A niche-modelling approach to understanding late-Quaternary megafaunal extinctions
Lead Research Organisation:
Durham University
Department Name: Biological and Biomedical Sciences
Abstract
A number of large mammals ('megafauna') became extinct towards, or following, the end of the last glacial period. The cause of their extinction, and in particular the reason why some species went extinct, whereas other large mammals survived to the present day in the same regions, remains a matter of debate amongst scientists. Two principal hypotheses have been advanced to account for the extinctions. Firstly, it is suggested that the major climatic changes and associated ecological upheavals of the end of the glacial stage resulted in the conditions to which the species were adapted no longer being available to them. Secondly, given the coincidence of the extinctions with an increasing population and expanding geographical range of humans, it is suggested that human activities, principally the pressures exerted upon the megafaunal populations by hunting, caused the extinctions. We propose to adopt a new approach to investigating these extinctions and to discriminating between these alternative explanations. Our research will uniquely combine: (i) detailed dating information from high quality radiocarbon dates made directly on fossils of megafaunal species (ii) simulations of past climate for the periods of interest made using the same kind of climate model as is used to simulate potential future climates; and (iii) evidence of megafaunal species' habitats and diets. The latter will be inferred from: (i) simulations of past vegetation; (ii) records of past vegetation; and (iii) those rare instances where fossils of megafaunal species are found directly associated with plant remains, notably in the case of fossils from the permafrost in which the stomach contents are preserved. We will use these data to construct models relating the megafaunal species' geographical ranges to climate, habitat and components of their diet. We will then use these models to simulate the changing potential range of each species. The models and these simulations will enable us to assess the series of hypotheses, testing of which is the principal aim of our study. Our study will encompass all of northern Eurasia and North America, enabling us to include the complete geographical ranges of species that ranged across both continents in the past, and will extend from about 50,000 years ago to about 5,000 years ago. In addition to studying a range of extinct species, including herbivores, carnivores and omnivores, we will also examine a comparable range of species that survive to the present day. In these cases we will also use data recording the species' current geographical distributions. By examining both extinct and surviving species we will be able to make critical comparisons that will provide insight into the factors determining which species survived and which suffered extinction. The results of our study will help elucidate the relative importance of environmental, especially climatic, change, of the ecological characteristics of the species themselves, and of human activities, in causing the extinctions.
Publications
Johnson K
(2011)
Climate Change and Biosphere Response: Unlocking the Collections Vault
in BioScience
Hoogakker B
(2016)
Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr
in Climate of the Past
Russell D
(2014)
Beyond climate envelopes: bio-climate modelling accords with observed 25-year changes in seabird populations of the British Isles
in Diversity and Distributions
Stuart A
(2014)
Late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions on the continents: a short review
in Geological Journal
Huntley B
(2012)
Species distribution models indicate contrasting late-Quaternary histories for Southern and Northern Hemisphere bird species
in Global Ecology and Biogeography
Ohlemüller R
(2011)
Potential source and sink locations for climate-driven species range shifts in Europe since the Last Glacial Maximum
in Global Ecology and Biogeography
Huntley B
(2014)
Suborbital climatic variability and centres of biological diversity in the Cape region of southern Africa
in Journal of Biogeography
Magyari E
(2010)
Holocene persistence of wooded steppe in the Great Hungarian Plain
in Journal of Biogeography
Huntley B
(2016)
Explaining patterns of avian diversity and endemicity: climate and biomes of southern Africa over the last 140,000 years
in Journal of Biogeography
Description | Modelling of last glacial vegetation using a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) has shown the extreme sensitivity of vegetation structure and composition to the contrasting climatic conditions of stadial and interstadial intervals. Given the short duration of interstadials, and observed rates of post-glacial range expansion by trees, we propose that the millennial fluctuations of last glacial climate were key to the persistence of open, largely treeless ecosystems on the northern continents, with relatively high productivity of herbaceous plants able to support the glacial megaherbivore assemblage. |
Exploitation Route | Our findings have relevance to the responses of ecosystems to anthropogenic climatic change. |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | Project Partner on Standard Grant |
Amount | £1 (GBP) |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 10/2016 |
End | 09/2019 |
Description | Talk to the Amateur Geological Society on Mammoth Extinction |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
Results and Impact | Prof. Adrian Lister delivered a talk to members of the Amateur Geological Society on the topic of 'Mammoth Extinction'. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Appeared on Channel 4 documentary 'Britain's Last Mammoths' |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Prof. Adrian Lister appeared on Channel 4 as a participant in the documentary programme 'Britain's Last Mammoths'. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | BBC Radio Shropshire interview |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | BBC Radio Shropshire interview of Prof. Adrian Lister relating to a talk he was to deliver later the same day at the Shropshire Hills Discovery centre; the talk was on 'The Condover Mammoths'. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Nature Live at the NHM on Mammoth Extinction |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Prof. Adrian Lister presented a 'Nature Live' event at the Natural History Museum, London, on the topic of 'Mammoth Extinction'. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Talk at Shropshire Hills Discovery centre on the Condover mammoths |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Prof. Adrian Lister delivered a talk at the Shropshire Hills Discovery centre on 'The Condover Mammoths'. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |