The future of the Indian monsoon
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology
Abstract
The Indian monsoon is one of the most dramatic components of the Earth's climate system. It provides around 80% of annual rainfall in the Indian region, home to more than one billion people, making accurate forecasting of its timing, intensity and duration vital for agriculture and industry, which is forming an increasing proportion of the Indian economy. The Indian monsoon varies on many different timescales: extreme rainfall events can bring cities to a standstill, monsoon 'breaks' lasting several weeks can destroy crops, and on seasonal timescales events like El Nino can cause drought. Our understanding of these different variations in the monsoon is limited, and the computer models used to simulate them are often inadequate. Furthermore, our understanding of what will happen to the monsoon, its variations and drivers and the interactions between them in a warming climate has not been properly addressed. This fellowship will help determine how the Indian monsoon will change in response to human-induced forcing by focussing on changes to the mean monsoon and its distribution, changes to its different timescales of variability, and the relationships between these different timescales of variability. It will also examine how errors in our computer models of the climate system can affect the simulation of the monsoon. The result will be the capability to produce more reliable forecasts in the short and long term, thus also enabling more useful adaptation to human-induced change. The fellowship will be undertaken at the Department of Meteorology in the University of Reading, an institute internationally renowned for its expertise in weather and climate research in the tropics. Advanced techniques will be used to compare output from several state-of-the-art models of the ocean and atmosphere with observations from raingauge networks and satellite datasets. Experiments will be performed using the Met Office Hadley Centre model on high performance supercomputing facilities to find the causes of changes to the monsoon. By working with the Met Office, the results from this work will feed into the Joint Climate Research Programme, and regular contact with scientists in India will ensure that immediate benefits from this work can be seen. This fellowship directly addresses NERC themes and key areas of research identified by UK and EU funders and the LWEC (Living With Environmental Change) programme.
Organisations
Publications
Zhang W
(2014)
Increasing autumn drought over southern China associated with ENSO regime shift
in Geophysical Research Letters
Williams C
(2013)
RMetS conference workshop: monsoons and their teleconnections
in Atmospheric Science Letters
Turner A
(2016)
Local and Remote Impacts of Aerosol Species on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in a GCM
in Journal of Climate
Turner A
(2012)
Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon
in Nature Climate Change
Turner A
(2011)
The effect of Arabian Sea optical properties on SST biases and the South Asian summer monsoon in a coupled GCM
in Climate Dynamics
Turner A
(2010)
Using idealized snow forcing to test teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon in the Hadley Centre GCM
in Climate Dynamics
Sperber K
(2012)
The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century
in Climate Dynamics
Sperber K
(2017)
The Global Monsoon System - Research and Forecast
Prakash S
(2015)
Seasonal intercomparison of observational rainfall datasets over India during the southwest monsoon season COMPARISON OF MONSOON RAINFALL
in International Journal of Climatology
Marathayil D
(2013)
Systematic winter sea-surface temperature biases in the northern Arabian Sea in HiGEM and the CMIP3 models
in Environmental Research Letters
Description | The fellowship examined the future of the Indian monsoon under climate change. While the consensus from research is that the monsoon will be robust, i.e. largely unchanged in respect to projected increases in greenhouse gas emissions, there are several uncertainties arising from other human-induced emissions, such as aerosol pollutants. These could result in reduced monsoon rainfall in the future, and may also have contributed to declining rainfall already over the last few decades. Furthermore, it is very uncertain how variations in the monsoon from week-to-week will change in the future. |
Exploitation Route | As described in the narrative impact, results of this research have been highly cited in the 5th IPCC report. |
Sectors | Aerospace Defence and Marine Agriculture Food and Drink Energy Environment |
Description | Results from Fellowship have been well-cited in the IPCC Fifth Assessment report, providing guidance on outcomes for the monsoon under changing climate. Findings have also informed subsequent (ongoing work) in the NERC SAPRISE project NE/I022841/1 or NE/I022469/1 regarding relative role of GHG and aerosol emissions in behaviour of South Asian monsoon over the 20th century. |
First Year Of Impact | 2012 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | Improved Indo-UK capability for seamless forecasting of monsoon rainfall: from days to the season |
Amount | £186,250 (GBP) |
Funding ID | MM/SERP/Univ_Reading_UK/2013/INT-13/002 |
Organisation | Ministry of Earth Sciences |
Sector | Public |
Country | India |
Start | 06/2014 |
End | 06/2017 |
Description | Interaction of Convective Organisation and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS) |
Amount | £1,100,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/L01386X/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2015 |
End | 12/2018 |
Description | Monsoon climate change talk given at the annual Cockcroft-Walton special lecture series jointly hosted by the Indian Physics Association (IPA) & Institute of Physics (IOP), University of Hyderabad, 28 October 2020. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Monsoon climate change talk given at the annual Cockcroft-Walton special lecture series jointly hosted by the Indian Physics Association (IPA) & Institute of Physics (IOP), University of Hyderabad, 28 October 2020. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S95tGnzC4SU |
Description | Warming Indian Ocean, weaker Indian monsoon. Quoted in article published in the India Climate Dialogue website |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Solicited quotes published in blog article relating to a high profile research article written by international colleagues. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2015/06/16/warming-indian-ocean-weakening-monsoon/ |