Understanding past, present and future climate change in the 'Greater Mediterranean' area: Building confidence in uncertain climate projections
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology
Abstract
One of the most important challenges facing society today is the question of how best to adapt to climate change. This adaption usually takes place locally, on a regional or national level, and reliable projections of regional climate change are clearly a prerequisite for developing a robust adaption strategy. The need for this information is perhaps nowhere more pressing than in the Mediterranean, which is an area anticipated to be a hotspot of climate change, and where the combined pressure of a changing climate coupled to a rapidly increasing population is expected to cause increased drought, crop failure and environmentally-forced human migration in the coming century. Clearly the success (or otherwise) of climate change adaption in the 'Greater Mediterranean' region (stretching from Europe to North Africa and from the eastern North Atlantic to the Middle East) will have profound social impacts on both global and regional scales. In order to produce reliable projections of climate change, it is not sufficient just to run climate models, even state-of-the-art ones. While over 90% of the climate models used in the recent IPCC fourth assessment report (Solomon et al, 2007) show a strong reduction in winter precipitation over much of the Mediterranean (mean reduction ~20%), the detailed patterns will depend on the response of the storm tracks which describe the eastward passage of cyclonic weather systems across the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean basins. As such, it is difficult to reconcile the inter-model agreement on 21st century precipitation change over the Mediterranean with the inter-model disagreement on the future of the North Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. There remain too many unanswered questions regarding the behaviour of these storm tracks, raising the important question: How much confidence should we have in projections of Mediterranean climate change if the fundamental processes controlling the Mediterranean storm track on climate timescales are poorly understood? This question applies as much to the use of climate models for seasonal forecasting or for the reconstruction past climates as it does to 21st century climates. At present there is a poor understanding of how the Mediterranean storm track is 'controlled' by the interaction of local processes (e.g., mountains, land-sea contrast, moisture availability) and the large-scale atmospheric flow (e.g., the circulation over the North Atlantic area). Case studies, conceptual models and theory provide some insight, but it is essential that this knowledge can be applied more generally to the complex atmospheric flow patterns seen in the Mediterranean. There is therefore a pressing need to be able to bridge the gap between theoretical concepts or case-studies and the complex situations seen in observations or state-of-the-art climate model projections. This proposal sets out to address this important gap in our understanding of the Mediterranean storm track. In particular, it proposes a systematic investigation of the fundamental processes using advanced climate models but with simplified surface properties that capture the essence of the real system while reducing unnecessary spatial complexity. The physical understanding developed in this manner will then be used to better examine existing state-of-the-art climate projections for the 21st century, present day variability, and the changes seen over the last 12,000 years. The understanding gained will be of wide practical use (see the Impacts summary and plan). Extensive links, both with climate scientists and also across disciplines, are planned and have already begun to be established in order to communicate the research effectively.
People |
ORCID iD |
David Brayshaw (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Brayshaw D
(2011)
The Basic Ingredients of the North Atlantic Storm Track. Part II: Sea Surface Temperatures
in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Lavers D
(2011)
Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers UK WINTER FLOODS AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
in Geophysical Research Letters
Brayshaw D
(2011)
The impact of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on wind power generation and its potential predictability: A case study over the UK
in Renewable Energy
Brayshaw D
(2011)
Wind generation's contribution to supporting peak electricity demand - meteorological insights
in Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability
Saulière J
(2012)
Further Investigation of the Impact of Idealized Continents and SST Distributions on the Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks
in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Woollings T
(2012)
Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean-atmosphere coupling
in Nature Geoscience
Wade A
(2012)
A new method for the determination of Holocene palaeohydrology
in Journal of Hydrology
Ely C
(2013)
Implications of the North Atlantic Oscillation for a UK-Norway Renewable power system
in Energy Policy
Lavers D
(2013)
Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain
in Environmental Research Letters
Kubik M
(2013)
Exploring the role of reanalysis data in simulating regional wind generation variability over Northern Ireland
in Renewable Energy
Zappa G
(2014)
Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models
in Climate Dynamics
Lynch K
(2014)
Verification of European Subseasonal Wind Speed Forecasts
in Monthly Weather Review
Cannon D
(2015)
Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: A 33 year case study in Great Britain
in Renewable Energy
Description | Please refer to Final Report submitted via JeS in Dec 2012. |
Exploitation Route | Please refer to Final Report submitted via JeS in Dec 2012. |
Sectors | Energy Other |
Description | Please refer to Final Report submitted via JeS in Dec 2012. |
Description | CASE partnership on NERC quota student |
Amount | £6,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Centrica |
Sector | Private |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 09/2010 |
End | 01/2014 |
Description | NERC PURE |
Amount | £19,590 (GBP) |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Department | NERC PURE programme |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2014 |
End | 04/2014 |
Description | National Grid |
Amount | £1 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NGET00016 |
Organisation | National Grid UK |
Sector | Private |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 07/2012 |
End | 07/2015 |
Description | Visiting fellowship at GFDL/Princeton |
Organisation | National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration |
Department | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) |
Country | United States |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | 5-month visiting fellowship at GFDL/Princeton |
Collaborator Contribution | Travel costs and USD$2000/month subsistence to cover accommodation costs |
Impact | Paper in preparation on atmospheric impacts of ocean poleward heat transport |
Start Year | 2012 |