Using inter-glacials to assess future sea-level scenarios (iGlass)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Southampton
Department Name: Sch of Ocean and Earth Science
Abstract
The vulnerability of extensive near-coastal habitation, infrastructure, and trade makes global sea-level rise a major global concern for society. The UK coastline, for example, has ~£150 billion of assets at risk from coastal flooding, of which with £75 billion in London alone. Consequently, most nations have developed/ implemented protection plans, which commonly use ranges of sea-level rise estimates from global warming scenarios such as those published by IPCC, supplemented by worst-case values from limited geological studies. UKCP09 provides the most up-to-date guidance on UK sea-level rise scenarios and includes a low probability, high impact range for maximum UK sea level rise for use in contingency planning and in considerations regarding the limits to potential adaptation (the H++ scenario). UKCP09 emphasises that the H++ scenario is unlikely for the next century, but it does introduce significant concerns when planning for longer-term future sea-level rise. Currently, the range for H++ is set to 0.9-1.9 m of rise by the end of the 21st century. This range of uncertainty is large (with vast planning and financial implications), and - more critically - it has no robust statistical basis. It is important, therefore, to better understand the processes controlling the maximum sea-level rise estimate for the future on these time-scales. This forms the overarching motivation for the consortium project proposed here. iGlass is a broad-ranging interdisciplinary project that will integrate field data and modelling, in order to study the response of ice volume/sea level to different climate states during the last five interglacials, which include times with significantly higher sea level than the present. This will identify the likelihood of reduced ice cover over Greenland and West Antarctica, an important constraint on future sea-level projections. A key outcome will be to place sound limits on the likely ice-volume contribution to maximum sea-level rise estimates for the future. Our project is guided by three key questions: Q1. What do palaeo-sea level positions reveal about the global ice-volume/sea-level changes during a range of different interglacial climate states? Q2. What were the rates of sea-level rise in past interglacials, and to what extent are these relevant for future change, given the different climate forcing? Q3. Under a range of given (IPCC) climate projection scenarios, what are the projected limits to maximum sea-level rise over the next few centuries when accounting for ice-sheet contributions? The research will directly inform decision-making processes regarding flood risk management in the UK and abroad. In this respect, the project benefits from the close co-operation with scientists and practitioners in the UK Environment Agency, UKCIP, the UK insurance industry, as well as the wider global academic and user communities.
People |
ORCID iD |
Eelco Rohling (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Yu J
(2014)
Deep South Atlantic carbonate chemistry and increased interocean deep water exchange during last deglaciation
in Quaternary Science Reviews
Rohling E
(2013)
Quantitative assessment of glacial fluctuations in the level of Lake Lisan, Dead Sea rift
in Quaternary Science Reviews
Rowe M
(2014)
Anomalous MIS 7 sea level recorded on Bermuda
in Quaternary Science Reviews
Hibbert F
(2016)
Coral indicators of past sea-level change: A global repository of U-series dated benchmarks
in Quaternary Science Reviews
Sivan D
(2016)
Eastern Mediterranean sea levels through the last interglacial from a coastal-marine sequence in northern Israel
in Quaternary Science Reviews
Bates S
(2014)
Hydrographic variations in deep ocean temperature over the mid-Pleistocene transition
in Quaternary Science Reviews
Rohling E
(2017)
Differences between the last two glacial maxima and implications for ice-sheet, d18O, and sea-level reconstructions
in Quaternary Science Reviews
Capron E
(2014)
Temporal and spatial structure of multi-millennial temperature changes at high latitudes during the Last Interglacial
in Quaternary Science Reviews
Rogerson M
(2012)
Paleoceanography of the Atlantic-Mediterranean exchange: Overview and first quantitative assessment of climatic forcing
in Reviews of Geophysics
Medina-Elizalde M
(2012)
Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction in precipitation.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Rohling EJ
(2013)
A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise.
in Scientific reports
Description | There have been important advances about the sea-level variability in geological periods that are relatively similar to the present, and spin-off that has helped a better understanding of climate sensitivity. Projections of sea-level change into the future have also been obtained from the project. A final paper on the latter is almost completed. |
Exploitation Route | The climate sensitivity and projections of sea level change into the future are used among researchers studying anthropogenic climate change, including IPCC-AR5. Additionally, low probability-high impact scenarios are of value to the policy, coastal management, engineering, energy (e.g. nuclear) and reinsurance sectors for long-term/extreme scenario planning purposes. |
Sectors | Aerospace Defence and Marine Communities and Social Services/Policy Construction Energy Environment |
URL | http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ |
Description | The outcome from the project are being used in the reassessment of the H++ extreme sea-level scenario in the UK |
First Year Of Impact | 2016 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Societal |
Description | IPCC AR5 (expert reviewer and contributing author) |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
URL | http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ |
Description | Australian Laureate Fellowship |
Amount | $3,129,070 (AUD) |
Funding ID | FL120100050 |
Organisation | Australian Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | Australia |
Start | 03/2013 |
End | 02/2018 |
Title | Coral database |
Description | Synthesis and standardization of U-series dated coral sea level indicators |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2016 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | none to date - use within the sea level, glacio-isostatic and climate communities |
URL | http://www.highstand.org/erohling/ejrhome.htm |
Title | Penultimate Glacial Maximum Ice Margins |
Description | This is a compilation of glacio-morphological mapping and dating of the penultimate glaciation in Eurasia and North America. We only include sites where the authors specifically correlate glacial sediments or features to the PGM, where this is either identified as MIS 6 or Saalian/Illinoian glacial episodes. We include any dating constraints (OSL, U-series, tephra or palaeomagnetic) of PGM glacial deposits. Note we make no assessment as to the reliability of the ages. Relative age control for glacial sediments has been achieved using the stratigraphic position of the glacial deposits relative to interglacial deposits (e.g., U-series dated peats), tephra (e.g., the Old Crow tephra in North America provides an upper age limit for underlying glacial deposits) and palaeomagnetic excursions. Supplement to: Rohling*, Hibbert*, Williams* et al., 2017. Differences between the last two glacial maxima and implications for ice-sheet, d18O, and sea-level reconstructions. Quaternary Science Reviewshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.09.009 (* = joint first authors) |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2017 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | This collation of penultimate glacial glaciogenic sediments, or other dated deposits, under pins the glacio-isostatic experiments in Rohling et al., 2017 |
URL | https://figshare.com/articles/Penultimate_Glacial_Maximum_Ice_Margins/5131963/1 |
Description | ACSA |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Talk and discussion sessions at Australian Curriculum devilment committee for Highschools, on environmental sustainability and climate change. Advice to Highschool curriculum development on potential Oceans and Climate topic, state of South Australia Multiple further requests for information Talks at Highschool in Canberra |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Australian Broadcasting telephone interview |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | telephone interview following the publication of Marino et al., 2015 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://www.highstand.org/erohling/Rohling-papers/Ice%20sheet%20collapse%20135,000%20years%20ago%20to... |
Description | BBC (Wales) interview (Stanford) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | radio interview following publication of Marino et al., 2015 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://www.highstand.org/erohling/Rohling-papers/Stanford-BBC-good-evening-Wales-10june2015.mp3 |
Description | Channel 9 News |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Sparked some enquiries afterward - |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://www.highstand.org/erohling/Rohling-papers/Rising%20sea%20levels.mp4 |
Description | Earth Magazine |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | - |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
URL | http://www.earthmagazine.org/article/new-climate-record-challenges-ideas-about-recent-glaciations |
Description | Hobart Music for a warming World event, opening seminar |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I was asked to open the week-long event in Hobart, Tasmania, titled: "music for a warming world", with a 1 hr address on the basics of climate change, and how we may try to fix the problem. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.climatetasmania.org/wp-content/uploads/MWW_Tas_-Events_Flyer.pdf |
Description | New Zealand Hearald article |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | New Zealand Hearld article resulting for the press release associated with Marino et al., 2015. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://www.highstand.org/erohling/Rohling-papers/What%20causes%20ancient%20oceans%20to%20rise%3F%20-... |
Description | Public seminar Mt Stromlo |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Public talk on climate and sea-level change awareness, explaining what is happening, how we know this, and what the future may bring |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Radio Ecoshock interview, Canada (20 minutes) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Enquiries (international) with some further questions Changes in views expressed to me by some of the audience |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
URL | http://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_Rohling.mp3 |
Description | Radio New zealand |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Sparked discussion afterward Enquiries from listeners for more information |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
URL | http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/nights/audio/2596497/starting-an-ice-age |
Description | Science Daily article |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Science Daily article resulting from press release associated with Marino et al., 2015 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://www.highstand.org/erohling/Rohling-papers/Dramatic%20ice%20sheet%20collapse%20135%20thousand%... |
Description | The Australian |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Participation to discussion piece on climate change - |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
URL | http://www.highstand.org/erohling/Rohling-papers/No-sure-bets-in-the-climate-debate%7CThe_Australian... |
Description | The Conversation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Feedback comments Enquiries for further information and some discussion |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
URL | https://theconversation.com/why-ice-sheets-will-keep-melting-for-centuries-to-come-32171 |
Description | The Conversation - August'16 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | In this article I outline for a broad, general audience how emissions have already exceeded the total allowed for staying within the Paris climate targets. The Conversation has a global readership among professions and policy makers. Rohling, E.J., Without a longer-term view, the Paris Agreement will lock in warming for centuries. The Conversation, August 24, 2016. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | https://theconversation.com/without-a-longer-term-view-the-paris-agreement-will-lock-in-warming-for-... |
Description | stakeholder event (coastal managers, engineers etc) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | improved understanding (both scientists and invited stakeholders - coastal managers, Environment Agency, Natural England, Eon etc.) around issues of extreme sea level change (i.e. the H++ scenario). A series of short presentations was followed by lively and informed group discussions. raised awareness of the H++ scenario amongst invited stakeholders: how derived; factors influencing the inputs an outputs; and how work undertaken by the iGlass Consortium could inform future updates of the scenario. Useful discussions on the needs and norms of information exchange for coastal managers, planners etc. (timescales, spatial scale, rates and magnitudes of sea level change). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |