Is the Arctic Methane budget changing?
Lead Research Organisation:
Royal Holloway University of London
Department Name: Earth Sciences
Abstract
Methane (CH4) is the second (after CO2) most important greenhouse gas. Sources of CH4 to the atmosphere, both natural and human-driven, have been intensively studied and are now well established; however, their global and regional estimates still suffer from large uncertainties. The region above the Arctic Circle is very important from this perspective because of a unique combination of CH4 emission sources which are active now, e.g. wetlands and forest fires, and those which may become active in the future owing to regional climate change. Potentially important future sources include thawing permafrost soils and CH4-rich oceanic sediments (clathrates). Since the Arctic has been warming much faster compared to the rest of the world, this may trigger various changes in the active CH4 sources as well as those that represent large pools of carbon (permafrost soil) or gaseous CH4 (clathrates). The goal of the proposed project is thus to locate and quantify major sources of Arctic CH4 emissions to the atmosphere and contribute to understanding how these emissions may change with further regional climate warming. At present, the number of Arctic CH4 measurements is simply not sufficient to either make reliable estimates of regional CH4 sources or to understand recent trends in atmospheric CH4 concentrations. In addition to scarce measurements, most Arctic CH4 studies have been supported by campaign-based observations of the local processes responsible for CH4 emissions, mostly in summer when the region is most accessible. But owing to the episodic, and in some instances seasonal, nature of most CH4 source emissions paired against sporadic campaign-based sampling, it has not been possible to produce reliable emission estimates of different Arctic CH4 sources. To address this problem, we propose to establish year-round continuous measurements of CH4 concentration and isotopic composition in ambient air, and to synchronise campaign-based studies with the expected seasonality and location of the CH4 source emissions. Since CH4 emitted from different sources has distinct isotopic 'signatures', it is possible to attribute the observed emissions to the particular sources. This approach requires a retrospective analysis of the air mass trajectories to establish the origin of air with the observed isotopic signature. To be more specific, we propose to establish continuous CH4 measurements at Teriberka, Russia (69.2N, 35.1E; NW Russian Arctic coast), which will provide new insight into central Eurasian Arctic processes. In addition, we plan to carry out detailed isotopic studies of ambient air from several locations in the European and Russian Arctic. These will be compared with records of Arctic air reaching the UK at measurement stations at Barra (Scotland) and Weybourne (Norfolk). Combining our datasets with those from the small number of other Arctic stations of our international colleagues, we will determine whether ongoing changes in the Arctic regional climate are resulting in increased CH4 emissions. Specifically, we will use these concentration and isotopic data with the p-TOMCAT chemical transport and Met Office NAME models to locate Arctic CH4 sources and quantify any interannual changes in emissions. In addition to these main objectives, we plan to make regular measurements of atmospheric concentrations of other gases (CO2, CO, N2O, SF6, H2, O2/N2 and Ar/N2) from glass bottles collected at several Arctic locations. Such measurements will not require additional collections or costs as they will be made in parallel to the CH4 measurements, improving cost efficiency. Measurement of other gas species will help to assess the linked Arctic processes and source emissions of these gases, both on land and at sea, e.g. fire emissions (increased CO), ocean warming, expansion of oceanic 'dead zone' (due to decreased amounts of dissolved O2) and thawing permafrost soils and wetlands.
Publications
France J
(2016)
Measurements of d 13 C in CH 4 and using particle dispersion modeling to characterize sources of Arctic methane within an air mass
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Ganesan A
(2019)
Advancing Scientific Understanding of the Global Methane Budget in Support of the Paris Agreement
in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Ganshin A
(2012)
A global coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian model and 1 × 1 km CO<sub>2</sub> surface flux dataset for high-resolution atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> transport simulations
in Geoscientific Model Development
Graves C
(2015)
Fluxes and fate of dissolved methane released at the seafloor at the landward limit of the gas hydrate stability zone offshore western Svalbard
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Hernández-Paniagua I
(2015)
Diurnal, seasonal, and annual trends in atmospheric CO2 at southwest London during 2000-2012: Wind sector analysis and comparison with Mace Head, Ireland
in Atmospheric Environment
Lan X
(2021)
What do we know about the global methane budget? Results from four decades of atmospheric CH4 observations and the way forward.
in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
Myhre C
(2016)
Extensive release of methane from Arctic seabed west of Svalbard during summer 2014 does not influence the atmosphere
in Geophysical Research Letters
Nisbet E
(2019)
Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth in the 4 Years 2014-2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement
in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Nisbet E
(2016)
Rising atmospheric methane: 2007-2014 growth and isotopic shift
in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Description | The Arctic methane budget has been studied, using C isotopes to identify major sources of methane. The results demonstrate that in summer the main Arctic source is from wetland emissions and in winter the major source is leakage from gas systems and human activities. There is no evidence for significant emissions of methane reaching the air from hydrate sources. |
Exploitation Route | The work has significant implications for those studying hydrates in the Arctic, and in developing models of future Arctic responses to climate change. The recent Arctic Council AMAP report draws on our work. |
Sectors | Energy Environment Government Democracy and Justice Other |
Description | The work on the Arctic methane budget has contributed to a major report collected by Environment Canada in Canada's chairmanship of the Arctic Council. The work has also been reported in the media and to policymakers in the UK. The work has helped initiate a major new Norwegian methane project. |
First Year Of Impact | 2015 |
Sector | Energy,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Cultural Societal Economic Policy & public services |
Description | Member: Science Advisory Panel, UN International Methane Emissions Observatory (specified commitment in the UN Global Methane Pledge) |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Impact | UN IMEO supports a series of experimental studies, especially with aircraft, to locate and quantify major sources of methane emisisons, especially from the energy industry. |
URL | https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/energy/what-we-do/imeo |
Description | Atmospheric sampling with the Norwegian Inst. for Air Research (NILU) |
Organisation | Norwegian Institute for Air Research |
Country | Norway |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Joint Arctic air sampling at Zeppelin, Spitsbergen and Antarctic sampling at Troll base. |
Collaborator Contribution | Collaborative isotopic analysis: NILU collect air samples and RHUL analyses them for d13C in methane. |
Impact | Collaborative papers, reported in publications |
Description | Award winner, 'The Engineer'/EPSRC Collaborate to Innovate awards. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Award winner, The Engineer, Innovation prize |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | https://www.theengineer.co.uk/collaborate-to-innovate-winners-annnounced/ |
Description | BBC World Service documentary - radio. "Discovery - cheating the atmsophere" |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Participation in BBC World Service documentary "Disocvery - cheating the atmosphere". Long interview on the problems of assessing greenhouse gas emissions inventories for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - Paris Agreement. Broadcast several times in second week of Dec, 2017 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvpfz |
Description | Financial Times 'Big Read': Methane hunters: what explains the surge in the potent greenhouse gas? Aug 23, 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Interview and discussions with Financial Times climate team - FT 'Big Read' |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.ft.com/content/9ef195d6-dcc3-4378-bb35-2721981d6416 |
Description | LONCON3 World Science fiction convention |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Several Activities - all invited. 1. Exhibition of methane measurement "Discover your inner cow" sampling methane in breath. 2. Panel discussion on climate in science fiction 3. Panel discussion on sci fiction and policy. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | NERC UnEarthed Showcase |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | NERC UnEarthed Showcase event, Edinburgh. MOYA presentation on the Global methane budget, focussed on school age students. ~7000 schoolchildren and many members of the general public. 17,18,19 and 20 Novermber 2017 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.nerc.ac.uk/latest/events/archive/unearthed/ |
Description | Public Lecture: 56th Annual Bennett Lecture, Leicester Literary and Philosophical Society |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Public lecture - annual 'named' lecture of the Leicester Literary and Philosophical Society, Univ. of Leicester |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://www2.le.ac.uk/hosted/litandphil/documents-1/transactions/transactions_2015 |
Description | Royal Holloway Science festival 2015 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Several activities - all coordinated by us; 1. fossil trail 2. Volcano exhibit and eruption 3. lecture 4. Gold panning |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |