Deep crustal structure of the North Anatolian Fault Zone and the earthquake cycle
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: School of Earth and Environment
Abstract
The Earth's surface is broken into numerous tectonic plates, which are continually moving. The movement of the plates relative to each other is the source for most earthquake activity on Earth, which is typically focussed into narrow fault zones where the plates collide, pull apart, or slide past each other. Within the fault zones the deformation in the upper 10-15 km of the Earth's crust is localised onto narrow fault planes. Earthquakes occur when the stresses on the fault planes caused by plate motions overcome frictional resistance, and these represent significant hazard for communities living in fault zones - in the first decade of the 21st century alone, earthquakes killed 700,000 people. In strike-slip fault zones, where plates slide past each other, earthquakes typically only break the upper crust. We know that the lower crust (deeper than 10-15 km) must be deforming continuously, because we can measure how the ground surface deforms between earthquakes. But because rock samples or other direct measurements cannot easily be obtained from these depths, we have a poor understanding of how the lower crust behaves and influences the loading of stresses in the upper crust to cause major earthquakes.We propose an inter-disciplinary project with the aim of understanding the earthquake loading cycle (how stresses build through plate motions and are released in earthquakes) along a major European fault, the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkey. The NAFZ is a strike-slip fault comparable in length and slip rate to the San Andreas Fault in California. It crosses a densely populated region of northern Turkey and constitutes a major seismic hazard - over 1000 km of the fault ruptured during 12 large earthquakes in the 20th century. The western end of the NAFZ ruptured in two major earthquakes in 1999 at Izmit on 17 August and Düzce, 87 days later, killing more than 30,000 people. A seismic gap remains south of Istanbul, an urban centre of more than 10 million people, where there is ~60% chance of significant shaking within the next few decades (Parsons et al. 2000).We aim to measure the properties of the fault in the lower crust to set constraints on the earthquake loading cycle along the NAFZ. The project involves (i) a novel high-resolution seismic experiment aimed at resolving the fault zone structure at depth, (ii) geological analysis of an exhumed fault zone representative of the mid to lower crust under the fault, and (iii) analysis of satellite measurements of surface displacement. The results from these studies will be used to build computational models of the earthquake loading cycle. In this project we aim to explain how the movements of the tectonic plates interact with the fault zone and how this is affected by the lower crustal structure. This will ultimately contribute to better assessment of the seismic hazard associated with large fault zone. The resulting synthesis of the geophysical and geological data together with geodynamical modelling will guide future investigations for other major strike-slip fault zones.
Planned Impact
To ensure we have immediate impact outside academia, and to increase the uptake of the results by end users, we propose several specific measures that will benefit the following groups:(i) Turkish Civil DefenceOur project partners at the Kandilli Observatory are directly responsible for monitoring earthquakes in Turkey and advising the Civil Defence General Directorate on seismic hazard. We will assist the Kandilli Observatory in running a workshop aimed bringing together scientists, NGOs and Civil Defence officials to review current provisions in Turkey, discuss earthquake preparedness education and propose updates in light of the latest scientific understanding of earthquake hazard.(ii) Turkish earthquake educationAfter the devastating 1999 earthquakes, project partners at the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, with assistance from Geohazards International, set up a successful Disaster Preparedness Education Program in Turkish schools. This is now part of the national curriculum in Turkey and operates nationwide. We will build an additional module that will form part of this scheme, and run it initially as a pilot project in 5 schools located near the North Anatolian Fault. The scheme will be aimed at advanced school pupils aged 16-18, and will be based on the highly successful UK Seismometers in Schools program. We aim to inspire the next generation of Turkish earthquake scientists.(iii) Local Yorkshire schoolsThe University of Leeds has acted as a local hub for the UK Seismometers in Schools program, which now runs in ~15 local Yorkshire schools. The schools are linked via a network and share information using a web portal. We propose to link the Turkish schools in our pilot project into this network, and set up an exchange program so that two outstanding pupils from the UK can visit Turkish schools to report back on how they live with earthquake hazard.(iv) Public Engagement with ScienceThe general public have a keen interest in earthquake science. The investigators have a very strong track record in communicating their scientific results through the media, work with local schools, and public events such as the Royal Society Summer Exhibition. We will continue this work with this project, and plan to exhibit at the 2014 Summer Exhibition on the theme "Living with earthquakes: how scientific knowledge can reduce risk".These measures are described in more detail in the 'Pathways to Impact' document along with key milestones and measures of success.
Organisations
- University of Leeds (Lead Research Organisation)
- Bogazici University (Collaboration)
- University of Bergen (Collaboration)
- University of Manitoba (Collaboration)
- University of Manitoba (Project Partner)
- Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (Project Partner)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Project Partner)
Publications
Yamasaki T
(2015)
Analysis of the spatial viscosity variation in the crust beneath the western North Anatolian Fault
in Journal of Geodynamics
Hussain E
(2018)
Constant strain accumulation rate between major earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault.
in Nature communications
Walters R
(2014)
Constraining crustal velocity fields with InSAR for Eastern Turkey: Limits to the block-like behavior of Eastern Anatolia
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
England P
(2016)
Constraints from GPS measurements on the dynamics of deformation in Anatolia and the Aegean
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Papaleo E
(2018)
Constraints on North Anatolian Fault Zone Width in the Crust and Upper Mantle From S Wave Teleseismic Tomography
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Taylor G
(2016)
Crustal imaging across the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the autocorrelation of ambient seismic noise
in Geophysical Research Letters
Frederiksen A
(2015)
Crustal thickness variations and isostatic disequilibrium across the North Anatolian Fault, western Turkey
in Geophysical Research Letters
Kahraman M
(2015)
Crustal-scale shear zones and heterogeneous structure beneath the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey, revealed by a high-density seismometer array
in Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Description | We successfully collected a seismic, geodynamic and geodetic dataset across the Northa Anatolian fault Zone. We started exploiting these datasets to understand the earthquake dynamics across this major continental strike slip fault. We are using new geodynamic modelling approaches and novel seismic data analysis to gain further insight into this important fault zone. The seismological data indicate extremely small scale changes of the crustal structure in the area of the North Anatolian Fault Zone on scale not yet reported. These exciting results helped to inform our geodynamical modeling of the dynamics of Fault Zones. Geological samples at an extinct fault zone with exhumed lower mantle crust have been sampled during two field seasons. These are currently analysed in Leeds and will be used in the seismological modeling. |
Exploitation Route | These results are potentially important for the study of earthquake hazard in Turkey We will use these data in scientific publications and presentations. We will discus key finding in due course with the Turkish partners working on earthquake hazard for the Istanbul region. |
Sectors | Environment Other |
URL | http://faultlab.leeds.ac.uk |
Description | This research represents fundamental research into the structure and dynamics of continental shear zones. A direct economic and societal impact cannot be identified. Currently the project is producing academic output. The research might have a long term impact on earthquake hazard estimates. |
First Year Of Impact | 2014 |
Sector | Education,Environment |
Impact Types | Societal |
Description | Geophysical Equipment Facility - SeisUK |
Amount | £200,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | GEFLoan-947 |
Organisation | Geophysical Equipment Facility |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2012 |
End | 11/2013 |
Description | World University Network Travel Grants |
Amount | £2,200 (GBP) |
Funding ID | 35007302 |
Organisation | Worldwide Universities Network |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 11/2013 |
End | 12/2013 |
Title | DANA dataset |
Description | Seismic dataset arising from deployment of temporary seismic array in the Sakarya region of Turkey during the period 2012-13 |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2012 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | New images of the crustal structure and the major faults on which the disastrous 1999 Izmit earthquake occurred; improved monitoring of microearthquakes in this region during the period of deployment |
Title | Seismological Data from NAFZ experiment |
Description | Seismic data collected from a network of 70 independently operating seismometers in Turkey. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2013 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Cooperation with Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, University of Manitoba, University of Bergen and Sakarya University |
URL | http://www.fdsn.org/networks/detail/YH_2012/ |
Description | Collaboration - Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute |
Organisation | Bogazici University |
Department | Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute |
Country | Turkey |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | We established a very fruitful collaboration with the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute of the Bogazici University in Istanbul. We collaborated successfully on deployment and service of a seismic array in the region. Members of KOERI will visit Leeds University in the summer to collaborate on several publications. |
Collaborator Contribution | Local expertise during field experiment. Vehicles for field experiment. Seismic field equipment. |
Impact | - Seismic field experiment. - Academic workshop - publications |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Collaboration University of Bergen |
Organisation | University of Bergen |
Country | Norway |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The research group at the university of Leeds provided the data input for the modeling and man power to install software and run models. |
Collaborator Contribution | Prof Rondenay provided algorithms and support for seismic scattering migration. |
Impact | Scientific publications are currently in preparation |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Research Visit Prof Frederiksen |
Organisation | University of Manitoba |
Country | Canada |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | 2 Week research of Prof Andrew Frederiksen (Uni. Manitoba) to Leeds. Prof Frederiksen is a named collaborator on the grant |
Collaborator Contribution | Prof Frederiksen provided the algorithms to perform scattering tomography for the collected seismic dataset. During the visit the Prof Frederiksen and Leeds staff active on the grant (Rost, Thompson) worked on an alternative method to resolve crustal structure through transfer functions. A paper with these results is currently under review with Geophysical Research Letters. |
Impact | Publication titled "Crustal thickness variations and isostatic disequilibrium across the North Anatolian Fault, western Turkey" under review with Geophysical Research Letters. |
Start Year | 2014 |
Title | oregano-ve |
Description | Software for modelling of viscoelastic deformation of faulted continuum materials, for application to the study of the seismic cycle in Earth Science |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2012 |
Impact | New understanding of the viscosity structure of the crust in the region beneath the North Anatolian Fault of Turkey which caused a disastrous earthquake in 1999. |
Description | 9 Eylül University |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | A university presentation to academic staff, postgraduate and undergraduate students. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Characterising the deep structure of an exhumed ductile shear zone via EBSD: The Uludag Massif, Turkey |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Oral presentation at 2014 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting (Vancouver, October 2014) Discussion with audience on results and interpretation |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Characterising the deep structure of an exhumed ductile shear zone via EBSD: The Uludag Massif, Turkey. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Poster presentation at Tectonic Studies Group Annual Meeting in January 2014 at Cardiff University. Discussion with audience on results and interpretation |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Crustal Structure of Western Anatolia and Eastern Marmara with Receiver Functions |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Oral presentation at CD-CAT symposium Discussion with audience on results and interpretation. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Moho topography beneath the Western Segment of KAFZ - Primarily Results from a Dense Seismic Arra |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Oral presentation at 5-th International Conference of young scientists and students, Baku, 15 November 2013 Discussion with audience on results and interpretation |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013,2014 |
Description | New Insights on the Crustal Structure beneath the Western Segment of NAF: Preliminary Results from a Dense Seismic Array |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Oral presentation at 7th Congress of the Balkan Geophysical Society, 7-10 October, 2013, Tiran, Albania. Discussion with audience on results and interpretation |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
Description | New images of the crust cut by the active North Anatolian Strike-Slip Fault Zone, Turke |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | engaged non-geophysicists in discussion University of Aberdeen School of Geosciences seminar |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Outreach: Istanbul - On the Brink of a Mega-Disaster |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | discussion and interest afterwards Outreach activity at: The Natural History Museaum Scarborough 6th form University of Leeds Science Festival |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Outreach: Istanbul - On the Brink of a Mega-Disaster |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | interest and discussion afterwards Outreach activities at BGS -Keyworth branch Open University - Walton Hall Branch University of Derby RocSoc - University of Leeds |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | The Earthquake Loading Cycle and the Deep Structure of the North Anatolian Fault |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Invited oral presentation at International Symposium for Geodesy for Earthquakes and Natural Hazards Discussion with audience on results and interpretation |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://genah2014.jpn.org/ |
Description | The crustal stress state beneath the western North Anatolian Fault: inferences from the earthquake cycle model |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Oral presentation at the 2014 Wegener conference on earth deformation and the study of earthquakes using geodesy and geodynamics Discussion with audience on results and interpretation |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://see.leeds.ac.uk/wegener/ |
Description | Variation in Postseismic Deformation After the 1999 Izmit and Düzce Earthquakes, Turkey |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Discussion with audience about results and interpretation Discussion about future research in this area. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Workshop - North Anatolian Fault Structure and Dynamics |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | 3-day workshop convening international researchers studying the structure and dynamics of the North Anatolian fault using a variety of scientific tools. >50 researchers attended with intense discussions about recent research results and developing ideas for future projects. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Çanakkale University |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | University presentation involving academic staff, postgraduate and undergradaute students. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |