iSTAR-C - Dynamical control on the response of Pine Island Glacier
Lead Research Organisation:
British Antarctic Survey
Department Name: Science Programmes
Abstract
It is expected that sea-level rise will impact coastal communities worldwide over the coming decades to centuries. In the UK, the vulnerability of coastal communities and assets is best characterised in terms of the likely frequency of the over-topping of sea-defences. For example, when they were built, the sea-defences for the city of London (including the Thames Barrier) were designed to protect London from all except the 1-in-1000 year flood event. A rise of 50 cm in global sea level will reduce this level of protection to 1-100 years, and a rise of 100 cm would reduce it to 1-in-10 years.
Pine Island Glacier is one of five glaciers in West Antarctica that are currently contributing sea-level rise at a significant and accelerating rate. The portion currently affected by thinning contains sufficient ice to raise global sea-level by around 25 cm - its neighbours account for another 50 cm.
Given the rate of ice-loss and the potential implications for sea-defence planning there is a clear requirement to understand and predict the future of Pine Island Glacier and its neighbours. However, as highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), understanding the way that dynamic changes are transmitted through the glaciers draining ice sheets is so poorly understood that the IPCC believed it was the least well understood, and potentially the largest, contribution to sea-level rise in the coming century.
ISTAR-C will directly address this lack of knowledge, by seeking to understand the processes that are responsible for transmitting the effect of thinning of the floating ice shelf, upstream such that thinning can now be seen on much of the trunk and tributaries of Pine Island Glacier.
ISTAR-C will also use the most up-to-date methods available to measure the properties (rock-type and water-content) of the bed beneath several locations on Pine Island Glacier to determine their influence on the propagation of thinning. We will test the hypothesis that it is these bed conditions that are responsible for the fact that the tributaries of Pine Island Glacier appear to be thinning at different rates. Testing this hypothesis will give us a much better understanding on which to predict the future magnitudes of ice-thinning rates for the glacier.
To achieve these objectives we will collect data from Pine Island Glacier during two field seasons. These will include precise measurement of variations in ice-flow from the ice-shelf up the glacier and into its tributaries. We will image the bed of the glacier using radar and seismic techniques, and use satellite remote sensing to measure the changing configuration of the glacier in areas that cannot be accessed on the ground. We will use the data we have collected to drive and verify a set of computer simulations of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier. Each of these will test a particular aspect of the glacier flow, and allow us to test our current knowledge and hypotheses against real data. The models that emerge from the exercise will be demonstrably more reliable in simulating past changes on the glacier, and thus have reduced uncertainty in predicting the future evolution of such changes, and the consequential contribution to sea-level rise.
Overall, this programme will deliver significant improvements in understanding of how glaciers in general interact with their beds, and very specific lessons about one of the most rapidly-changing and significant glaciers on the planet, Pine Island Glacier.
Pine Island Glacier is one of five glaciers in West Antarctica that are currently contributing sea-level rise at a significant and accelerating rate. The portion currently affected by thinning contains sufficient ice to raise global sea-level by around 25 cm - its neighbours account for another 50 cm.
Given the rate of ice-loss and the potential implications for sea-defence planning there is a clear requirement to understand and predict the future of Pine Island Glacier and its neighbours. However, as highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), understanding the way that dynamic changes are transmitted through the glaciers draining ice sheets is so poorly understood that the IPCC believed it was the least well understood, and potentially the largest, contribution to sea-level rise in the coming century.
ISTAR-C will directly address this lack of knowledge, by seeking to understand the processes that are responsible for transmitting the effect of thinning of the floating ice shelf, upstream such that thinning can now be seen on much of the trunk and tributaries of Pine Island Glacier.
ISTAR-C will also use the most up-to-date methods available to measure the properties (rock-type and water-content) of the bed beneath several locations on Pine Island Glacier to determine their influence on the propagation of thinning. We will test the hypothesis that it is these bed conditions that are responsible for the fact that the tributaries of Pine Island Glacier appear to be thinning at different rates. Testing this hypothesis will give us a much better understanding on which to predict the future magnitudes of ice-thinning rates for the glacier.
To achieve these objectives we will collect data from Pine Island Glacier during two field seasons. These will include precise measurement of variations in ice-flow from the ice-shelf up the glacier and into its tributaries. We will image the bed of the glacier using radar and seismic techniques, and use satellite remote sensing to measure the changing configuration of the glacier in areas that cannot be accessed on the ground. We will use the data we have collected to drive and verify a set of computer simulations of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier. Each of these will test a particular aspect of the glacier flow, and allow us to test our current knowledge and hypotheses against real data. The models that emerge from the exercise will be demonstrably more reliable in simulating past changes on the glacier, and thus have reduced uncertainty in predicting the future evolution of such changes, and the consequential contribution to sea-level rise.
Overall, this programme will deliver significant improvements in understanding of how glaciers in general interact with their beds, and very specific lessons about one of the most rapidly-changing and significant glaciers on the planet, Pine Island Glacier.
Planned Impact
The research undertaken in iSTAR-C will improve understanding of the causes of rapid change observed in parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) and how these may contribute to sea-level rise in future. While production of sea-level rise projections is not included within iSTAR-C, this programme will deliver understanding that underpins such projections, and will reduce uncertainty, and increase confidence, in those projections. Thus, the most significant economic and societal impacts of iSTAR-C will be realised as the science outcomes from iSTAR-C are taken up by beneficiaries beyond the immediate colleagues of the Co-Is; there are researchers and non-research scientists and engineers, who are directly undertaking sea-level rise projections.
Within this group we identify several key beneficiaries who will be users of iSTAR-C outcomes.
1. Academic researchers: (e.g. Proudman Oceanographic Institute, UK Climate Impacts Programme) who have a role in producing local, regional and global sea-level projections, and delivering to users.
2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC is by far the most influential group synthesising and delivering sea-level rise projections to policy-makers.
3. Governmental and non-governmental advisors. (E.g. Dept. of Energy and Climate Change, UK Environment Agency) closely monitor science regarding sea-level protection and are influential in bringing science in the agenda of policy-makers.
Engaging with these and similar groups will maximise the value of iSTAR-C.
In an even wider frame, iSTAR-C and projects like it, which seek to improve the underlying science on which we base our projections of future state of the planet, should play an important role in re-establishing public confidence in science. The nature of the iSTAR-C programme, which focuses on an exciting work in an inspiring area, and on current and unarguable changes in the Earth System, will draw the attention of many people not normally turned on by science. This will give iSTAR-C a great opportunity to engage with individuals and we will not squander this opportunity. We will seek to present and frame iSTAR-C outcomes without policy-prescriptive implications, but in a spirit of informing rational evidence-based debate. We will seek a dialogue with groups and individuals who share this goal.
Within this group we identify several key beneficiaries who will be users of iSTAR-C outcomes.
1. Academic researchers: (e.g. Proudman Oceanographic Institute, UK Climate Impacts Programme) who have a role in producing local, regional and global sea-level projections, and delivering to users.
2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC is by far the most influential group synthesising and delivering sea-level rise projections to policy-makers.
3. Governmental and non-governmental advisors. (E.g. Dept. of Energy and Climate Change, UK Environment Agency) closely monitor science regarding sea-level protection and are influential in bringing science in the agenda of policy-makers.
Engaging with these and similar groups will maximise the value of iSTAR-C.
In an even wider frame, iSTAR-C and projects like it, which seek to improve the underlying science on which we base our projections of future state of the planet, should play an important role in re-establishing public confidence in science. The nature of the iSTAR-C programme, which focuses on an exciting work in an inspiring area, and on current and unarguable changes in the Earth System, will draw the attention of many people not normally turned on by science. This will give iSTAR-C a great opportunity to engage with individuals and we will not squander this opportunity. We will seek to present and frame iSTAR-C outcomes without policy-prescriptive implications, but in a spirit of informing rational evidence-based debate. We will seek a dialogue with groups and individuals who share this goal.
Publications
Christoffersen P
(2014)
Significant groundwater contribution to Antarctic ice streams hydrologic budget CHRISTOFFERSEN ET. AL.; HYDROLOGIC BUDGETS FOR ICE STREAMS
in Geophysical Research Letters
Bougamont M
(2015)
Reactivation of Kamb Ice Stream tributaries triggers century-scale reorganization of Siple Coast ice flow in West Antarctica
in Geophysical Research Letters
Cornford S
(2015)
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate
in The Cryosphere
NIAS I
(2016)
Contrasting the modelled sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice streams
in Journal of Glaciology
Smith A
(2017)
Pine Island Glacier and Ice Sheet Stability in West Antarctica
in Eos
Scambos T
(2017)
How much, how fast?: A science review and outlook for research on the instability of Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier in the 21st century
in Global and Planetary Change
Kyrke-Smith T
(2017)
Can Seismic Observations of Bed Conditions on Ice Streams Help Constrain Parameters in Ice Flow Models?
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
Bingham RG
(2017)
Diverse landscapes beneath Pine Island Glacier influence ice flow.
in Nature communications
Title | Antarctic Painting |
Description | A acrylic painting of around 0.4 x 0.3 by Irene Wilkes, produced in support of a talk in the 'Pint of Science' series given by David Vaughan Tue 24/05/2016 |
Type Of Art | Artwork |
Year Produced | 2016 |
Impact | None |
URL | https://www.artfinder.com/artist/irene-wilkes/ |
Title | UK Stamps |
Description | The iSTAR programme, which is looking at the stability of Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica, is featured in a new set of British Antarctic Territory postage stamps. Four stamps have been printed showing different aspects of the programme's first science season. They will be on sale at British research stations in Antarctica and the Falkland Islands. One stamps features a photo taken by the PI. |
Type Of Art | Artefact (including digital) |
Year Produced | 2014 |
Impact | Its a stamp! |
URL | https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/stamp-of-approval-for-istar-2/ |
Description | Progress on understanding the recent changes on Pine Island Glacier has been made as part of the iSTAR programme. In particular, iSTAR-C has identified highly dissimilar bed conditions beneath the tributataries of Pine Island Glacier and these differences in large part explain the varied responses of the tributaries is to forcing on the floating ice. - Obtained the data to allow the first quantitative assessment of the description of the bed PIG which will assist modelling - It has produced the first images of the subglacial landscape beneath an Antarctic ice stream, and shown how the bed interacts with ice flow. - Hi-resolution ice-sheet modelling is currently underway to show the way that the short-scale features influence ice flow. - Modelling of the glacier is underway, to make projections of future ice dynamics and it's possible contribution to sea-level rise. |
Exploitation Route | The outcome of the fieldwork will feed several modelling activities that are currently underway by the partners. In time, the results will be of value to the wider ice-sheet modelling community, and provide crucial tests for models. It is intended that the results of this project feed into assessment of the magnitude and causes of change on Pine Island Glacier and through the West Antarctic ice sheet. That's informing projections of future global sea level rise. |
Sectors | Environment |
URL | http://www.istar.ac.uk |
Description | The project has generated considerable media and general interest within the iSTAR programme. - A briefing for parliamentarians has been arranged through the All-party Polar Group, for 2017. - The proposal by DG Vaughan to the NERC SPAG group, eventually morphed into the NSF/NERC Joint call for work on Thwaites Glacier is directly attributable to work done on this proposal |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | APPG presentation Tue 10/05/2016 15:30 (Houses of Parliament) |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
Description | Institute of Physics - co-sponsorship of meeting |
Amount | £1,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Institute of Physics (IOP) |
Sector | Learned Society |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2016 |
End | 03/2016 |
Description | Royal Society GERC - support for collaborative meeting |
Amount | £5,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | The Royal Society |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2016 |
End | 03/2016 |
Description | Royal Society GERC - support for collaborative meeting |
Amount | £5,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | The Royal Society |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2016 |
End | 03/2016 |
Title | Ice flow model output for Pine Island Glacier (West Antarctica), from numerical inversions of ice surface velocities observed in 1996 and 2014 |
Description | This data contains the model output of three numerical inversions of Pine Island Glacier ice surface velocities performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM2.0). The first and second simulations are inversions of the 1996 and 2014 velocity, respectively. The third simulation is a sensitivity experiment on the 2014 inversion. The gridded data consists of the ice surface velocity, basal velocity, basal stress, basal melt rates, and basal water fluxes, calculated for Pine Island Glacier catchment area. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://data.bas.ac.uk/full-record.php?id=GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/01094 |
Title | iSTAR-C field data |
Description | Various seismic, radar, GPS Data collected during the iStar traverses has been acquired installed on the iStar Data repository. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | These are unique data acquired from the key glacier in West Antarctica, they will be of lasting value to the glaciological community |
URL | http://www.istar.ac.uk |
Description | Manangement of NERC's iSTAR programme |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | An IceSheets programme member has managed the iSTAR programme for NERC and we derived considerable collaborative value from this |
Collaborator Contribution | Contractual relationship |
Impact | Reported elsewhere |
Start Year | 2010 |
Description | Thwaites Glacier Collaboration |
Organisation | National Science Foundation (NSF) |
Country | United States |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | As a result of iSTAR D Vaughan and others have had a key role in the proposal and development of the upcoming Thwaites Glacier collaboration between the UK NERC and US NSF. This is a major programme involving 24 institutions, and 9 significant research programmes |
Collaborator Contribution | Workshop led by iSTAR-C at the Royal Society in 2016, was significant in developing and demonstrating the partnership.NE/L013770 David Vaughan is now co-PI in an NSF award to provide Science Coordination to the Thwaites Programme now called, the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration |
Impact | The award of grants by NSF and NERC are the first steps towards impact |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Thwaites Glacier Collaboration |
Organisation | University of Colorado |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | As a result of iSTAR D Vaughan and others have had a key role in the proposal and development of the upcoming Thwaites Glacier collaboration between the UK NERC and US NSF. This is a major programme involving 24 institutions, and 9 significant research programmes |
Collaborator Contribution | Workshop led by iSTAR-C at the Royal Society in 2016, was significant in developing and demonstrating the partnership.NE/L013770 David Vaughan is now co-PI in an NSF award to provide Science Coordination to the Thwaites Programme now called, the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration |
Impact | The award of grants by NSF and NERC are the first steps towards impact |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | APPG |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | All-Party Parliamentary Group for Polar Regions Climate change in the polar regions - how bad is it? Committee Room 11, Palace of Westminster, 16:00-17:00, Tuesday, 10 May 2016 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Briefing for the President of Mauritius |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | DG Vaughan gave a lecture to the President of Mauritius' guests in the State House of Mauritius. The impact of sea-level rise was discussed and the role of iSTAR |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.govmu.org/English/News/Pages/Talk-on-Climate-Change-by-Professor-Vaughan.aspx |
Description | COP-22 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | DG Vaughan gave a presentation and chaired a debate in a side meeting at the COP Meeting in Bonn. The audience included former president of an island nation, and indigenous peoples representatives. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/bas-scientists-at-2017-cop23-climate-event-in-bonn/ |
Description | Gordon Conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited talk and debate to high-level Scientific audience |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Graphene summer school |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Study participants or study members |
Results and Impact | This keynote presentation by Prof David Vaughan was given to the graphene summer school. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | New Scientist Live |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Presentation by DG Vaughan at the New Scientist Live exhibition at 22-25 September, London Exel Centre on a main stage to an audience of around 200 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | https://live.newscientist.com/david-vaughan/ |
Description | Oates |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Talk by DG Vaughan to Gilbert White and Oates Museum, Thu 27/04/2017 20:30 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://www.gilbertwhiteshouse.org.uk/event/hidden-face-antarctica/ |
Description | Open talk at the Grantham Institute |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | This open talk was given at the Grantham Institute to a mixed audience of general public and scientists |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Parliamentary Briefing APPG |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Parliamentary briefing on sea level and its impact on UK coastlines, 'Can London Survive the melting ice sheets?' |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://twitter.com/APPGPolar |
Description | pint of sci |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Talk given to the Pint of Science (PoS) festival in Cambridge (23rd-25th May) by David VAughan |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |