Quantifying links between human influences on climate, shifting seasons and widespread ecosystem consequences
Lead Research Organisation:
Rothamsted Research
Department Name: Agro-Ecology
Abstract
It has been reported that the time-of-year of many typical indicators of spring, such as egg laying in birds and flowering in plants, has been changing in recent decades. Many of these recurring biological events now happen earlier in the year than they did just a few decades ago. This is believed to be one of the most conspicuous biological impacts of climate change. Far from trivial, these changes could disrupt seasonal relationships between species. This is because different species have changed their seasonal timing to different extents. For example, predators such as some woodland birds may now need to feed their chicks at a time of year at which peaks in their insect food no longer occur, whereas these events may once have coincided. Such changes in the seasonal synchronisation of different species have the potential affect numbers of offspring produced and the survival of populations. A few studies on a small number of species suggest that predators and prey may become de-synchronised because they have different responses to a warming climate but we do not currently know whether this is a general pattern that holds across a large number of species. We also do not currently know how much the observed changes in the timing of spring events has been affected by human-induced climate change, rather than climate change brought about by natural causes. The current project aims to address these gaps in our knowledge by analysing thousands of long-term studies on hundreds of UK plant and animal species and showing whether predatory species have, on average, different responses to climate change compared to their prey and whether these changes are likely to be effects of the human-induced component of climate change. We also aim to establish the regions of the UK, and habitats, in which possible de-synchronisation between predators and prey is most likely by focussing on birds and the insects on which they feed their chicks. This is the first time that so many species from marine, freshwater and dry-land environments have been analysed in a way that allows meaningful comparisons to be made between them, and that allows a statement to be made about the likely significance of human-induced warming for the functioning of a wide range of UK ecosystems.
Planned Impact
We will target the academic community via publishing results in peer-reviewed journals and presenting at scientific conferences, but we hope to reach many more potential stakeholders during the course of the project including key international researchers (Prof. Marcel Visser and Dr Toke Hoye). Our proposal will deliver priority science for a number of organisations, who have contributed to the proposal and will take ownership of key elements of the research agenda. The Met Office, Rothamsted Research and the British Trust for Ornithology are key beneficiaries in this respect. In order to maximise the potential impact of our project, we have contacted key UK statutory bodies: SNH (Ian Bainbridge), Natural England (Mike Morecroft) and CCW (Rhian Thomas). We have invited representatives of each of these bodies to our project start-up and closure meetings, so that they can be informed of the scientific rationale behind the project and results. This will allow them to advise us on how to report our science in a way that would best align with their organisational priorities. We will use a project Wiki page, hosted by CEH, to encourage day-to-day discussions between researchers and stakeholders. We have also contacted Peter Costigan in order to discuss the production of a non-technical synthesis of the project findings for Defra, at project closure.
As the current project makes extensive use of data collected by volunteers under schemes co-ordinated by a range of charitable research/conservation organisations, we can communicate the results of our work to the members and volunteer base via published reports or on organisational webpages. We feel that it is important that these volunteers see the scientific benefits of their continued efforts, and that a major societal impact will be that our work will reinforce the utility of "citizen science" for pressing environmental issues. The Woodland Trust have already agreed to such dissemination in principle. It is crucial to engage the general public since the issue of climatic change, particularly the anthropogenic component, as a driver of changes in the "signs of spring" is contentious. Our attribution work aims to address this issue and so our work would represent a valuable tool to engage with public opinion regarding the climate change debate. We propose to make full use of CEH press office contacts in order to communicate our findings to the wider public and encourage debate. We will also use CEH's Twitter page (CEH Science News, http://twitter.com/#!/cehsciencenews) as a mechanism for efficient communication of project results to the general public.
As the current project makes extensive use of data collected by volunteers under schemes co-ordinated by a range of charitable research/conservation organisations, we can communicate the results of our work to the members and volunteer base via published reports or on organisational webpages. We feel that it is important that these volunteers see the scientific benefits of their continued efforts, and that a major societal impact will be that our work will reinforce the utility of "citizen science" for pressing environmental issues. The Woodland Trust have already agreed to such dissemination in principle. It is crucial to engage the general public since the issue of climatic change, particularly the anthropogenic component, as a driver of changes in the "signs of spring" is contentious. Our attribution work aims to address this issue and so our work would represent a valuable tool to engage with public opinion regarding the climate change debate. We propose to make full use of CEH press office contacts in order to communicate our findings to the wider public and encourage debate. We will also use CEH's Twitter page (CEH Science News, http://twitter.com/#!/cehsciencenews) as a mechanism for efficient communication of project results to the general public.
Publications
Thackeray SJ
(2016)
Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels.
in Nature
O'Neill B
(2012)
Climatic change is advancing the phenology of moth species in Ireland
in Entomologia Experimentalis et Applicata
Elston D
(2017)
A New Approach to Modelling the Relationship Between Annual Population Abundance Indices and Weather Data
in Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics
Bell JR
(2019)
Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century.
in Global change biology
Bell JR
(2015)
Long-term phenological trends, species accumulation rates, aphid traits and climate: five decades of change in migrating aphids.
in The Journal of animal ecology
Arndt D. S.
(2018)
STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
in BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
Description | Four hypotheses being tested. All in progress. |
Exploitation Route | When complete the project will have assessed the risk of climate change desynchronising interactions between components of ecosystems, and will inform mitigation plans. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Environment |
URL | http://www.ceh.ac.uk/sci_programmes/shifting-seasons-uk.html |
Description | The results were quoted in the IPCC 5th Assessment. |
First Year Of Impact | 2013 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | 'Net Zero by 2050: An Ecological Policy Response' Bim Afolami MP: Climate Change Conference- Friday 20th September, Rothamsted. |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
URL | https://www.bimafolami.co.uk/net-zero-by-2050-a-policy-response/ |
Description | BTO swallow/swift phenology and RIS data |
Organisation | British Trust for Ornithology |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | BTO used the RIS data to examine the correlation between migrating insects and birds. Together, we examined changes in aphid phenology with aerial bird trends (swifts/swallows) as well as changes in winter occurring moths and passerine trends (blue tits etc). In both cases, the insects are strongly associated with these bird species because they are vital food sources. |
Collaborator Contribution | BTO analysed data |
Impact | Two meetings, provisional analysis complete. Paper draft expected. |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Climate and Nature |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | KT - Bell, J.R. Climate and Nature. Schools Day 18th July 2013, Rothamsted. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
Description | Climate change impacts pest and beneficial insects over the last half century: Insights from the UK. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | 25-30/9/2016 XXV International Congress of Entomology James Bell Climate change impacts pest and beneficial insects over the last half century: Insights from the UK. Symposium: Climate Change Impacts and Insect Population Dynamics. Orlando, Florida |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://ice2016orlando.org/ |
Description | Invited seminar at University of Helsinki |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | I was invited to deliver this seminar by staff at the University of Helsinki as part of their postgraduate training programme, though the event was attended by undergraduates and staff as well. It was attended by >50 people and stimulated questions and discussion. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Invited talk for the Scottish Freshwater Group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | I was invited to give the opening talk at the meeting, which was attended by approximately 80 people. The seminar was well received and stimulated questions and debate. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Quantifying links between human influences on climate, shifting seasons and widespread ecosystem consequences |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Bell, J.R. et al. SPACE II. Quantifying links between human influences on climate, shifting seasons and widespread ecosystem consequences Royal Entomological Society Climate Change Special Interest Group, 16th October, Rothamsted. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
URL | http://www.royensoc.co.uk/sites/default/files/CLIMATE_CHANGE_PROGRAMME_BOOKLET_2013.pdf |
Description | Regional differences in phenological responses of aphids, butterflies, moths and birds across the UK |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Bell et al. Regional differences in phenological responses of aphids, butterflies, moths and birds across the UK. Royal Entomological Society Annual National Science Meeting - Ento '16. Harper Adams University, Edgmond, Newport, Shropshire, TF10 8NB |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://www.royensoc.co.uk/sites/default/files/ento16ConfirmedProgramme_0.pdf |
Description | The effect of habitat on phenological responses: a meta analysis of aphids, butterflies, moths and birds |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Bell, J.R., Botham, M., Harrington, R. Henrys, P., Leech, D. & Thackeray, S.J. (2014) The effect of habitat on phenological responses: a meta analysis of aphids, butterflies, moths and birds. European Congress of Entomology Session 'Aphids and their natural enemies' 3rd - 8th August 2014, York |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://www.royensoc.co.uk/meetings/20140803_ece2014_author_and_programme_listing.htm |