Reducing the uncertainty in estimates of the sea level contribution from the westernmost part of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

Lead Research Organisation: British Antarctic Survey
Department Name: Science Programmes

Abstract

This proposal aims to improve estimates of Antarctica's contribution to sea level.

Sea level is currently rising at approximately 3mm/yr. If we are to understand why it is rising and how future sea-level rise will continue - perhaps accelerate - and lead to a wide range of societal impacts then we need to understand the different contributions to sea level. Some of the largest contributions come from the great ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland but the amount of ice being lost from Antarctica is particularly difficult to establish. There are three main ways to measure the amount of ice being lost or gained from Antarctica - its 'mass balance'. These are (i) satellite altimetery (measuring very precisely how the ice sheet surface is going up or down through time); (ii) the input-output method (calculating the difference between estimates of how much snow falls on Antarctica, and how much ice breaks off at the coast or is lost by melting); (iii) satellite gravimetry (measuring minute changes in Earth's gravitational field caused by loss or gain of ice in Antarctica through time).

Ideally, these three techniques would provide similar answers but they currently do not. All the techniques have problems or drawbacks and all are the subject of ongoing research. In this proposal we focus on the satellite gravimetry method. Mass balance from gravimetry is particularly tricky to calculate because the changes to the gravitational field are not only affected by ice loss/gain but also by mass moving around beneath the Earth's crust. At the end of the last ice age, a large thickness of ice in Antarctica melted and the rocks deep within the Earth are still responding to this change 1000s of years later. The consequence of this response - which scientists call glacial-isostatic adjustment or 'GIA' - is that the satellite measurements have to be corrected by a very large amount that accounts for movements of the rocky material and thus to provide the 'real' figure for ice mass loss/gain. It is getting this correction right that has been so problematic because it requires us to know the history of the ice sheet (including past snow accumulation) for over 10,000 years and also to know the structure of the Earth underneath Antarctica. Recent projects including a previous one by our group that was funded by NERC have made substantial improvements in determining this correction but our recently published work has shown very clearly that we still lack data to pin down the GIA correction tightly enough in parts of East Antarctica. In other words there is still an unacceptable level of uncertainty in East Antarctica, which leads directly to uncertainty in sea-level contribution.

In this proposal we have identified a region called Coats Land, in East Antarctica, which accounts for the greatest remaining uncertainty in the GIA correction but where we have managed to identify suitable sites where we can obtain the necessary ice history information, new seismic measurements of crustal structure, and GPS measurements of crustal uplift (a key part of testing GIA models). By visiting these sites and undertaking some world-leading modelling using our field data and a synthesis of existing snow accumulation data we will provide a new and much improved GIA correction for Antarctica. Whilst our data collection focus will be on Coats Land our subsequent modelling effort will encompass all of Antarctica. The data will be used to develop an improved model of GIA in Antarctica in order to correct the GRACE dataset. We conservatively estimate that with the measurements and modelling that we propose to carry out then we can at least halve the total uncertainty in satellite gravimetry measurements of Antarctic mass balance, and probably do substantially better than this. This proposal raises the prospect of getting an improved estimate of the Antarctic contribution to present-day global sea level rise.

Planned Impact

See Lead Proposal
 
Title Ice Floor by Wayne Binitie, Royal College of Arts. Art installation British Antarctic Survey and Arup Architects 
Description Arup presents Ice Floor, a new Phase 2 commission about climate change that has been developed by UK born artist Wayne Binitie in collaboration with the British Antarctic Survey, a world leading centre for polar science. Since 1979 summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic has reduced at 10% per decade. Some major glaciers that drain the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have accelerated by as much as 50%, adding to sea level rise. The installation explores the vulnerability of these regions to global warming and how they are subject to conditions like 'calving' (large chunks of ice breaking away at random moments). Deep ice cores from the polar regions have revealed more about the link between climate change and the atmosphere than any other scientific technique. In a cold room, specially created for the exhibition, slices taken from Antarctic ice cores appear to float on a solid ice floor. The exhibition has been made possible through collaboration with the British Antarctic Survey and the kind support of ISOVER. 
Type Of Art Artwork 
Year Produced 2019 
Impact The Ice Floor art installation comprised 360 discs, each 100 mm diameter and 20mm thick, of ancient Antarctic ice cores placed on a 2 meter diameter slab of frozen water in a dark and sound-proofed room, kept at -5 degrees Celsius, situated in the reception area of Arup Architects in London. The slab of ice was lit from below to cast an eerie light into the darkened room. Speakers set into the concrete floor projected the sounds of pre-industrial air being released from ice cores, which tell us the levels of greenhouse gases in the past. The exhibition was open to the public, with free access. Many thousands of visitors were entranced by the sight of the ice samples from Antarctica, slowly subliming away, evoking the fragility of the Antarctic ice landscape, yet providing mankind with the fundamental knowledge of the history of climate and the composition of the atmosphere. 
URL https://www.arup.com/news-and-events/ice-floor
 
Title Polar Zero 
Description Two artworks: one a continuously melting ice core to stimulate discussion of the fragility of the Antarctic ice sheet; a second glass work containing a capsule of air from 1768 (the 'start' of the Industrial Revolution) to represent the atmosphere prior to the anthropogenic increase in the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. 
Type Of Art Artwork 
Year Produced 2021 
Impact Artwork on show at COP26, Glasgow 
URL https://youtu.be/gAMkxue568g
 
Title Solid Liquid Gas 
Description Audio visual field recording of Antarctic ice core air bubbles. 1, 500 years old. Glass sculpture. V&A Museum 
Type Of Art Artwork 
Year Produced 2018 
Impact Exhibition of glass sculptures, set to the sound of air bubbles being released from deep ice cores. Set in the courtyard of the V&A museum, it was visited by many thousands of visitors. Sculptures evoked natural polar ice. Artist provided narrative linking sculptures and sound of ancient air to modern anthropogenic changes in the climate and atmosphere. 
URL https://vimeo.com/248285560
 
Description The project is still in the early field studies of the region. Other collaborators are responsible for field geomorphology, cosmogenic dating of deposits, and installation/uplift of GPS stations. At this stage, our contribution is limited to the field acquisition and subsequent analysis of 'mumiyo' deposits for radiocarbon dating to assess aspects such as first occupation of the nest sites which indicates an earliest age of deglaciation of the site (allowing access to the birds to nest).

Pro-ventricular stomach oil (sometimes referred to as 'mumiyo') deposits were first reported in the Heimefrontfjella by Lewis Jukes (BAS) during an over snow traverse from Halley Bay in the mid 1960's. The deposits result from the defensive ejection of stomach oils at nest sites. The oils preserve well in the cold polar environment and can form accumulations up to 20-30 cm thick together with internal layering.

As with other organic deposits in Antarctica the oils can be dated (by radiocarbon) and together with information about their position, altitude and geomorphological context, can provide valuable constraints on ice sheet history. For example, dating the onset of deposition provides minimum age for deglaciation and by studying samples along altitude transects can constrain the extent of ice thickening at different sites. An additional advantage is that the stratigraphy of individual deposits can be dated at different levels, providing an occupation history that can be used to infer whether glaciers re-advanced over the site (discontinuous deposition) or if the sites have been continuously ice free since the initial deglaciation (continuous deposition).
We found snow petrel nests at al elevations from immediately beside ice margins right up to ridge crests, and it was notable that in areas of suitable boulders we found that virtually all suitable crevices were occupied by active nests or had been occupied at some point (mumiyo deposits). This might suggest that suitable areas are rapidly and intensively colonised once they are available to the birds; moreover the majority of suitable crevices were actively occupied suggesting that there is a reasonable degree of continuity of occupation.
Exploitation Route Timing the deglaciation history of Coats Land is of value to ice sheet modellers for contraining their models.

Deglaciation adds to sea level rise - the results are valuable to those studying earlier changes in sea level, and ultimately to policy makers taking decisions about defences against future sea level rise.
Sectors Education

Environment

Government

Democracy and Justice
 
Description Interglacial Collapse of Ice Sheets revealed by Subglacial Drilling of Bedrock (INCISED)
Amount € 3,430,717 (EUR)
Funding ID 885205 
Organisation European Research Council (ERC) 
Sector Public
Country Belgium
Start  
 
Description Antarctic ice core display - Science Museum, London 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Display of an Antarctic ice core in the 'Atmospheres' gallery of the Science Museum in London, with a caption showing 800,000 years of climate change and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and explanation of the interaction between carbon dioxide and climate. Display has been in place for ten years, and has been renewed for another five years, and possibly longer.

https://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/see-and-do/atmosphere, accessed 10th March 2021, records the following:

Step into a virtual world, with its own oceans, land and atmosphere, and go back in time to discover key moments in the Earth's multibillion-year climate history.

The Atmosphere gallery is an exciting place to make sense of the climate-the science of how it works, what it's doing now and what it might do next. Uncover the secrets of ice cores and stalagmites, then head for the future to wonder at the latest ideas for a low-carbon life.

Fascinating objects include a real Antarctic ice core, tree rings and scientists' instruments. Come to this gallery to get to grips with the latest climate news and investigate the important issue of climate change.

The Science Museum developed the content for this gallery through extensive research and engagement with scientists and experts, including expertise from the Met Office as principal content contributor.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/see-and-do/atmosphere
 
Description Demonstration of climate research from ice cores to Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and Sir David Attenborough 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Demonstrated ice cores and discussed climate research with the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and Sir David Attenborough. Discussion was filmed and aired on national TV as a news item, and then later included as a segment in a BBC programme presented by Sir David Attenborough. Reach is thought to have been global.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Documentary interview for television: global climate effects of super-eruptions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Documentary interview for television programme on the climate effects of a volcano super eruption. Supplied both face to face interview, and high quality footage of drilling ice cores in Antarctica from personal video assets. UK programme maker commissioned by US channel. Likely to be sold on and screened globally.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Polar Zero - Science/Art installation COP26 Glasgow 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Polar Zero at the Glasgow Science Centre

Overview

While science drives our understanding of climate change, the enormity of the data it produces and the scale of the problem it has identified has been proven to lead to issues such as eco-anxiety and learned helplessness. As a result, new methods of public engagement must be explored that interpret climate science in a way that is easily graspable and inspires positive action. The Polar Zero exhibition which took place at the Glasgow Science Centre (GSC) in the run up to and throughout the COP26 UN Climate Conference is a prime example of this. Artist Wayne Binitie's installations drew on current research by British Antarctic Survey (BAS) scientists to provoke curiosity, action and hope for the future as evidenced by its significant media impact.

Objectives

• Promote science-arts collaborations as a method of provoking thought about climate change.
• Inspire climate action by driving the public to engage with the exhibition physically and virtually.
• Encourage collaboration between arts researchers and practitioners, scientists, and engineers.
• Showcase the contribution that UKRI-funded researchers are making to tackling climate change.
• Shine a light on an early career researcher, Wayne Binitie.

Strategy

Media engagement focussed on two milestones: the announcement and launch of the exhibition with AHRC leading on comms around the announcement and BAS on the launch.

The target sectors were high-impact national outlets, regional outlets in Scotland and Glasgow, science and research sector press and arts sector press. Press releases for each milestone were tailored to different sectors and included a range of carefully curated visual assets as well as messaging around the importance of the collaboration between art and science.

A press event was held at the exhibition space ahead of the opening of the exhibition to the public which resulted in a range of positive preview articles and reviews. A particular emphasis was put on securing the attendance of photojournalists for this due to the high potential for images to be picked up across the media.

Social media support on the channels of all partner organisations resulted in further interest and engagement.

Summary of outcomes:

Polar Zero was a significant presence at COP26 which showed a wide, global audience how research into our glacial past demonstrates both the beauty and fragility of the natural world and the urgent need to protect it.

Media coverage and attendee feedback was unanimously positive and proved that the exhibition caused people to think differently about climate change as well as underlying the importance of working to mitigate its effects. The Big Issue described Polar Zero as a "thought provoking" contribution to the COP26 Green Zone and The Guardian noted that the exhibition was a "multisensory experience at a time when it seems more urgent than ever before to ask what it means to touch and be in touch with the Earth".

The exhibition was profiled in multiple national and regional news outlets in the UK as well as internationally. All partner organisations were credited widely with BBC News noting that "the small but striking installation is an unusual artistic collaboration with the British Antarctic Survey" and The Daily Mail crediting AHRC's significant "£101,302 funding for the project which will bring climate science, art and engineering together".

A range of high-profile broadcast opportunities were also secured including features which ran multiple times on the BBC World Service and interviews with Wayne Binitie and BAS scientists on BBC Radio Scotland.


The diverse range of outlets who covered the exhibition brought the messages of Polar Zero to a range of niche audiences who are less commonly exposed to the kinds of climate science it drew from such as fashion interest readers of Vogue Brazil and contemporary art interest readers of OCULA. Coverage in outlets such as BBC Newsround brought the message of Polar Zero to young audiences at the heart of future climate action.

Polar Zero generated over one-thousand interactions on social media including support from key stakeholders in government and policy such as the official account of the Secretary of State for Scotland and influential social media personalities such as the hosts of the BBC's Good Morning Scotland.

Key statistics:

• Approximately 400 articles and reports in reputable news outlets
• Approximately 900M total potential news reach (sum of monthly unique visitors to these outlets)
• Coverage in high-impact outlets such as BBC News, ITV News and Yahoo News, The Daily Mail, The Guardian, and The Daily Telegraph
• Coverage in 10 major international outlets such as Artnet USA and MSN Australia
• Over 1000 social media posts and interactions (including likes and retweets)
• 34, 943 exhibition attendees
• Extensive media mentions of partner organisations including over 300 for BAS and over 200 for AHRC

Relation to objectives:

• Promote science-arts collaborations as a method of provoking thought about climate change.
The value of science and art collaboration was highlighted in all communications and was a consistent through line of all coverage. BBC News noted that by cooperating in an art project, BAS was helping people to understand their impact on the polar regions and Nature editor Flora Graham retweeted a BAS post to her 6040 followers describing the exhibition as a "fascinating arts-science collaboration".
• Inspire climate action by driving the public to engage with the exhibition physically and virtually.
Most coverage included a call to action as outlined in the press releases that explained how people could engage with the exhibition. Multiple pieces of coverage were secured in regional outlets targeted at audiences who were most likely to be able to attend the physical exhibition and the GSC reported that visitors a large number of visitors were heard talking about climate change such as a father who said to his five-year-old: "look, this is what is happening to our planet".
• Encourage collaboration between arts researchers and practitioners, scientists, and engineers.
Multiple pieces of coverage were secured in outlets aimed at each of the above audiences such as Arts Professional, Further Education News and Design News. These reached audiences who typically engage with news specifically about their field with the message that cross-disciplinary collaboration can yield interesting and impactful results.
• Showcase the contribution that UKRI-funded researchers are making to tackling climate change.
UKRI and AHRC were namechecked in various high-impact articles and broadcast in all target sectors. UKRI media analysis has shown that Polar Zero achieved a higher volume of coverage than any other UKRI-funded COP26 initiative.
• Shine a light on an early career researcher, Wayne Binitie.
A wide range of high-profile arts outlets covered the exhibition and profiled Wayne. This included The Art Newspaper, OCULA, Dezeen, Arts Professional and the US outlet Artnet. Various mainstream outlets such as BBC News and The Guardian quoted Wayne as part of their coverage and others including The Telegraph featured photos of Wayne and his work as part of their image sections.
Conclusion

Polar Zero achieved wide-reaching international media coverage which supported each of the objectives of the project and brought its innovative and powerful message about climate change to a potential audience of hundreds of millions. This included online, print, broadcast and social media targeted at a wide range of audiences and sectors, much of which explicitly credited UKRI and AHRC's essential contribution.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.bas.ac.uk/project/data-as-art/polar-aesthetics/polar-zero/polar-zero-ice-core/