Determining and understanding substorm energy loss and partitioning
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Mullard Space Science Laboratory
Abstract
The substorm is a repeatable earthquake-like disturbance to near-Earth Space, which, apparently unpredictably, recurs after anything from 2 hours to a day or more and dumps typically one thousand million million Joules of energy into the upper atmosphere equivalent to ten Oklahoma tornados or the largest nuclear weapon in the US arsenal. The substorm's intermittency and variable size makes it arguably the greatest source of uncertainty in predicting the state of the upper atmosphere. Its most obvious effect is the aurora, which would be nice to know when its happening so that we could plan our Arctic holidays, but substorm prediction is also important for mitigating the effects of natural changes in the upper atmosphere on geostationary satellite communications and navigation, low-altitude satellite orbits and remote sensing, electricity power grids, and oil and mineral prospecting. Prediction is also the ultimate test for our scientific understanding. Progress requires measuring and analysing substorm variability in order to test and develop models based on maths and physics. We already know the statistics of substorm timing and have explained this with a simple mathematical model (that has also been used for understanding neuron firing in the brain!). However, knowing and understanding the variability of substorm size is much harder because it requires to measure simultaneously over large regions of the polar upper atmosphere and out into Space.
In this project, we propose to attempt this by examining lots of substorms over more than a decade using spacecraft together with networks of magnetometers (sophisticated scientific compasses) and radars in both the Arctic and Antarctic. The resulting stats will be compared with what we already know from much more limited observations and with the predictions of new and existing substorm theories and models. The outcomes will be knowing things like how likely a really big substorm is that could mess things up, as well as models to explain why and hopefully when that might occur.
In this project, we propose to attempt this by examining lots of substorms over more than a decade using spacecraft together with networks of magnetometers (sophisticated scientific compasses) and radars in both the Arctic and Antarctic. The resulting stats will be compared with what we already know from much more limited observations and with the predictions of new and existing substorm theories and models. The outcomes will be knowing things like how likely a really big substorm is that could mess things up, as well as models to explain why and hopefully when that might occur.
Planned Impact
As discussed in the Academic Beneficiaries section, there are numerous institutions that will benefit from this research. The overarching objective, to determine the energy partitioning within the substorm, and thus what quantity of energy is deposited into the Earth's ionosphere in the form of particle precipitation and Joule heating, is of paramount importance to those interested in the effects of Space Weather on our everyday lives.
Modern society is increasingly reliant on space-based technologies for their everyday lives and substorms have consequences on modern technological infrastructure in the Space and Energy sectors. These include damage to satellites, especially from surface charging, and disruptions to satellite communications and navigation due to ionospheric absorption and scintillation, to electricity supply due to electrical currents induced in the ground from ionospheric currents, and to oil and mineral prospecting due to geomagnetic field fluctuations.
Such so-called 'space weather' hazards are now considered to be sufficiently important to have been included in the latest UK Government National Risk Register. Providing information directly relevant to predictive space weather modelling efforts is the first step towards providing advance warning for low-frequency, but high-consequence events such as those identified by the top UK and US Science Advisors Holdren and Beddington who warn "The potential total cost of an extreme Space Weather event is estimated as $2 Trillion in year 1 in the U.S. alone, with a 4-10 year recovery period".
The Meteorological Office is responsible for providing space weather predictive capability and will directly benefit from the improved knowledge of the radiation belts that this project will provide. The Global Positioning System (GPS), and their European counterparts in Galileo, may be a primary benefactor of our research. The loss of particles into the ionosphere leads to large and currently unpredictable changes in the density of the ionosphere. The accuracy of location information provided by GNSS is significantly degraded during periods of rapid ionospheric change that result from the direct action of substorm and radiation belt dynamics. Many industries rely upon GNSS/GPS for their remarkable precision timing to 100 billionths of a second, synchronizing networks, computers or instruments. GPS technology is also used heavily in precision farming, including spraying and harvest, for snow removal in the US, and for vessels to determine their location precisely at sea anywhere on the globe. More generally, the effects of space weather can be felt in all activities that use space-related assets. For example, during the October-November 2003 geomagnetic storms the effects of space weather were included in a US National Weather Service report for the first time.
The research and professional skills that the two PDRAs will develop during this project will be in computational programming, the processing large datasets and clear scientific reasoning, written skills in the form of reports and publications, which are all applicable to many employment sectors.
Modern society is increasingly reliant on space-based technologies for their everyday lives and substorms have consequences on modern technological infrastructure in the Space and Energy sectors. These include damage to satellites, especially from surface charging, and disruptions to satellite communications and navigation due to ionospheric absorption and scintillation, to electricity supply due to electrical currents induced in the ground from ionospheric currents, and to oil and mineral prospecting due to geomagnetic field fluctuations.
Such so-called 'space weather' hazards are now considered to be sufficiently important to have been included in the latest UK Government National Risk Register. Providing information directly relevant to predictive space weather modelling efforts is the first step towards providing advance warning for low-frequency, but high-consequence events such as those identified by the top UK and US Science Advisors Holdren and Beddington who warn "The potential total cost of an extreme Space Weather event is estimated as $2 Trillion in year 1 in the U.S. alone, with a 4-10 year recovery period".
The Meteorological Office is responsible for providing space weather predictive capability and will directly benefit from the improved knowledge of the radiation belts that this project will provide. The Global Positioning System (GPS), and their European counterparts in Galileo, may be a primary benefactor of our research. The loss of particles into the ionosphere leads to large and currently unpredictable changes in the density of the ionosphere. The accuracy of location information provided by GNSS is significantly degraded during periods of rapid ionospheric change that result from the direct action of substorm and radiation belt dynamics. Many industries rely upon GNSS/GPS for their remarkable precision timing to 100 billionths of a second, synchronizing networks, computers or instruments. GPS technology is also used heavily in precision farming, including spraying and harvest, for snow removal in the US, and for vessels to determine their location precisely at sea anywhere on the globe. More generally, the effects of space weather can be felt in all activities that use space-related assets. For example, during the October-November 2003 geomagnetic storms the effects of space weather were included in a US National Weather Service report for the first time.
The research and professional skills that the two PDRAs will develop during this project will be in computational programming, the processing large datasets and clear scientific reasoning, written skills in the form of reports and publications, which are all applicable to many employment sectors.
People |
ORCID iD |
Jonathan Rae (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Rae IJ
(2017)
Using ultra-low frequency waves and their characteristics to diagnose key physics of substorm onset.
in Geoscience letters
Rae I
(2018)
The Role of Localized Compressional Ultra-low Frequency Waves in Energetic Electron Precipitation
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Pokhotelov D
(2015)
The influence of solar wind variability on magnetospheric ULF wave power
in Annales Geophysicae
Pakhotin I
(2018)
Diagnosing the Role of Alfvén Waves in Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling: Swarm Observations of Large Amplitude Nonstationary Magnetic Perturbations During an Interval of Northward IMF
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Murphy KR
(2018)
Determining the Mode, Frequency, and Azimuthal Wave Number of ULF Waves During a HSS and Moderate Geomagnetic Storm.
in Journal of geophysical research. Space physics
Murphy K
(2020)
Inner Magnetospheric ULF Waves: The Occurrence and Distribution of Broadband and Discrete Wave Activity
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Murphy K
(2018)
The Global Statistical Response of the Outer Radiation Belt During Geomagnetic Storms
in Geophysical Research Letters
Ling Y
(2018)
Observations of Kelvin-Helmholtz Waves in the Earth's Magnetotail Near the Lunar Orbit
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Kalmoni NM
(2015)
Statistical characterization of the growth and spatial scales of the substorm onset arc.
in Journal of geophysical research. Space physics
Description | The substorm is arguably the greatest source of uncertainty in predicting the state of the upper atmosphere due to its intermittency and varying magnitude. Prediction is important for mitigating the effects of the upper atmosphere on geostationary satellite communications and navigation, low-altitude satellite orbits and remote sensing, electricity power grids, and oil and mineral prospecting. It is also the ultimate test for our scientific understanding. Progress requires quantitative analysis of substorm variability in order to motivate and test predictive physical models and is the subject of at least one, if not two successful NERC Highlight Topics that have recently been awarded. We have |
Exploitation Route | Quantitative substorm onset databases are the single biggest problem facing our field. We are typically not able to do this, which means deternining key physical processes relative to this unknown time is impossible. As we have determined a fully quantitative and statistically robust estimate of substorm onset time, and made this available to the community without reservation, we believe that this will be a huge community resource for many years to come. In terms of energy budget for the inner magnetosphere, those that require knowledge of substorm onset will use this technique and database to quantify the resultant energisation and loss of relativistic electrons. Space weather is an increasingly important national requirement to understand, as shown by the Government's National Risk Register priority list. |
Sectors | Aerospace Defence and Marine Energy Environment Government Democracy and Justice |
Description | AGU |
Amount | $1,000 (USD) |
Organisation | American Geophysical Union |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United States |
Start | 08/2014 |
End | 09/2014 |
Description | NERC Highlight Topic |
Amount | £3,000,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/P017150/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2017 |
End | 05/2021 |
Description | ics |
Amount | $1,000 (USD) |
Organisation | International Conference on Substorms |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | Japan |
Start | 11/2014 |
End | 11/2014 |
Title | New database on substorm onset, duration |
Description | A new technique to define the three phases of a substorm |
Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
Year Produced | 2016 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | many other papers resulted |
URL | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JA021343 |
Title | New model for calculating pedersen conductance |
Description | New model for calculating pedersen conductance from all-sky imager data |
Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | too early to tell |
Title | Output of 3D model simulating externally driven ULF waves in Earth's magnetosphere, including the effect of convection on plasmaspheric density |
Description | This data set contains the ULF wave model output data required to produce the figures in the article: A. W. Degeling, I. J. Rae, C. E. J. Watt, Q. Q. Shi, R. Rankin and Q. G. Zong, "Control of ULF Wave Accessibility to the Inner Magnetosphere by the Convection of Plasma Density", J. Geophys. Res. (accepted Dec. 2017) doi:10.1002/2017JA024874 The dataset has a Matlab binary file format. It consists of a structure array "d" (with 325 elements). These elements correspond to the 2D parameter scan in driver frequency and elapsed time during plume development performed for this study. The elapsed time parameter has 25 elements, ranging 0 to 24 hours (i.e. 1 hour spacing), and the driver frequency parameter has 13 elements ranging from 1 to 7 mHz (with 0.5 mHz spacing). e.g. use "d = reshape(d,25,13);" to reshape the structure array into 2D with columns for the frequency scan and rows for the elapsed time scan. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Description | Collaboration with Atkins |
Organisation | Severn Trent Water |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Working with Atkins and partners, engaged with water sector to understand their level of preparedness for space weather |
Collaborator Contribution | Briefings and discussion with water and power companies |
Impact | No substantive outcomes were generated from this 6 month project |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | Collaboration with Atkins |
Organisation | Thames Water Utilities Limited |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Working with Atkins and partners, engaged with water sector to understand their level of preparedness for space weather |
Collaborator Contribution | Briefings and discussion with water and power companies |
Impact | No substantive outcomes were generated from this 6 month project |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | Collaboration with Atkins |
Organisation | WS Atkins |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Working with Atkins and partners, engaged with water sector to understand their level of preparedness for space weather |
Collaborator Contribution | Briefings and discussion with water and power companies |
Impact | No substantive outcomes were generated from this 6 month project |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview - Interview on Independent online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Interview on space weather in Independent |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Space Weather Public Dialogue Stakeholder Summit |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The purpose of the public dialogue is to inform the policy of both governments and companies in respect of space weather and the potential consequences on people and infrastructure. This has been done through a series of workshops over the summer with members of the public in urban and rural locations. The aim has been to develop and gauge public understanding of space weather and its impacts and scenarios for resilience (both civil society and individuals), and consider the roles and responsibilities of the Government, companies, communities and individuals to mitigate against and/or respond to space weather impacts The purpose of the Stakeholder Summit is to bring together representatives from Government, local authorities, academic institutions and corporations who all have an interest in space weather and its potential impacts. The morning will be spent discussing the outputs of the public dialogue and the afternoon will be used to explore actions and recommendations for the future. Develop a final report that will be circulated to all those who have been involved in the dialogue project and posted on the website. The project team and STFC will discuss how to keep members of public involved in the longer term. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |