Advanced computing architecture to support the estimation and reporting of UK GHG emissions
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Bristol
Department Name: Chemistry
Abstract
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be inferred from measurements of their atmospheric concentration using computationally demanding Bayesian "inverse" methods. This information is being used by research groups at the University of Bristol (UoB) and the University of Edinburgh (UoE) to a) quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of emissions from the UK and other countries, and b) determine the drivers of natural atmospheric GHG variability. This work is underpins several major projects including: a) the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) monitoring network, responsible for reporting UK GHG emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, b) the £3m NERC-funded Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) consortium (Palmer is PI, Rigby is co-I), c) the NASA and DECC-funded Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (Rigby is member), and d) the National Centre for Earth Observation.
This work involves two stages. Firstly, chemical transport models (CTMs; e.g. the UK Met Office NAME model) are run on multi-node clusters, before their output is compared to observations for emissions verification using (usually) single-node data analysis systems. The statistical techniques for the latter involve the use of CPU- and memory-intensive linear algebra algorithms on extremely large arrays, which are already pushing the limits of our existing infrastructure. Activities within the DECC network and GAUGE now pose further challenges: 1) to fully exploit a rapidly growing quantity of heterogeneous measurement data (many millions of data points); 2) to use these data to infer emissions at higher resolution than ever before (e.g. making use of NAME model output at a horizontal resolution of 1.5 km over the UK). The proposed assets will help to strengthen our ability to carry out this second stage of this work.
This work involves two stages. Firstly, chemical transport models (CTMs; e.g. the UK Met Office NAME model) are run on multi-node clusters, before their output is compared to observations for emissions verification using (usually) single-node data analysis systems. The statistical techniques for the latter involve the use of CPU- and memory-intensive linear algebra algorithms on extremely large arrays, which are already pushing the limits of our existing infrastructure. Activities within the DECC network and GAUGE now pose further challenges: 1) to fully exploit a rapidly growing quantity of heterogeneous measurement data (many millions of data points); 2) to use these data to infer emissions at higher resolution than ever before (e.g. making use of NAME model output at a horizontal resolution of 1.5 km over the UK). The proposed assets will help to strengthen our ability to carry out this second stage of this work.
Planned Impact
The proposed assets will be used to estimate GHG emissions for national reporting commitments to the UNFCCC. The improvement in spatial resolution afforded by this new system will ultimately provide more accurate emissions reporting to inform global climate policy-making. By making full use of DECC network and GAUGE observations, this work will serve as a road map for future emissions verification efforts by the research community and the private sector (e.g. Earth Networks Ltd.).
The use of GPU processing is new in our field, and we will work with the Tech-X corporation (Boulder, CO) to optimise existing IDL code for use with GPU units (http://www.txcorp.com/home/gpulib).
The use of GPU processing is new in our field, and we will work with the Tech-X corporation (Boulder, CO) to optimise existing IDL code for use with GPU units (http://www.txcorp.com/home/gpulib).
People |
ORCID iD |
Matthew Rigby (Principal Investigator) | |
Paul Palmer (Co-Investigator) |
Publications
An M
(2021)
Rapid increase in dichloromethane emissions from China inferred through atmospheric observations.
in Nature communications
Brophy K
(2019)
Characterizing uncertainties in atmospheric inversions of fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in California
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Fang X
(2018)
Rapid increase in ozone-depleting chloroform emissions from China
in Nature Geoscience
Fraser P
(2020)
Australian chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions: 1960-2017
in Environmental Chemistry
Ganesan A
(2020)
Marine Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Three Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems Inferred From Atmospheric Observations
in Geophysical Research Letters
Ganesan A
(2014)
Characterization of uncertainties in atmospheric trace gas inversions using hierarchical Bayesian methods
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Hoare T
(2020)
Development of an urban greenhouse gas modelling system to support a London monitoring network
in Weather
Lunt M
(2016)
Estimation of trace gas fluxes with objectively determined basis functions using reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo
in Geoscientific Model Development
Lunt M
(2021)
Atmospheric observations consistent with reported decline in the UK's methane emissions (2013-2020)
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Lunt MF
(2018)
Continued Emissions of the Ozone-Depleting Substance Carbon Tetrachloride From Eastern Asia.
in Geophysical research letters
Lunt MF
(2015)
Reconciling reported and unreported HFC emissions with atmospheric observations.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Monteil G
(2020)
The regional European atmospheric transport inversion comparison, EUROCOM: first results on European-wide terrestrial carbon fluxes for the period 2006-2015
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Montzka S
(2021)
A decline in global CFC-11 emissions during 2018-2019
in Nature
Montzka SA
(2018)
An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11.
in Nature
Nickless A
(2020)
Greenhouse gas observation network design for Africa
in Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology
O'Doherty S
(2014)
Global emissions of HFC-143a (CH<sub>3</sub>CF<sub>3</sub>) and HFC-32 (CH<sub>2</sub>F<sub>2</sub>) from in situ and air archive atmospheric observations
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Park S
(2021)
A decline in emissions of CFC-11 and related chemicals from eastern China
in Nature
Rigby M
(2017)
Role of atmospheric oxidation in recent methane growth.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Rigby M
(2014)
Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing RIGBY ET. AL.; SYNTHETIC GREENHOUSE GAS TRENDS
in Geophysical Research Letters
Rigby M
(2019)
Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations.
in Nature
Say D
(2016)
Re-Evaluation of the UK's HFC-134a Emissions Inventory Based on Atmospheric Observations.
in Environmental science & technology
Say D
(2020)
Emissions and Marine Boundary Layer Concentrations of Unregulated Chlorocarbons Measured at Cape Point, South Africa.
in Environmental science & technology
Schoenenberger F
(2015)
First observations, trends, and emissions of HCFC-31 (CH 2 ClF) in the global atmosphere
in Geophysical Research Letters
Sheng J
(2021)
Sustained methane emissions from China after 2012 despite declining coal production and rice-cultivated area
in Environmental Research Letters
Simmonds P
(2020)
The increasing atmospheric burden of the greenhouse gas sulfur hexafluoride (SF<sub>6</sub>)
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Simmonds P
(2016)
Global and regional emissions estimates of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a, CH<sub>3</sub>CHF<sub>2</sub>) from in situ and air archive observations
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Simmonds P
(2017)
Changing trends and emissions of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and their hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs) replacements
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Stanley KM
(2020)
Increase in global emissions of HFC-23 despite near-total expected reductions.
in Nature communications
Stell A
(2021)
Atmospheric-methane source and sink sensitivity analysis using Gaussian process emulation
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Trudinger C
(2016)
Atmospheric abundance and global emissions of perfluorocarbons CF<sub>4</sub>, C<sub>2</sub>F<sub>6</sub> and C<sub>3</sub>F<sub>8</sub> since 1800 inferred from ice core, firn, air archive and in situ measurements
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Velders G
(2022)
Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Vollmer M
(2015)
Modern inhalation anesthetics: Potent greenhouse gases in the global atmosphere
in Geophysical Research Letters
Vollmer M
(2015)
Abrupt reversal in emissions and atmospheric abundance of HCFC-133a (CF 3 CH 2 Cl) HCFC-133A REVERSAL
in Geophysical Research Letters
Vollmer MK
(2021)
Unexpected nascent atmospheric emissions of three ozone-depleting hydrochlorofluorocarbons.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Western L
(2021)
Estimates of North African Methane Emissions from 2010 to 2017 Using GOSAT Observations
in Environmental Science & Technology Letters
Western L
(2020)
Bayesian spatio-temporal inference of trace gas emissions using an integrated nested Laplacian approximation and Gaussian Markov random fields
in Geoscientific Model Development
Description | We have developed a method for estimating greenhouse gas emissions using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, using the new graphical processing units that have been installed on this machine. |
Exploitation Route | The software libraries that we are currently developing on these machines will be published online. We will continue development of this software jointly with researchers around the world. |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | This capital award was used to purchase two powerful computers, one at the University of Bristol and another at the University of Edinburgh. These machines have been operating for almost 12 months and have allowed us to simulate the atmospheric chemistry and transport of several important greenhouse gases. Several publications that have used model simulations carried out on these machines are in preparation. |
First Year Of Impact | 2014 |
Sector | Environment |
Description | Edwards Ltd. semiconductor manufacture PFC emissions |
Organisation | Edwards |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Model simulations of perfluorocarbons (PFCs) in the atmosphere. |
Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data and expertise. |
Impact | No outcomes yet. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Global Carbon Project-methane |
Organisation | Laboratory of Climate Sciences and the Environment (LSCE) |
Country | France |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Model simulations of global atmospheric methane |
Collaborator Contribution | Publications, data provision |
Impact | Kirschke et al (2013), Nature Geoscience. |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | NASA JPL |
Organisation | National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) |
Department | Jet Propulsion Laboratory |
Country | United States |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Statistical investigation of model parameterisations in OCO-2 retrieval code. |
Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data and model output. |
Impact | No outcomes yet |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | University of Wollongong |
Organisation | University of Wollongong |
Country | Australia |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Model runs, data provision and processing, expertise in atmospheric modelling and statistics. |
Collaborator Contribution | Expertise in statistics |
Impact | Several publications, with further work in the pipeline. |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | Carbon tetrachloride workshop: Solving the carbon tetrachloride mystery |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | A workshop to determine the global budget of carbon tetrachloride, a potent ozone depleting substance. A report of the workshop is in progress and will be disseminated to policy makers involved in the Montreal Protocol. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015,2016 |
URL | http://www.sparc-climate.org/news/news/news/2015/02/19/workshop-on-solving-the-mystery-of-carbon-tet... |