Summer: Testing Influences and Mechanisms for Europe (SummerTIME)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology
Abstract
The recent string of wet UK summers had considerable impact on society via effects such as flooding. The summer of 2013 then bucked the trend, with unusually warm and dry conditions prevailing. The proximate causes of these unusual seasons were shifts of the Atlantic jet and storm track, which steers the path of individual storms. But are there deeper underlying causes: remote or 'external' drivers that can have an influence on the jet stream? If so, can we use these drivers to improve our forecasts of these high-impact events from months to years ahead? These are the questions that will be addressed by the SummerTIME proposal.
Summertime shifts of the jet stream appear to be related to Atlantic Ocean temperatures, both on seasonal and decadal timescales. Other potential drivers include sea ice variations, anthropogenic aerosol emissions and tropical circulation patterns. However, climate models in general have difficulty in reproducing these observed relationships, and operational seasonal forecast systems have little skill in predicting jet shifts. The primary aim of SummerTIME is to advance the science of seasonal to decadal prediction of summertime atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic-European region.
The meteorology of summertime circulation has historically been much less studied than its wintertime counterpart, and much remains to be understood of its fundamental nature. A secondary aim of SummerTIME is to improve our understanding of the fundamentals of summer circulation, for example why the storm track splits into two distinct paths just west of the British Isles. This will be investigated using the latest observational datasets and a hierarchy of numerical models of different complexities.
A series of sensitivity experiments will be performed centred around a new version of the Met Office climate model coupled to a very detailed model of the ocean surface layer. These experiments will be designed to test the roles of possible drivers such as ocean currents, sea ice and aerosol forcing.
Finally, the project will analyse a wide range of state of the art forecast systems, particularly from the Met Office but also from other forecasting centres around the world. The aim is to identify missing or poorly represented processes in the forecast systems and investigate how these may be improved. The SummerTIME team will work closely with scientists from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting, to ensure that the results are successfully pulled through to aid the development of operational forecast systems.
Summertime shifts of the jet stream appear to be related to Atlantic Ocean temperatures, both on seasonal and decadal timescales. Other potential drivers include sea ice variations, anthropogenic aerosol emissions and tropical circulation patterns. However, climate models in general have difficulty in reproducing these observed relationships, and operational seasonal forecast systems have little skill in predicting jet shifts. The primary aim of SummerTIME is to advance the science of seasonal to decadal prediction of summertime atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic-European region.
The meteorology of summertime circulation has historically been much less studied than its wintertime counterpart, and much remains to be understood of its fundamental nature. A secondary aim of SummerTIME is to improve our understanding of the fundamentals of summer circulation, for example why the storm track splits into two distinct paths just west of the British Isles. This will be investigated using the latest observational datasets and a hierarchy of numerical models of different complexities.
A series of sensitivity experiments will be performed centred around a new version of the Met Office climate model coupled to a very detailed model of the ocean surface layer. These experiments will be designed to test the roles of possible drivers such as ocean currents, sea ice and aerosol forcing.
Finally, the project will analyse a wide range of state of the art forecast systems, particularly from the Met Office but also from other forecasting centres around the world. The aim is to identify missing or poorly represented processes in the forecast systems and investigate how these may be improved. The SummerTIME team will work closely with scientists from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting, to ensure that the results are successfully pulled through to aid the development of operational forecast systems.
Planned Impact
The key beneficiaries of SummerTIME are the UK Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). They will benefit directly from recommendations given by SummerTIME on how to improve their seasonal prediction systems for European summer. By working with both of their operational and development systems we will be able to provide tailored advice for each system.
Direct interaction with, and pull-through by, these key end-users is guaranteed through the depth of collaboration including: 1) project input from jointly-employed staff; 2) the letters of support from parallel projects funded, inter alia, under the EC's 7th framework programme; 3) sub-contracting components of the proposed programme directly from end-users; 4) regularly scheduled collaborative meetings and 5) support from the Met Office Academic Partnership. All these strands will ensure direct operational impact of results by permitting end users to shape the research during the lifetime of the project.
Improved predictive skill for summer climate will have subsequent economic impacts for both government and businesses, who will be better able to prepare for extreme weather and climate conditions. The project team have particularly strong links with the insurance industry, through the Willis and Lighthill networks, which will be invaluable in engaging end-users. In addition, our involvement in the NERC Probability, Uncertainty and Risk in the Environment (PURE) knowledge exchange network will aid in the communication of the important uncertainties surrounding seasonal prediction.
Finally we are keen to expand our existing engagement with wider interest groups such as policy makers, environmental charities, pressure groups, NGOs, student-bodies, and the wider public. This will be achieved through a variety of mechanisms including popular science articles, web content and schools outreach, orchestrated through the Oxford Climate Research Network and the Walker Institute at Reading.
Direct interaction with, and pull-through by, these key end-users is guaranteed through the depth of collaboration including: 1) project input from jointly-employed staff; 2) the letters of support from parallel projects funded, inter alia, under the EC's 7th framework programme; 3) sub-contracting components of the proposed programme directly from end-users; 4) regularly scheduled collaborative meetings and 5) support from the Met Office Academic Partnership. All these strands will ensure direct operational impact of results by permitting end users to shape the research during the lifetime of the project.
Improved predictive skill for summer climate will have subsequent economic impacts for both government and businesses, who will be better able to prepare for extreme weather and climate conditions. The project team have particularly strong links with the insurance industry, through the Willis and Lighthill networks, which will be invaluable in engaging end-users. In addition, our involvement in the NERC Probability, Uncertainty and Risk in the Environment (PURE) knowledge exchange network will aid in the communication of the important uncertainties surrounding seasonal prediction.
Finally we are keen to expand our existing engagement with wider interest groups such as policy makers, environmental charities, pressure groups, NGOs, student-bodies, and the wider public. This will be achieved through a variety of mechanisms including popular science articles, web content and schools outreach, orchestrated through the Oxford Climate Research Network and the Walker Institute at Reading.
Publications
Baker L
(2018)
An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts
in Geophysical Research Letters
Baker L
(2017)
Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation
in International Journal of Climatology
Beverley J
(2018)
The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill
in Climate Dynamics
Beverley J
(2021)
Dynamical mechanisms linking Indian monsoon precipitation and the circumglobal teleconnection
in Climate Dynamics
Collins M
(2018)
Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics
in Nature Climate Change
Dacre H
(2019)
Linking Atmospheric Rivers and Warm Conveyor Belt Airflows
in Journal of Hydrometeorology
Dong B
(2017)
Erratum to: Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe
in Climate Dynamics
Dong B
(2017)
Attribution of Forced Decadal Climate Change in Coupled and Uncoupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Experiments
in Journal of Climate
Dong B
(2022)
Recent decadal weakening of the summer Eurasian westerly jet attributable to anthropogenic aerosol emissions.
in Nature communications
Dong B
(2021)
Recent trends in summer atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic/European region: is there a role for anthropogenic aerosols?
in Journal of Climate
Dong B
(2016)
Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe
in Climate Dynamics
Dong B
(2020)
Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter?
in Climate Dynamics
Drouard M
(2019)
Disentangling Dynamic Contributions to Summer 2018 Anomalous Weather Over Europe
in Geophysical Research Letters
Hawkins E
(2020)
Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown
in Geophysical Research Letters
Huntingford C
(2019)
Assessing changes in risk of amplified planetary waves in a warming world
in Atmospheric Science Letters
Monerie P
(2018)
Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system
in Climate Dynamics
Monerie P
(2017)
A role of the Atlantic Ocean in predicting summer surface air temperature over North East Asia?
in Climate Dynamics
Monerie P
(2017)
Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change
in Environmental Research Letters
Monerie P
(2019)
Effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on the Global Monsoon
in Geophysical Research Letters
Ossó A
(2018)
Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Ossó A
(2020)
Development, Amplification, and Decay of Atlantic/European Summer Weather Patterns Linked to Spring North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
in Journal of Climate
Ossó A
(2019)
Impact of air-sea coupling on Northern Hemisphere summer climate and the monsoon-desert teleconnection
in Climate Dynamics
Pfleiderer P
(2019)
Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 °C world
in Nature Climate Change
Sutton R
(2019)
Climate Science Needs to Take Risk Assessment Much More Seriously
in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Description | This research has discovered new ways in which the North Atlantic Ocean interacts with the atmosphere above it and thereby affects summer weather in the UK and Europe. Two-way interactions between surface winds and sea surface temperatures lead to an amplification of specific weather patterns associated with wet or dry summers in northern Europe. This is exicting because it suggests it may be possible to predict aspects of our summer weather months ahead. Skillful long-range forecasts would be of great value to many people and sectors (e.g. tourism, retail, agriculture, energy). |
Exploitation Route | The Met Office and other operational forecasting centres can use the results to inform improvements to their seasonal forecasting system. Many sectors would find skillful long-range forecasts of high value. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Energy Environment Financial Services and Management Consultancy Healthcare Leisure Activities including Sports Recreation and Tourism Government Democracy and Justice Retail Transport |
URL | http://www.pnas.org/content/115/1/59 |
Description | The Met Office are seeking to make improvements to their seasonal forecast system informed by the results from this research. There is ongoing collaboration through the ACSIS (North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study) programme to explore the potential. Recent developments include plans to greatly enhance the ensemble size of Met Office seasonal forecasts in order to better capture weak predictable signals such as those identified in SummerTIME. There is ongoing collaboration to understand the sources of predictability in European summer climate and to improve predictions. |
First Year Of Impact | 2017 |
Sector | Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice,Transport |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | Invited participant in the scoping meeting to plan the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (May 2017, Addis Ababa) |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
Impact | The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has played a critical role in advising the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the most recent outcome of which was the Paris Agreement which is the most serious attempt yet achieved to tackle climate change. |
URL | http://www.ipcc.ch |
Description | (DivPredSkill) - Climate model diversity in the North Atlantic and its impact on prediction skill on interannual-to-decadal timescales |
Amount | € 212,934 (EUR) |
Funding ID | 101026271 |
Organisation | European Commission |
Sector | Public |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Start | 06/2021 |
End | 06/2023 |
Description | CERAF |
Amount | £5,212,426 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/V017756/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2021 |
End | 03/2025 |
Description | Explaining and Predicting the Ocean Conveyor (EPOC) |
Amount | € 9,549,760 (EUR) |
Organisation | European Commission |
Sector | Public |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Start | 08/2022 |
End | 10/2027 |
Description | NERC National Capability Long Term Science - MultiCentre Programme: North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) |
Amount | £9,000,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/N018001/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2016 |
End | 03/2021 |
Description | NERC National Capability Science Multi-Centre 1-year extension (FY 21/22): The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) |
Amount | £1,961,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2021 |
End | 03/2022 |
Description | Wider impacts of Subpolar North Atlantic decadal variability on the ocean and atmosphere (WISHBONE) |
Amount | £800,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/T013516/1 |
Organisation | United Kingdom Research and Innovation |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2020 |
End | 08/2023 |
Description | North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) |
Organisation | British Antarctic Survey |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office. |
Collaborator Contribution | Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Impact | https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office. |
Collaborator Contribution | Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Impact | https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) |
Organisation | National Centre for Earth Observation |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office. |
Collaborator Contribution | Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Impact | https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) |
Organisation | National Oceanography Centre |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office. |
Collaborator Contribution | Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Impact | https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) |
Organisation | Plymouth Marine Laboratory |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office. |
Collaborator Contribution | Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Impact | https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Appointed to Transdisciplinary Advisory Board for European Joint Programming Initiative "Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe" (JPI Climate) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The Transdisciplinary Advisory Board (TAB) consists of national and international members from academia and from relevant stakeholder groups. It advises the Governing Board on specific issues upon request. This overall Advisory Board is an important instrument to involve relevant stakeholder groups. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
URL | https://jpi-climate.eu/governance/#transdisciplinary-advisory-board |
Description | Chair, Met Office Hadley Centre Science Review Group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) Science Review Group (SRG) brings together leading scientists from UK and international academia to carry out an independent review of the climate research carried out by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (MOHCCP) to advise its government customers on the quality, robustness and relevance of our science outputs. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022,2023 |
URL | https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/how-met-office-science-is-reviewed |
Description | • Co-organizer (with UK Climate Change Committee and UK Climate Resilience Programme champions) of the major multi-disciplinary conference "Is the UK on track to adapt to climate change?", October 2020 (see https://www.ukclimaterisk.org/learn-more/conference-is-the-uk-on-track-to-adapt-to-climate-change/) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | This was a major online conference with excellent participation (approx 500 registered) from science and policy communities interested in adaptation and resilience. See https://www.ukclimaterisk.org/learn-more/conference-is-the-uk-on-track-to-adapt-to-climate-change/ |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.ukclimaterisk.org/learn-more/conference-is-the-uk-on-track-to-adapt-to-climate-change/ |