IMPALA: Improving Model Processes for African cLimAte
Lead Research Organisation:
NERC CEH (Up to 30.11.2019)
Department Name: Hydro-climate Risks
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Planned Impact
IMPALA research will have significant impact locally, nationally and regionally in Africa as well as globally via the following beneficiaries and pathways.
FCFA Regional Consortia adaptation and impacts researchers and regional climate information providers will have direct access to new scientific understanding on, and improved simulations of, African climate variability and change via inclusion in the established Africa-focused process evaluation group (PEG). CP4-Africa climate change simulations will be disseminated through the NERC JASMIN data cluster for regional consortia to test multi-model projection robustness in key stakeholder-relevant local processes and extremes often poorly represented in coarser resolution models.
Model development Scientists in Africa: The 5 African model evaluation and development scientists in IMPALA will make extended visits to the Met Office focused on MetUM evaluation, development and training. They and their institutes will be offered the opportunity to install MetUM technical infrastructure and support for its configuration and application, developing local and regional expertise which is currently in very limited supply.
Policymakers: Policy briefings on improved reliability of model predictions relevant to climate resilience and adaptation planning across Africa will be delivered to UK Government through DFID and, via the Met Office Hadley Centre Knowledge Integration team, DECC. Internationally they will be communicated to the Conferences of the Parties and the Nairobi Work Programme of the UNFCCC and IPCC through active engagement in its scientific assessments and special reports. Close contact will be maintained with the African Climate Policy Centre and the African Development Bank.
People and communities in Africa and beyond: The ultimate beneficiaries of the research will be people of sub-Saharan Africa and IMPALA scientists will work with the CCKE Unit to assist in generating cross-programme outputs, e.g. material demonstrating improved capability to assess risks of key agriculture-relevant rainfall events, for their user training workshops and interactions with other DFID programmes and broader capacity development and adaptation activities.
Operational weather, seasonal forecasting and climate service capability in Africa: IMPALA model developments will imply improved representation of processes important for short-range to seasonal forecasting. With the MetUM being used across all timescales these developments will rapidly deliver improved weather and seasonal forecasts relevant to existing severe weather to seasonal forecasting activities the Met Office is already feeding directly into as well as to future programmes such as SHEAR funded by DFID.
Scientific community, CMIP6 and other modelling centres: To broaden the Africa-lens approach to the international stage IMPALA's methodology for model diagnosis, understanding and improvement will be disseminated through papers, at international science meetings and included in the planned CMIP6 benchmarking and evaluation software tools (overseen by the WCRP Working Group for Coupled Models co-chaired by the PI).
Cross programme Activities: IMPALA scientists will work with the CCKE Unit to ensure full engagement in cross-programme activities and knowledge transfer through relevant networks. Scientists from regional consortia will be included in the Africa PEG to enable a rapid exchange of model developments, datasets and understanding and ideas on relevant metrics of model performance.
Wider FCFA programme activities through the Programme Executive Committee (PEC): The PI will work with the Programme Management Unit and PEC to increase IMPALA impact and reach beyond FCFA. The PI and CO-Is have broad experience in communicating work on African science to inter-disciplinary scientists and policy makers through their engagement in previous DFID or NERC projects and are already active in many outreach events in Africa.
FCFA Regional Consortia adaptation and impacts researchers and regional climate information providers will have direct access to new scientific understanding on, and improved simulations of, African climate variability and change via inclusion in the established Africa-focused process evaluation group (PEG). CP4-Africa climate change simulations will be disseminated through the NERC JASMIN data cluster for regional consortia to test multi-model projection robustness in key stakeholder-relevant local processes and extremes often poorly represented in coarser resolution models.
Model development Scientists in Africa: The 5 African model evaluation and development scientists in IMPALA will make extended visits to the Met Office focused on MetUM evaluation, development and training. They and their institutes will be offered the opportunity to install MetUM technical infrastructure and support for its configuration and application, developing local and regional expertise which is currently in very limited supply.
Policymakers: Policy briefings on improved reliability of model predictions relevant to climate resilience and adaptation planning across Africa will be delivered to UK Government through DFID and, via the Met Office Hadley Centre Knowledge Integration team, DECC. Internationally they will be communicated to the Conferences of the Parties and the Nairobi Work Programme of the UNFCCC and IPCC through active engagement in its scientific assessments and special reports. Close contact will be maintained with the African Climate Policy Centre and the African Development Bank.
People and communities in Africa and beyond: The ultimate beneficiaries of the research will be people of sub-Saharan Africa and IMPALA scientists will work with the CCKE Unit to assist in generating cross-programme outputs, e.g. material demonstrating improved capability to assess risks of key agriculture-relevant rainfall events, for their user training workshops and interactions with other DFID programmes and broader capacity development and adaptation activities.
Operational weather, seasonal forecasting and climate service capability in Africa: IMPALA model developments will imply improved representation of processes important for short-range to seasonal forecasting. With the MetUM being used across all timescales these developments will rapidly deliver improved weather and seasonal forecasts relevant to existing severe weather to seasonal forecasting activities the Met Office is already feeding directly into as well as to future programmes such as SHEAR funded by DFID.
Scientific community, CMIP6 and other modelling centres: To broaden the Africa-lens approach to the international stage IMPALA's methodology for model diagnosis, understanding and improvement will be disseminated through papers, at international science meetings and included in the planned CMIP6 benchmarking and evaluation software tools (overseen by the WCRP Working Group for Coupled Models co-chaired by the PI).
Cross programme Activities: IMPALA scientists will work with the CCKE Unit to ensure full engagement in cross-programme activities and knowledge transfer through relevant networks. Scientists from regional consortia will be included in the Africa PEG to enable a rapid exchange of model developments, datasets and understanding and ideas on relevant metrics of model performance.
Wider FCFA programme activities through the Programme Executive Committee (PEC): The PI will work with the Programme Management Unit and PEC to increase IMPALA impact and reach beyond FCFA. The PI and CO-Is have broad experience in communicating work on African science to inter-disciplinary scientists and policy makers through their engagement in previous DFID or NERC projects and are already active in many outreach events in Africa.
Organisations
Publications
Senior C
(2021)
Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Change Simulations for Understanding Future Climate and Informing Decision-Making in Africa
in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Crook J
(2019)
Assessment of the Representation of West African Storm Lifecycles in Convection-Permitting Simulations
in Earth and Space Science
Klein C
(2021)
Combining CMIP data with a regional convection-permitting model and observations to project extreme rainfall under climate change
in Environmental Research Letters
Gallego-Elvira B
(2019)
Evaluation of Regional-Scale Soil Moisture-Surface Flux Dynamics in Earth System Models Based on Satellite Observations of Land Surface Temperature
in Geophysical Research Letters
Vosper S
(2018)
A Pan-African Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa
in Journal of Climate
Bickle M
(2021)
Understanding mechanisms for trends in Sahelian squall lines: Roles of thermodynamics and shear
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Description | We have shown how the land surface can influence the atmosphere in quite different ways depending on how rainfall is represented in a climate model. |
Exploitation Route | The findings will help to improve the representation of the land surface within computer models for prediction of weather and climate |
Sectors | Environment |