Uncertainty reduction in Models For Understanding deveLopment Applications (UMFULA)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: School of Earth and Environment
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Planned Impact
Who might benefit from our research? Case study participants: Rufiji river basin: the government River Basin Water Office and the public-private partnership Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania; southern Malawi: Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation and Water Resources, Chikwawa, Nsanje and Thoyolo District Assemblies. Case study outputs will benefit multilateral development banks and the southern African Climate Resilient Infrastructure Facility-CRIDF, who advise on infrastructural development. National and regional decision-makers in C&SA and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) including Southern African Development Community, WATERNET, CRIDF. Programmes concerned with climate services, e.g. Global Framework for Climate Services, CCAFS, IRI, CLIVAR, ESPA, CARIAA ASSAR. Met Services in Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Tanzania. Universities of Zambia and Yaounde. African citizens vulnerable to climate related risks, or reliant on infrastructure/resources that may be affected by climate change (now-40 years on).
How might they benefit from our research? Through deep engagement, national and local government and private sector stakeholders in both Malawi and Tanzania will be enabled to drive a process of improved use of climate services in decision-making processes. This is critical in both case study contexts which have been selected based on the climate risk to water and agriculture infrastructure and the implications it has for economic development. The process will be supported by the Met Services whose capacity will be built to produce country-specific contextualized projections based on the outputs of climate models given their responsibility in country to do so. Active engagement of Met Services within the case study co-production will also build partnerships that extend beyond the project lifetime and can inform on-going country policy processes: for example the development of the National Adaptation Plans. The ultimate aim is that improved use of climate services in decision-making benefits African citizens, not only in Malawi and Tanzania but also further afield, through the proactive communication of robust theoretical and applied findings to decision-makers across C&SA and further disseminated for use throughout SSA. By engaging with major initiatives such as GFCS (which is piloting programmes in both case study countries) we will have outreach and potential impact well beyond the two case studies. Univ Zambia & Yaounde and African Met Services will participate in a 'big science' project involving state-of-the-art high resolution models.
As a team we have a strong track record of applied research and proven impact in climate science and adaptation across Africa. Our approach includes
Co-production of knowledge and stakeholder-driven deliberative processes as the key methodology in the case studies; in which case study participants are engaged throughout the process and have co-ownership of the process and, by definition, the findings will be targeted to be of direct applicability and achieve maximum development impact.
Embedding impact in our management structures to maximize impact over the lifetime of the project and ensure post-project sustainability
1) Impact sub-group led by KULIMA
2) Advisory Panel, high level strategic guidance, through bi-annual TCs with representation from key regional organisations, public and private sector, donors and multi-laterals (eg agreed participation of World Bank staff)
A proactive approach to collaboration with other RPCs and the CCKE, eg invitation to sit on panels to maximise synergistic findings and outreach opportunities
Seizing opportunities for development of African capacity through providing bursaries to students in C&SA countries, making it a policy for senior team members and PDRAs to give guest lectures/research training sessions during C&SA visits (at university and other organisations eg Government) and offer some remote research co-supervision.
How might they benefit from our research? Through deep engagement, national and local government and private sector stakeholders in both Malawi and Tanzania will be enabled to drive a process of improved use of climate services in decision-making processes. This is critical in both case study contexts which have been selected based on the climate risk to water and agriculture infrastructure and the implications it has for economic development. The process will be supported by the Met Services whose capacity will be built to produce country-specific contextualized projections based on the outputs of climate models given their responsibility in country to do so. Active engagement of Met Services within the case study co-production will also build partnerships that extend beyond the project lifetime and can inform on-going country policy processes: for example the development of the National Adaptation Plans. The ultimate aim is that improved use of climate services in decision-making benefits African citizens, not only in Malawi and Tanzania but also further afield, through the proactive communication of robust theoretical and applied findings to decision-makers across C&SA and further disseminated for use throughout SSA. By engaging with major initiatives such as GFCS (which is piloting programmes in both case study countries) we will have outreach and potential impact well beyond the two case studies. Univ Zambia & Yaounde and African Met Services will participate in a 'big science' project involving state-of-the-art high resolution models.
As a team we have a strong track record of applied research and proven impact in climate science and adaptation across Africa. Our approach includes
Co-production of knowledge and stakeholder-driven deliberative processes as the key methodology in the case studies; in which case study participants are engaged throughout the process and have co-ownership of the process and, by definition, the findings will be targeted to be of direct applicability and achieve maximum development impact.
Embedding impact in our management structures to maximize impact over the lifetime of the project and ensure post-project sustainability
1) Impact sub-group led by KULIMA
2) Advisory Panel, high level strategic guidance, through bi-annual TCs with representation from key regional organisations, public and private sector, donors and multi-laterals (eg agreed participation of World Bank staff)
A proactive approach to collaboration with other RPCs and the CCKE, eg invitation to sit on panels to maximise synergistic findings and outreach opportunities
Seizing opportunities for development of African capacity through providing bursaries to students in C&SA countries, making it a policy for senior team members and PDRAs to give guest lectures/research training sessions during C&SA visits (at university and other organisations eg Government) and offer some remote research co-supervision.
Organisations
Publications
England M
(2018)
Climate change adaptation and cross-sector policy coherence in southern Africa
in Regional Environmental Change
Vincent K
(2022)
Editorial: Extreme Events in the Developing World
in Frontiers in Climate
Pardoe J
(2020)
Evolution of national climate adaptation agendas in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia: the role of national leadership and international donors
in Regional Environmental Change
Mataya D
(2019)
How can we effectively build capacity to adapt to climate change? Insights from Malawi
in Climate and Development
England M
(2018)
How do sectoral policies support climate compatible development? An empirical analysis focusing on southern Africa
in Environmental Science & Policy
Bhave A
(2020)
Lake Malawi's threshold behaviour: A stakeholder-informed model to simulate sensitivity to climate change
in Journal of Hydrology
Vincent K
(2020)
Re-balancing climate services to inform climate-resilient planning - A conceptual framework and illustrations from sub-Saharan Africa
in Climate Risk Management
Vincent K
(2020)
Reflections on a key component of co-producing climate services: Defining climate metrics from user needs
in Climate Services
Bhave AG
(2022)
Stress-testing development pathways under a changing climate: water-energy-food security in the lake Malawi-Shire river system.
in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
Description | Key finding relates to policy coherence needs and new opportunities across southern African states and the new opportunities provided through Climate Change strategies & Nationally Determined Contribution statements (to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). The need for cross-sectoral planning bodies is stressed and the opportunities across the energy and agriculture sectors in particular from analyses across 10 southern African states. We have also identified the range of possible water resource future scenarios for the Lake Malawi - Shire River Basin and displayed how Decision-Making Under Uncertainty approaches can help guide water resource management decisions across the country. Key national findings for Malawi have been disseminated to key organisations, including the National Planning Commission who are using insights in developing 5 & 10 year Strategic Action Plans in support of their Vision 2063 long-term National Development Plan. Findings highlight that the potential irrigation expansion across the Lake Malawi catchment will enhance the risk of very low lake levels threatening Shire River hydropower production and infrastructure performance. |
Exploitation Route | Regional policy briefs will be provided in coming months to help inform all sub-Saharan African governments in addressing climate change policy challenges and development plans dependent on irrigation expansion. National hydrological narratives briefing notes to be produced in 2022. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Environment Government Democracy and Justice |
URL | https://kulima.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/3209-UMFULA-Malawi-report-web.pdf |
Description | Key findings have guided Malawi's National Planning Commission in their development of Vision 2063 - National Development Plan. Ongoing engagement via a National Integrated Assessment Modelling Task Force has ensured direct links into national policies and investment plans across the water sector and to the National Resilience Policy. Findings were also fed directly into the Malawi Government Report for the UN Food Systems Summit via the 2021 Outcomes Synthesis Report: National and District Level Food Systems Dialogue. |
First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Energy,Environment |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | National Resilience Strategy (Government of Malawi) |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
Impact | Greater emphasis of climate change issues in long-term national resilience planning. |
Description | Future Climate for Africa Innovation Fund |
Amount | £98,833 (GBP) |
Organisation | Price Waterhouse Cooper |
Sector | Private |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 05/2017 |
End | 05/2018 |
Description | NERC/DFID El Nino Programme 2016 |
Amount | £303,120 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/P004091/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2016 |
End | 09/2021 |
Description | Coverage of 'Policy coherence for sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa' poliby brief on Sci-Dev |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Our policy brief 'Policy coherence for sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa' was featured on Sci-Dev |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://www.scidev.net/sub-saharan-africa/policy/multimedia/conflicting-policies-impeding-climate-ch... |
Description | Coverage of Tanzania and Malawi Climate Briefs and GCM Guide on CDKN website |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Our Country Climate Briefs for Tanzania and Malawi as well as our guide on global climate models were featured on the CDKN website. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://cdkn.org/2017/12/feature-hotter-future-tanzania-and-malawi/?loclang=en_gb |
Description | Expert Workshop on Climate Processes & Narratives |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | We are developing climate narratives for the Lake Malawi Shire River Basin. This approach is based on expert elicitation with climatological and meteorological experts to identify climate processes that influence precipitation in the region. We held one workshop in Blantyre, Malawi with experts from the national meteorological agency, the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS). This one-day workshop complements the one-one expert elicitations being carried out with other climate experts located globally and led to improved understanding of the drivers of climate change affecting the country and how these are projected to change across the full suite of IPCC Climate Models. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | National Panel Discussion |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | 120 people attended national workshop on the use of climate information held in Lilongwe, Malawi. This has guided input to the Government of Malawi National Resilience Strategy and also to World Bank Strategic Programme on Climate Resilience for Malawi. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.futureclimateafrica.org/news/umfula-meets-with-malawian-government-to-discuss-climate-inf... |
Description | Policy Briefing (Malawi National Planning Commission) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | National Briefing on Climate Scenarios and Risks over the next 40 years with specific reference to water-energy-food nexus trade-offs and climate sensitivity of hydrological infrastructure investments and cropping plans. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Webinar on policy coherence for sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Joanna Pardoe, Patrick Curran, Andy Dougill and Katharine Vincent organised a webinar in October 2018 to disseminate the work published in a policy brief on 'Policy coherence for sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa'. The webinar was well attended, with over 60 people, half of which from the African continent, and with a mix of practitioners, policy-makers, NGOs, businesses and researchers. The webinar got a high score for its usefulness by its participants, in a poll at the end. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |