Climate of the LAst Millennium (CLAM): An Integrated Data-Model Approach to Reconstruct and Interpret Annual Variability in North Atlantic Circulation
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
Department Name: Geography
Abstract
The ocean circulation of the North Atlantic is variable and pivotal in controlling regional and global climate. This variability occurs both naturally, and it is anticipated, in response to anthropogenic activity. Internal and forced natural variability in this system has so far largely been characterised in terrestrial archives and models rather than in the real ocean. It is critical that we understand the magnitude, timescale, drivers and impacts of this variability if we are to correctly attribute observed trends in the North Atlantic circulation, and develop robust early warning systems of, and plan adaptation to, future change. In CLAM we aim to utilise a network of robustly calibrated and verified absolutely dated sclerochronological proxy archives from NW Scotland, N. Iceland and the Gulf of Maine, together with high-resolution climate models, to investigate the mechanisms and forcings driving variability in the circulation patterns of the North Atlantic over the last millennium. This proposal is a resubmission (NE/M002160/1, Jan 2014, graded 8) in which we address minor concerns highlighted by the reviewers, notably we: (i) eliminate fieldwork risks - having completed all necessary sample collection using independent funding; (ii) further-demonstrate the powerful nature of the methodologies and potential findings though additional preliminary model-proxy analyses; (iii) greater societal impact via the development of a deeper collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre, and (iv) deliver improved value for money, through associated cost savings.
Planned Impact
Who will benefit, and how, from this research?
i) A major beneficiary of knowledge arising from this research is anticipated to be the climate modelling community who will be able to use our proxy-observations and model investigation to assess and improve the performance of models used for future climate prediction. Engaging effectively with this group is the main route for the proposed project to achieve societal impact.
ii) A review of the case for continuation of the RAPID 26.5N time series will take place in 2018. The proposed work will feed into this review by providing the first robust reconstruction of variability into which the recently observed change can be placed. Using this information it will be possible to begin asking over what timescale 26.5N observations may need to be made before robust trends can be identified.
iii) Other potential beneficiaries include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and policy makers who rely on climate model predictions to determine policy; our study provides constraints with which to test the ability of climate models, ultimately helping policy makers assess the reliability and performance of climate models. Our proposal has direct policy relevance for national and international climate change programmes, and will help provide society with the information it requires for managing the future global environment. Better understanding natural climate variability will be of use to other stakeholders (such as environmental organisations and private corporations) that make use of future predictions of climate change derived from global climate models for forward planning and strategy decisions over a range of timescales.
iv) The general public and student communities (at both secondary School and University levels) will benefit from this work by the provision of an increased understanding of the Earth's climate system.
To ensure that the outputs of CLAM both maintain a stakeholder focus, and are ultimately utilised to improve Met Office modelling capacity (and more widely), a series of workshops will be held by the Met Office to discuss techniques and findings.
Arguably, the main function of universities is to create new knowledge and to transmit this to the students and also to the general public. CLAM will take advantage of the existing exhibition infrastructure that was established by the Bangor group in 2010 for the Royal Societies 350th year Summer Science Exhibition at the South Bank Centre London. The exhibit was designed to facilitate the communication of biological aging and palaeoclimate research to audiences ranging from very young children through to Fellows of the Royal Society. CLAM seeks to utilise and enhance the existing infrastructure of the exhibit by updating the general content. We seek to modify the exhibit enabling it to eventually become a permanent feature at the National Museum of Wales (Cardiff). This entails the replacement of the microscope and digital imaging system with a touch screen interactive "virtual microscope" system that facilitates the user to visualise the growth lines present in a number of shells under various magnifications easily without the need of supervision. Additionally this resource would be made available through the CLAM website to supplement the already available interactive educational games.
CLAM will interact with the local schools and colleges through open days, Science Festivals and by conducting presentations and interactive learning sessions directly in the schools and colleges. These interactive learning sessions will take advantage of the online virtual microscope and interactive games allowing the students to examine the shell and proxy archives, construct their own sclerochronologies and investigate past climate change.
i) A major beneficiary of knowledge arising from this research is anticipated to be the climate modelling community who will be able to use our proxy-observations and model investigation to assess and improve the performance of models used for future climate prediction. Engaging effectively with this group is the main route for the proposed project to achieve societal impact.
ii) A review of the case for continuation of the RAPID 26.5N time series will take place in 2018. The proposed work will feed into this review by providing the first robust reconstruction of variability into which the recently observed change can be placed. Using this information it will be possible to begin asking over what timescale 26.5N observations may need to be made before robust trends can be identified.
iii) Other potential beneficiaries include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and policy makers who rely on climate model predictions to determine policy; our study provides constraints with which to test the ability of climate models, ultimately helping policy makers assess the reliability and performance of climate models. Our proposal has direct policy relevance for national and international climate change programmes, and will help provide society with the information it requires for managing the future global environment. Better understanding natural climate variability will be of use to other stakeholders (such as environmental organisations and private corporations) that make use of future predictions of climate change derived from global climate models for forward planning and strategy decisions over a range of timescales.
iv) The general public and student communities (at both secondary School and University levels) will benefit from this work by the provision of an increased understanding of the Earth's climate system.
To ensure that the outputs of CLAM both maintain a stakeholder focus, and are ultimately utilised to improve Met Office modelling capacity (and more widely), a series of workshops will be held by the Met Office to discuss techniques and findings.
Arguably, the main function of universities is to create new knowledge and to transmit this to the students and also to the general public. CLAM will take advantage of the existing exhibition infrastructure that was established by the Bangor group in 2010 for the Royal Societies 350th year Summer Science Exhibition at the South Bank Centre London. The exhibit was designed to facilitate the communication of biological aging and palaeoclimate research to audiences ranging from very young children through to Fellows of the Royal Society. CLAM seeks to utilise and enhance the existing infrastructure of the exhibit by updating the general content. We seek to modify the exhibit enabling it to eventually become a permanent feature at the National Museum of Wales (Cardiff). This entails the replacement of the microscope and digital imaging system with a touch screen interactive "virtual microscope" system that facilitates the user to visualise the growth lines present in a number of shells under various magnifications easily without the need of supervision. Additionally this resource would be made available through the CLAM website to supplement the already available interactive educational games.
CLAM will interact with the local schools and colleges through open days, Science Festivals and by conducting presentations and interactive learning sessions directly in the schools and colleges. These interactive learning sessions will take advantage of the online virtual microscope and interactive games allowing the students to examine the shell and proxy archives, construct their own sclerochronologies and investigate past climate change.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
James Scourse (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Román-González A
(2016)
A sclerochronological archive for Antarctic coastal waters based on the marine bivalve Yoldia eightsi (Jay, 1839) from the South Orkney Islands
in The Holocene
Der Sarkissian C
(2017)
Ancient DNA analysis identifies marine mollusc shells as new metagenomic archives of the past.
in Molecular ecology resources
Kilbourne K
(2022)
Atlantic circulation change still uncertain
in Nature Geoscience
Reynolds D
(2017)
Biological and Climate Controls on North Atlantic Marine Carbon Dynamics Over the Last Millennium: Insights From an Absolutely Dated Shell-Based Record From the North Icelandic Shelf
in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Arellano-Nava B
(2022)
Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age.
in Nature communications
Trofimova T
(2020)
Fundamental questions and applications of sclerochronology: Community-defined research priorities
in Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science
Butler P
(2020)
Is there a reliable taphonomic clock in the temperate North Atlantic? An example from a North Sea population of the mollusc Arctica islandica
in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
Reynolds D
(2018)
Isolating and Reconstructing Key Components of North Atlantic Ocean Variability From a Sclerochronological Spatial Network
in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Eiriksson J
(2017)
Langlífar kúskeljar, skeljatímatal og ástand sjávar við Norðurland í þúsund ár.
in Náttúrufræðingurinn
Alexandroff S
(2021)
Late Holocene seasonal temperature variability of the western Scottish shelf (St Kilda) recorded in fossil shells of the bivalve Glycymeris glycymeris
in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
Title | See Shells and Climate Change |
Description | A creative collaboration with Jake Boex, ceramicist, funded by the Creative Exchange Programme, University of Exeter, exhibited in the Environment and Sustainability Institute, February-March 2019: |
Type Of Art | Artistic/Creative Exhibition |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Impact | Invitation to relocate the exhibition to The National Trust. |
URL | http://www.exeter.ac.uk/esi/community/creativeexchange/boex/ |
Description | Chinese University of Hong Kong networking grant |
Amount | £14,235 (GBP) |
Organisation | Chinese University of Hong Kong |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | Hong Kong |
Start | 01/2022 |
End | 12/2024 |
Description | May 2022: £484,220 from Convex Blue Marine Foundation for Convex Blue Seascape Survey (total grant £8,036,016 with £5,832,645 to University of Exeter) (with C. Roberts, University of Exeter). |
Amount | £8,035,016 (GBP) |
Organisation | Blue Marine Foundation |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2022 |
End | 04/2027 |
Description | SEACHANGE Quantifying the impact of major cultural transitions on marine ecosystem functioning and biodiversity |
Amount | € 11,750,827 (EUR) |
Funding ID | SYNERGY grant 856488 |
Organisation | European Research Council (ERC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | Belgium |
Start | 09/2020 |
End | 09/2026 |
Description | C-author on four oral presentations given at EGU 2016 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | EGFU Conference |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Co-author of an oral and a poster presentation at the European Geophysical Union Conference Vienna 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Conference |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Co-author of five presentations at the International Conference on Paleoceanography |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presentations at ICP 2016 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Co-author of presentation at Challenger Conference 2016 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presentation at Conference by research student |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Co-author on conference oral presentations |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Co-author on five papers given at the Fifth International Sclerochronology Conference, Split, Croatia |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Co-author on poster presentations |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Co-author on two posters presented at the Fifth International Sclerochronology Conference, Split, Croatia |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Co-author on six posters at international conference (EGU, Vienna) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Co-author on posters at international conference leading to discussions on a number of current research projects and potential collaborations. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Evening talk to local community |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Presentation to St Clements Village Hall community, Truro, Cornwall entitled 'Clams, climate and controversy: unlocking the secrets of shells'. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Evening talk to local community |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Evening talk in village on the past and future impacts of climate change |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Invited external seminar speaker, Plymouth University |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited external seminar speaker sparking much interest amongst professional academics and members of the general public. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Invited seminar at University of St Andrews |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presented invited seminar entitled 'Annually-resolved records of marine climate change from the longest-lived animals on Earth' at the University of St Andrews Environmental Change Research Group (virtual). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Invited seminar, University College London |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited seminar |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Invited seminar, University of Queensland, Australia |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited seminar |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Keynote talk at the University of Helsinki |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Keynote talk at Biogeochemistry Conference, University of Helsinki |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Outreach talk |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Lunchtime talk for non-academic staff at the University of Exeter (Penryn Campus) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Presentation at International Conference on Sclerochronology |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Research talk at ICS 2016 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Presentation at national research organisation (QRA) annual conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Research presentation at national conference |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Presentation at the International Sclerochronology Conference, Tokyo, Japan |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Co-author of presentation entitled 'Advances in amino acid geochronology of bivalve shells' (Conti, M., Butler, P.G., Reynolds, D.J., Robson, H.K., Milner, N., Scourse, J.D. & Penkman, K.) at the 6th International Sclerochronology Conference, Tokyo, Japan. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Presentation at the QRA Annual Discussion Meeting, Manchester |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presented lecture entitled 'Molluscan bivalve sclerochronology: unlocking the history of the oceans' (Scourse, J.D., Reynolds, D., Butler, P.G., Schöne, B, Huang, Q., Halloran, P., Arellano-Nava, B., Penkman, K., Conti, M., Bohmann, K. & Roberts, C.) at the Quaternary Research Association 60th Anniversary Annual Discussion Meeting at the University of Manchester. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
Description | Presentation at the Virtual International Sclerochronology Conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presentation at a virtual meeting on sclerochronology on tipping points in the North Atlantic |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation at the XXI INQUA Congress, Rome, Italy |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Co-author of lectures entitled 'Clam shells reveal the subpolar North Atlantic tipped into the Little Ice Age' (Arellano-Nava, B., Halloran, P., Boulton, C.A., Scourse, J.D., Butler, P.G., Reynolds, D.R., & Lenton, T.M.) and 'Amino acid geochronology: advances and limitations in bivalve shells' (Conti, M., Butler, P.G., Reynolds, D.R., Robson, H.K., Milner, N., Scourse, J.D. & Penkman, K.) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Presentation to the XXI INQUA Congress, Rome, Italy |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presented lecture entitled 'Quaternary marine palaeoecology, molecular biology and geochemistry; challenging the shifting baseline syndrome' (Scourse, J.D., Bohmann, K., Butler, P.G., Craig, O., Roberts, C. & Schöne, B.) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Seminar at University of Exeter |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presented seminar entitled 'William Borlase, Uniformitarianism and the Ice Age in Cornwall' to the PalaeoX Discussion Group, University of Exeter (Penryn). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Seminar, University of Exeter |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Cross-department research seminar. Findings of relevance for PhD students working at Exeter. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Talk at conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Talk at the Marine Ecology and Conservation Network Meeting, University of Exeter |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |