Space weather impacts on ground systems

Lead Research Organisation: Science and Technology Facilities Council
Department Name: RAL Space

Abstract

Space weather describes the changing properties of near-Earth space, which influences the flow of electrical currents in this region, particularly within the ionosphere and magnetosphere. Space weather results from solar magnetic activity, which waxes and wanes over the Sunspot cycle of 11 years, due to eruptions of electrically charged material from the Sun's outer atmosphere. Particularly severe space weather can affect ground-based, electrically conducting infrastructures such as power transmission systems (National Grid), pipelines and railways. Ground based networks are at risk because rapidly changing electrical currents in space, driven by space weather, cause rapid geomagnetic field changes on the ground. These magnetic changes give rise to electric fields in the Earth that act as a 'battery' across conducting infrastructures. This 'battery' causes geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) to flow to or from the Earth, through conducting networks, instead of in the more resistive ground. These GIC upset the safe operation of transformers, risking damage and blackouts. GIC also cause enhanced corrosion in long metal pipeline networks and interfere with railway signalling systems.

Severe space weather in March 1989 damaged power transformers in the UK and caused a long blackout across Quebec, Canada. The most extreme space weather event known - the 'Carrington Event' of 1859 - caused widespread failures and instabilities in telegraph networks, fires in telegraph offices and auroral displays to low latitudes. The likelihood of another such extreme event is estimated to be around 10% per decade. Severe space weather is therefore recognised in the UK government's National Risk Register as a one-in-two to one-in-twenty year event, for which industry and government needs to plan to mitigate the risk. Some studies have estimated the economic consequence of space weather and GIC to run to billions of dollars per day in the major advanced economies, through the prolonged loss of electrical power.

There are mathematical models of how GIC are caused by space weather and where in the UK National Grid they may appear (there are no models of GIC flow in UK pipelines or railway networks). However these models are quite limited in what they can do and may therefore not provide a true picture of GIC risk in grounded systems, for example highlighting some locations as being at risk, when in fact any problems lie elsewhere. The electrical model that has been developed to represent GIC at transformer substations in the National Grid misses key features, such as a model of the 132kV transmission system of England and Wales, or any model for Northern Ireland. The conductivity of the subsurface of the UK is known only partly and in some areas not at all well. (We need to know the conductivity in order to compute the electric field that acts as the 'battery' for GIC.) The UK GIC models only 'now-cast', at best, and they have no forecast capability, even though this is a stated need of industry and government. We do not have tried and tested now-cast models, or even forecast models, of magnetic variations on the ground. This is because of our under-developed understanding of how currents flow in the ionosphere and magnetosphere, how these interconnect and how they relate to conditions in the solar wind.

In this project we will therefore upgrade existing or create new models that relate GIC in power, pipe and railway networks to ionospheric, magnetospheric and solar wind conditions. These models will address the issues we have identified with the current generation of models and their capabilities and provide accurate data for industry and governments to assess our risk from space weather. In making progress on these issues we will also radically improve on our physical understanding of the way electrical currents and electromagnetic fields interact near and in the Earth and how they affect the important technologies we rely on.

Planned Impact

There are three main interest groups where the proposed research will have impact.

Industry - Geohazard Impact & Assessment
Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) impact the National Grid, pipelines and railways. We will therefore have representation on our stakeholder advisory group from organisations such as National Grid plc (power and pipelines), Scottish Power (power) and Atkins (railways), as well as UK Space Agency (international space weather initiatives and measurements), MunichRe (natural hazard insurance) and the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). By interacting with this stakeholder group the investigators' scientific research into coupled ground-ionospheric-magnetospheric processes will be better tailored to their (and other) end-user needs, for example in terms of forecasts, surface electric fields or GIC model accuracy. For the National Grid our developments will add functionality and improved accuracy in GIC models already in service with them, as part of the real-time 'Monitoring and Analysis of GIC' (MAGIC) project that BGS is contracted to provide. National Grid uses MAGIC to determine where GIC is impacting their network during storms and to help inform their decision-making about the system state and operation. Our world-leading GIC and physical models of near-Earth processes will be adapted and used in other countries, and add to the international influence of the investigators. Understanding of space weather impact on pipelines and railways is a particularly under-developed area with very little in the published literature. We therefore foresee that our research will be world-leading here, likely acting as a stimulus to similar activities in other countries. We plan UK 'firsts' in terms of models of GIC flow in UK pipelines (with National Grid) and railways (with Atkins). Both National Grid and Atkins are keen to investigate the UK exposure to space weather.

Government - Geohazard Impact & Assessment
Space weather is recognised on the UK National Risk Register. Cabinet Office, BEIS, Go Science and other government departments have worked with some of the investigators, industry and industry regulators in the area of impacts on ground-based systems. Cabinet Office established the 'Space Environment Impact Expert Group' (SEIEG) to advise the government Chief Scientist through SAGE during space weather emergencies. Several SAGE 'table top' rehearsals have already been held, involving investigators from this proposal. The UK government, regional governments and assemblies, local authorities and emergency responders will therefore benefit from the quantified accuracy we will deliver from our new and improved GIC-related models. We will use our research outputs to inform discussion papers within the SEIEG group intended for government decision makers. We will also hold two 'information briefing events' to target scientifically aware lay-people from government and other agencies. This should aid information flow and decision making during severe space weather events and emergency planning in general and this will be integrated with MOSWOC daily operations.

Public - Engagement, Public Awareness, Natural Hazard Preparedness, Aurora Observation
Space weather is a topic that has had high prominence in the media over the last few years, prompting public interest in the aurora (what is it, where is it, and when to see it?). The investigators already have a strong track record in outreach activities, including the highly successful AuroraWatch website (Lancaster), public demonstrations (e.g. BGS 'Open Days'), talks and regular media activity in response to alerts of major space weather. We plan to tap into this interest and communicate what we are doing and why it matters by further investigator activities in these areas, including through a Royal Society Summer Science exhibit, where we will showcase our research and demonstrate our significantly improved GIC-related models.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description On-going investigation of tools associated with the behaviour of external currents and their ground impacts.

Outcome1: as Springer book (activities of a working group sponsored by the International Space Science institute in Berne): published
The ebook is freely available at: (currently 47526 downloads)
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-26732-2#about

Outcome 2: as an ESA highlighted study on the behaviour of ionospheric and ground currents driven by geomagnetic sub-storms: first direct demonstration of the influence on ground perturbations of a sub-storm driven plasma flow which drives electric currents into the ionosphere at auroral latitudes.
https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Swarm/Swarm_and_Cluster_get_to_the_bottom_of_geomagnetic_storms
Wei, D., M. W. Dunlop, et al (2021), Intense dB/dt variations driven by near-Earth Bursty Bulk Flows (BBFs): A case study, Geophys. Res. Letts, doi:10.1029/2020GL091781

Output 3: Submission of tender to ESA for Swarm DISC ITT 4.2 (within ESA contract 4000109587/13/I-NB):
Toolbox for Correlation and Maximum Variance Analysis of Swarm Time-series Data Products. Currently under review by ESA (decision expected soon).
Exploitation Route Use of published book on methods

Response by ESA to our submitted Swarm DISC idea: generation of an ITT as above.

Highlighted paper illustrating connection science using both inner and outer spacecraft data and ground stations.
Sectors Aerospace

Defence and Marine

Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software)

Other

URL http://www.issibern.ch/publications/pdf/ar/ar21.pdf
 
Description ESA's Swarm project management set up a workshop as part of its Swarm DISC (Data, Innovation and Science Cluster) activity to assess the various field-aligned current estimating methods: Methodology Inter-Comparison Exercise (MICE): meeting held in September 2017 Possible outcome : tool book for ionospheric methods applicable to the Swarm mission.
First Year Of Impact 2017
Sector Other
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description ESA-SSA contract: SSA-P2-SWE-XVI - SWARM Utilization Analysis
Amount € 200,000 (EUR)
Organisation ESA - ESTEC 
Sector Public
Country Netherlands
Start 03/2016 
End 06/2017
 
Description ESTEC Contract No 4000106388/12/NL/BJ/lf
Amount € 16,900 (EUR)
Funding ID ESTEC Contract No 4000106388/12/NL/BJ/lf 
Organisation ESA - ESTEC 
Sector Public
Country Netherlands
Start 02/2013 
End 03/2014
 
Description Swarm DISC ITT 4.2(Doc. No. SW-TCDTU- GS-128, Rev: 1) Toolbox for Correlation and Maximum Variance Analysis of Swarm Time-series Data Products
Amount € 100,000 (EUR)
Funding ID 4000109587/13/I-NB 
Organisation ESA - ESTEC 
Sector Public
Country Netherlands
Start 04/2024 
End 05/2025
 
Description Swarm DISC ITT 4.4 - 'Swarm for Space Weather'
Amount € 100,000 (EUR)
Funding ID 4000109587/13/I-NB SWARM ESL 
Organisation ESA - ESTEC 
Sector Public
Country Netherlands
Start 11/2022 
End 05/2024
 
Title Multi-spacecraft ionospheric methods 
Description Methods applied to the inner magnetosphere and ionosphere. Tailored for analysis of SWARM magnetic field data. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Springer Book published 2020. Dunlop, M. W. and H. Luhr (eds) (2020), Multi-satellite data analysis: Approaches for Deriving Ionospheric Parameters, ISSI scientific reports volume 17, Springer, DOI:10.1007/978-3-030-26732-2 
URL http://www.issibern.ch/publications/pdf/ar/ar21.pdf
 
Title Swarm FAC correlations/orientations 
Description A proposal to the ESA Swarm Call for Ideas for new data products and services (Swarm_DISC_CallForIdeas@esa.int) Titled: Combined Swarm FAC correlations/orientations and ground GICs, has been selected for a future ESA - ITT. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact This tool would be of interest to both the geomagnetic and the magnetospheric/ionospheric communities, as well as extreme space weather, since it addresses the variability and form of FAC signatures at different altitudes (on the ground and in the ionosphere and magnetosphere). Better understanding will progress knowledge of the internal and external geomagnetic field sources. 
 
Description Professor at Beihang University 
Organisation Beihang University
Country China 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Exchange of visiting personnel and joint research
Collaborator Contribution Exchange of visiting personnel and joint research. Travel funding.
Impact This appointment was renewed at the end of 2018. Beihang U are named PP on this grant Publications, method development.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Professor at Imperial College London - re-established during grant 
Organisation Imperial College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaborations on joint science papers.
Collaborator Contribution Joint activities on ISSI science teams Collaborations on joint science papers.
Impact International team (International Space Science Institute) Selected science papers
Start Year 2018
 
Description Professor at Warwick University 
Organisation University of Warwick
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Joint research papers.
Collaborator Contribution Joint involvement on masters projects at Warwick.
Impact anticipated this year.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Space weather impact on rail systems 
Organisation Network Rail Ltd
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution We have specified an initial set of periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity over the UK (characterised by dB/dt at Eskdalemuir Observatory) and passed these to Network Rail so they can make a preliminary survey of their asset failure data and see if there are any correlations.
Collaborator Contribution Support and advice via teleconferences, informal agreements to work with us to explore the correlation of rail anomalies with geomagnetic activity. Provision of two sets of rail system anomaly data: (a) UK national coverage for two moderate storms in March 2015 and September 2017; (b) detailed reports from Wales and the Marches covering major storms in 2003 to 2005.
Impact First detailed analysis of rail anomaly data presented at SWIGS team workshop in September 2018. Follow-up presented at next team workshop in September 2019, emphasising the importance of vortex-like signatures in geomagnetic perturbations.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Space weather impact on rail systems 
Organisation WS Atkins
Department Atkins Rail
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution We have specified an initial set of periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity over the UK (characterised by dB/dt at Eskdalemuir Observatory) and passed these to Network Rail so they can make a preliminary survey of their asset failure data and see if there are any correlations.
Collaborator Contribution Support and advice via teleconferences, informal agreements to work with us to explore the correlation of rail anomalies with geomagnetic activity. Provision of two sets of rail system anomaly data: (a) UK national coverage for two moderate storms in March 2015 and September 2017; (b) detailed reports from Wales and the Marches covering major storms in 2003 to 2005.
Impact First detailed analysis of rail anomaly data presented at SWIGS team workshop in September 2018. Follow-up presented at next team workshop in September 2019, emphasising the importance of vortex-like signatures in geomagnetic perturbations.
Start Year 2017
 
Description 50th anniversary of launch of Apollo 11 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Interview on BBC Radio Berkshire to recall my memories of Apollo 11 on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of its launch, and how that inspired me to follow a scientific career - and hence into my current work on space weather.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p07fvj6r
 
Description 50th anniversary of the Moon landing - spiritual dimension 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Interview on BBC Radio Berkshire's early Sunday morning programme on religious matters - to give a scientist's perspective on how the first Moon landing inspired spiritual thinking, both in terms of the 1969 response of some religious leaders and personal thoughts on the spiritual impact of the landing and how that relates to scientific understanding.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p07fz3v7
 
Description AGU fall meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 3-5 presentations at the meeting.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018,2020,2021,2022,2023
 
Description AOGS conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact invited presentation 2018
presentations in 2019
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018,2019
 
Description Chapman conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Chapman Conference on CURRENTS IN GEOSPACE. Proceedings published by AGU books.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Cluster 29th Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation made
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Debunking myths about space weather impacts on sub-oceanic internet links 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact In late summer of 2021, I discovered that a computer science conference paper had made ridiculous claims about space weather causing severe damage to the sub-oceanic fibre optic cables that carry the bulk (99%) of internet traffic across the oceans. The paper had been peer-reviewed but by someone who did not understand the basics of how space weather induces voltages in the crust of the Earth. The paper assumed that large currents would flow in the power circuits of these cables - without any understanding that the currents are determined by Ohm's Law. In fact the currents would be 100 times smaller - in line with existing observations of space weather effects on similar systems. I challenged the paper via Twitter (as did some other colleagues) and got some good feedback, including citations in media. More importantly, this then stimulated discussions with other experts and inclusion of a rebuttal in the latest UK space weather scenarios . This information has now helped the responsible UK department (DCMS) to address the media hype and be more confident that this is not a big problem for UK resilience against space weather.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description EGU 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact conference
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description EGU general assembly 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Oral Presentation on Correlation analysis of field-aligned currents measured by Swarm (FACs vs GICs)
Feedback from questions
Presentations on BBF induced GIC event
presentations on electron response in the magnetopause boundary layer.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024
 
Description ESA highlighted study for Swarm and cluster missions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact ESA highlighted paper to illustrate connection science Ground-ionosphere-magnetosphere
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Swarm/Swarm_and_Cluster_get_to_the_bottom_of_ge...
 
Description ESWW - space weather meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Poster presentation
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019,2020,2021,2022,2024
 
Description Invited presentations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact IAGA conference 2021: session on magnetospheric boundary layers
Multi-scale structures of dayside current layer and secondary reconnection beside ion-scale flux ropes

Cluster 22th anniversary conference (delayed from 2020)

COSPAR 2024

Swarm 10th anniversary workshop
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021,2022,2023,2024
URL https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/jgr/journal/21699402/features/call-for-papers
 
Description It's not just satellites: bad space weather reaches the ground 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Oral talk reviewing how space weather can disrupt ground-based systems, presented to mixed audience of researchers and people from sectors at risk from disruption (in this case disruption by space weather)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description MICE: Methodology Inter-Comparison Exercise 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Working group set up by ESA to support the SWARM analysis. Topic was the comparison of outputs from different methods to assess quality parameters and the effect of physical conditions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description MIST meeting 3 days 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentations made
BBF induced GIC event
Magnetopause reconnection layer
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018,2019,2020,2021
 
Description RAS discussion meeting: 1 day 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Posters and presentations for the SWIGS consortium...
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description RAS discussion meeting: 1 day 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentations made relating to SWIGS at the meeting on:
The Global Response of the Terrestrial Magnetosphere During Storms and Substorms.
SMILE related presentation in 2022
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019,2021,2022
 
Description RAS specialist meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021,2022
 
Description SMILE SWT 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Science working team meeting for the SMILE mission.
presentation made on coordinatoin of SWARM, ground and Space measurements
Presentation on BBF induced GIC event.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024
 
Description SMILE consortium meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Consortium meeting to discuss development on upcoming ESA-China space weather science mission
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018,2020
 
Description SWARM 9th/10th DQW 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Poster presentation
Oral presentation - highlighted
Participation in working groups
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024
 
Description SWIGS progress meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Progress and planning meeting
SWIGS annual meeting - presentation on FAC techniques and GIC event
Announcement of Multi-spacecraft methods book publication
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018,2020,2021
 
Description Should we care about space weather? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact I was interviewed by BBC Weather meteorologist Simon King and Clare Nasir for a podcast on space weather as part of BBC series "Under the Weather". My interview was the fifth podcast in the series and entitled "Should we care about space weather?", released 16 April 2018
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p064f6s3
 
Description Simple scenarios for simulating severe space weather impacts on power grids 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Poster presentation on simulation of scenarios of disruptive events, presented to mixed audience of researchers and people from sectors at risk from disruption (in this case disruption by space weather)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://purl.org/net/epubs/work/41018576
 
Description Talk at UK Space Safety Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 2-hour Zoom session to present the development of the UK space weather reasonable worst case scenarios to a wider audience, mainly UK-based but also participants from elsewhere in Europe and North America. The session complemented recently a published technical report and peer-reviewed paper on same subject. It comprised a slide-based presentation interspersed with several Q&A periods, such it neatly fitted the two hours allocated. From the presenter's viewpoint it was great fun as we had plenty of time for questions and a lot of good questions - much better than a monologue.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL http://uksem.iopconfs.org/Home
 
Description Working group on multi-spacecraft ionospheric tools 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Working group on multi-spacecraft ionospheric tools. Book of science based chapters in pres.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018,2019
URL http://www.issibern.ch/workinggroups/ionosphericspacecraft/