Building Resilient Cities for Heat Waves
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology
Abstract
As projected by IPCC (with higher confidence compared to other weather extremes e.g., precipitation, cold, extremes), heat waves (HWs), excessively hot periods, are likely to occur more frequently, with higher intensities, and with longer duration, in the coming decades. Cities differ from their surroundings in terms of built forms, materials, and intensive anthropogenic activities. These differences result in the well-known urban heat island (UHI) effect, whereby cities are often warmer than their surroundings. HWs are exacerbated by the UHI effect and cause cities to be more vulnerable to HWs resulting in greater thermal stresses for urban residents. This is of particular concern for those residents susceptible to heat-related illness, given the intensified HW scenarios in the near future, and worldwide with more people living in urban environments. As such, building resilient cities for HWs warrants urgent attention.
Resilience is "the capacity of a community or society to adapt when exposed to a hazard". In order to build resilient cities for HWs, the key is in understanding the responses of cities to HWs under varying scenarios: as climate changes, the climate extremes may also vary, which forces the urban systems through a "dose-response" function and subsequently leads to different biophysical impacts. The "dose-response" functions between climate and biophysical impacts in cities are essentially determined by the urban-atmospheric interactions, where the surface energy balance is one of the keys to greater understanding.
In this Fellowship, I will employ both modelling and observational approaches to investigate the urban-atmospheric interactions as well as the urban surface energy balance under HWs. An adaptable tool, the analytical urban climate (ANUC) framework, will be developed for better understanding the urban-atmospheric interactions under heat waves. Compared with other popular numerically-based urban climate models, the ANUC framework features analytical rather than numerical expressions of various climate variables, which relieves the framework from expensive computational burdens and facilitates the exploration of as many HW scenarios as possible. The observations will emphasise the urban-rural contrasts in surface energy balance by constructing urban-rural flux observation pairs worldwide, the results of which are expected to allow generalisation of the urban-rural characteristics of the surface energy balance under different climates. Based upon the ANUC framework and the global urban-rural SEB characteristics, I will justify the effectiveness of different engineering approaches for mitigating thermal stress under HWs of the present-day and future climates by conducting many ANUC simulations.
This Fellowship will shape a better understanding of the dynamics between cities and the atmosphere under HWs and will assess the effectiveness of mitigation strategies of cities under present-day and future climates, which will help building up HW resilient cities of the future.
Resilience is "the capacity of a community or society to adapt when exposed to a hazard". In order to build resilient cities for HWs, the key is in understanding the responses of cities to HWs under varying scenarios: as climate changes, the climate extremes may also vary, which forces the urban systems through a "dose-response" function and subsequently leads to different biophysical impacts. The "dose-response" functions between climate and biophysical impacts in cities are essentially determined by the urban-atmospheric interactions, where the surface energy balance is one of the keys to greater understanding.
In this Fellowship, I will employ both modelling and observational approaches to investigate the urban-atmospheric interactions as well as the urban surface energy balance under HWs. An adaptable tool, the analytical urban climate (ANUC) framework, will be developed for better understanding the urban-atmospheric interactions under heat waves. Compared with other popular numerically-based urban climate models, the ANUC framework features analytical rather than numerical expressions of various climate variables, which relieves the framework from expensive computational burdens and facilitates the exploration of as many HW scenarios as possible. The observations will emphasise the urban-rural contrasts in surface energy balance by constructing urban-rural flux observation pairs worldwide, the results of which are expected to allow generalisation of the urban-rural characteristics of the surface energy balance under different climates. Based upon the ANUC framework and the global urban-rural SEB characteristics, I will justify the effectiveness of different engineering approaches for mitigating thermal stress under HWs of the present-day and future climates by conducting many ANUC simulations.
This Fellowship will shape a better understanding of the dynamics between cities and the atmosphere under HWs and will assess the effectiveness of mitigation strategies of cities under present-day and future climates, which will help building up HW resilient cities of the future.
Planned Impact
This fellowship will shape a better understanding of the dynamics between cities and the atmosphere under HWs and will assess the effectiveness of different heat mitigation strategies of cities under present-day and future climates, which will lead to HW resilient cities by reducing thermal stress.
The non-academic beneficiaries of this Fellowship include climate service sectors and school children.
1) Climate Service Sectors
Climate service sectors will benefit from the Analytical Urban Climate (ANUC) framework, a state-of-the-art urban climate toolkit developed in this Fellowship, by providing modelling needs and conducting climate service driven simulations. Users in these sectors include infrastructure providers, human health sectors, logistics organisations, etc. The ANUC framework is designed as an agile simulation tool so that the climate service sectors can more rapidly get informed with possible impacts of various infrastructure designs and synoptic processes on urban climate.
2) School Children
Young people are interested and concerned about the environment and climate change and it is they who are the future policy makers, scientists, engineers, etc. Given this, I propose to develop some online resources, based on the ANUC framework, to increase awareness of climate change and enhance understanding of climate science. By presenting not only the simulations and impacts of HWs on urban climate and the effectiveness of heat mitigation measures by designing and performing ANUC simulations, the underlying analytical framework will also be explained to show the importance and application of mathematics to real-world environmental issues and understanding. These resources will be appropriate for use by teachers in classrooms or interested students (KS3 level and above). Delivery of both elements will involve an interactive website to demonstrate the impacts of HWs on urban climate and the effectiveness of different heat mitigation measures under HWs in various climates. The website will be driven by the ANUC framework in the Wolfram Cloud, which will enable it to be interactive and to be able to use global climate forcing data. Interactive functions will be implemented to allow the users to design and perform simulations in their cities and other areas of interest over the world under both present-day and future climates.
The non-academic beneficiaries of this Fellowship include climate service sectors and school children.
1) Climate Service Sectors
Climate service sectors will benefit from the Analytical Urban Climate (ANUC) framework, a state-of-the-art urban climate toolkit developed in this Fellowship, by providing modelling needs and conducting climate service driven simulations. Users in these sectors include infrastructure providers, human health sectors, logistics organisations, etc. The ANUC framework is designed as an agile simulation tool so that the climate service sectors can more rapidly get informed with possible impacts of various infrastructure designs and synoptic processes on urban climate.
2) School Children
Young people are interested and concerned about the environment and climate change and it is they who are the future policy makers, scientists, engineers, etc. Given this, I propose to develop some online resources, based on the ANUC framework, to increase awareness of climate change and enhance understanding of climate science. By presenting not only the simulations and impacts of HWs on urban climate and the effectiveness of heat mitigation measures by designing and performing ANUC simulations, the underlying analytical framework will also be explained to show the importance and application of mathematics to real-world environmental issues and understanding. These resources will be appropriate for use by teachers in classrooms or interested students (KS3 level and above). Delivery of both elements will involve an interactive website to demonstrate the impacts of HWs on urban climate and the effectiveness of different heat mitigation measures under HWs in various climates. The website will be driven by the ANUC framework in the Wolfram Cloud, which will enable it to be interactive and to be able to use global climate forcing data. Interactive functions will be implemented to allow the users to design and perform simulations in their cities and other areas of interest over the world under both present-day and future climates.
Publications
Zhu X
(2017)
An idealized LES study of urban modification of moist convection
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Yu Z
(2021)
Impact of heat storage on remote-sensing based quantification of anthropogenic heat in urban environments
in Remote Sensing of Environment
Xing Y
(2019)
Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization and Open Water Surface on Heavy Convective Rainfall: A Case Study over the Emerging Xiong'an City, China
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Xie X
(2022)
Impact of inter-building longwave radiative exchanges on building energy performance and indoor overheating
in Building and Environment
White C
(2022)
Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions
in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Wang F
(2019)
Evaluation of the WRF lake module (v1.0) and its improvements at a deep reservoir
in Geoscientific Model Development
Tang Y
(2021)
Urban meteorological forcing data for building energy simulations
in Building and Environment
Sun T
(2017)
Attribution and mitigation of heat wave-induced urban heat storage change
in Environmental Research Letters
Sun T
(2019)
Responses
Sun T
(2019)
A Python-enhanced urban land surface model SuPy (SUEWS in Python, v2019.2): development, deployment and demonstration
in Geoscientific Model Development
Sun T
(2017)
The Analytical Objective Hysteresis Model (AnOHM v1.0): methodology to determine bulk storage heat flux coefficients
in Geoscientific Model Development
Omidvar H
(2022)
Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (v2020a) in vegetated areas: parameter derivation and performance evaluation using FLUXNET2015 dataset
in Geoscientific Model Development
Lindberg F
(2018)
Urban Multi-scale Environmental Predictor (UMEP): An integrated tool for city-based climate services
in Environmental Modelling & Software
Lindberg F
(2020)
Urban storage heat flux variability explored using satellite, meteorological and geodata
in Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Li B
(2021)
A multi-factor integrated method of calculation unit delineation for hydrological modeling in large mountainous basins
in Journal of Hydrology
Kong F
(2022)
Impact of 3-D urban landscape patterns on the outdoor thermal environment: A modelling study with SOLWEIG
in Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
Israelsson J
(2022)
Impact of climate change on hospital admissions: a case study of the Royal Berkshire Hospital in the UK
in Meteorological Applications
Huang W
(2022)
Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales
in Environmental Research Letters
Huang W
(2020)
Weather regimes and patterns associated with temperature-related excess mortality in the UK: a pathway to sub-seasonal risk forecasting
in Environmental Research Letters
Hu X
(2017)
Impact of climate variability and change on crime rates in Tangshan, China.
in The Science of the total environment
Hu X
(2017)
Contrasting impacts of heat stress on violent and nonviolent robbery in Beijing, China
in Natural Hazards
Duan Z
(2021)
Seasonal and Interannual Variations in the Surface Energy Fluxes of a Rice-Wheat Rotation in Eastern China
in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Capel-Timms I
(2020)
Dynamic Anthropogenic activitieS impacting Heat emissions (DASH v1.0): development and evaluation
in Geoscientific Model Development
Description | Climate service for resilience to overheating risk in Colombo, Sri Lanka: a multi-scale mapping approach (COSMA) |
Amount | £252,917 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/S005889/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2019 |
End | 12/2022 |
Description | Tsinghua University, China |
Organisation | Tsinghua University China |
Department | Department of Hydraulic Engineering |
Country | China |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Co-supervision of PhD students. |
Collaborator Contribution | Co-supervision of PhD students. |
Impact | N/A |
Start Year | 2016 |
Title | SHAFTS |
Description | Deep-learning-based simultaneous extraction of building height and footprint from Sentinel imagery |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | SHAFTS is used in the development of a global dataset of urban morphology, which will be an essential and fundamental dataset for global urban climate modelling. |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/7717081#.ZAtXki-l20o |
Title | SUEWS v2018 |
Description | A sophisticated urban land surface model |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Impact | - widely used in urban climate community - enhanced portability for further model coupling (e.g., Weather Research and Forecasting model) |
URL | https://suews-docs.readthedocs.io |
Title | SUEWS v2019a |
Description | An urban land surface model |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | A roughness sublayer scheme has been added to this release that can diagnose profiles of temperature, humidity and wind speed within roughness sublayer. |
URL | http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3533450 |
Title | SuPy: a Python-enhanced urban land surface model |
Description | Accurate and agile modelling of the climate of cities is essential for urban climate services. The Surface Urban Energy and Water balance Scheme (SUEWS) is a state-of-the-art, widely used, urban land surface model (ULSM) which simulates urban-atmospheric interactions by quantifying the energy, water and mass fluxes. Using SUEWS as the computation kernel, SuPy (SUEWS in Python), stands on the Python-based data stack to streamline the pre-processing, computation and post-processing that are involved in the common modelling-centred urban climate studies. This paper documents the development of SuPy, which includes the SUEWS interface modification, F2PY (Fortran to Python) configuration and Python frontend implementation. In addition, the deployment of SuPy via PyPI (Python Package Index) is introduced along with the automated workflow for cross-platform compilation. This makes SuPy available for all mainstream operating systems (Windows, Linux, and macOS). Furthermore, three online tutorials in Jupyter notebooks are provided to users of different levels to become familiar with SuPy urban climate modelling. The SuPy package represents a significant enhancement that supports existing and new model applications, reproducibility, and enhanced functionality. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | - available for all mainstream operating systems (Windows, Linux, and macOS). - free online tutorials in Jupyter notebooks are provided to users of different levels to become familiar with SuPy urban climate modelling. - a significant enhancement that supports existing and new model applications, reproducibility, and enhanced functionality. |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/2574404 |
Description | Interview by Common Vision |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | The interview by Common Vision is used as part of the website - Hold this space - for arousing public awareness of climate change and sustainable future. Hold This Space is a self-guided website which helps you reflect on your emotional response to climate change, imagine a better future, and understand the actions you can take to address the climate crisis. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://holdthis.space/about-hold-this-space/ |