Half a degree Additional warming: Prognosis and Projected Impacts on Health (HAPPI-Health)
Lead Research Organisation:
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Department Name: Public Health and Policy
Abstract
The most recent Lancet Commissions on climate change and health concluded that "Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century". Here, we specifically consider the thermal-health component of the future climate-health burden in an attempt to estimate, for the first time, the number of temperature related deaths under future climate change in developing regions of the world. This number is surprisingly hard to calculate even with large error bars. Aside from the uncertainties in climate projections, the relationship between heat stress and human health varies significantly between countries, and even between cities within the same country. Estimates have been made on a regional scale in some developed countries. For instance, in the UK, a ~250% increase in heat related mortality by the year 2050 was estimated from an annual baseline of ~2000 current deaths (Hajat et al, 2014). This proposal aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of extreme temperatures and associated temperature-related mortality in all regions of the globe, including previously avoided regions such as developing nations, by characterising the uncertainties in different methods of climate change projections, mechanisms driving the extremes, and their relationship to the temperature-health burden at the city level.
Specifically, for future climate we consider Paris Agreement climate scenarios. The Paris Agreement aims to limit globally averaged temperatures to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue ambitions to limit it to 1.5C. But this aim is currently supported by rather thin scientific evidence (James et al, 2016), in particular with respect to relative risks of high-impact extreme weather events. Sea level rise aside, the impacts of a global warming of 1.5C, and the impacts avoided by stabilising temperatures at 1.5 instead of 2C, will be dominated, in most regions of the world, by changing risks of extreme weather events, hence the relevance of our proposed research. Fischer & Knutti (2015) estimate that, on a global average, the occurrence of heat extremes doubles between 1.5 & 2C warming. For individual regions, large-scale averages do not provide an adequate basis for decisions on risk prevention and resilience. Changes in atmospheric dynamics and factors other than greenhouse gases also affect heat and rainfall extremes, and, locally, may yield changes in risk that are either greater than or even opposed to the global average (Schaller et al, 2016).
The Paris Agreement calls for research into the impacts of a given level of warming, not the impacts of a scenario that is expected, at some probability, to yield a given level of warming. This requires a new approach to estimate future climate which is complementary to the scenario-driven experiments that provide the core of CMIP5 and CMIP6. To address this, we employ the newly developed Half a degree Additional warming; Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI; Mitchell et al, 2016a) scenario set - a set of targeted experiments specifically designed to address questions related to the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5C and 2C global averaged warming anomalies.
The Paris Agreement is a major step forward for the international climate community, and will play a large role in the next IPCC report (AR6) and well beyond. This proposal brings together experts in climate (Mitchell and Allen) and health (Gasparrini), to provide a comprehensive analysis of one the key impacts of climate change, temperature related mortality. It provides an assessment of what drives extreme temperatures, where the climate change signals are largest, and how these impact on the regional- and city-level health burden around the world.
Specifically, for future climate we consider Paris Agreement climate scenarios. The Paris Agreement aims to limit globally averaged temperatures to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue ambitions to limit it to 1.5C. But this aim is currently supported by rather thin scientific evidence (James et al, 2016), in particular with respect to relative risks of high-impact extreme weather events. Sea level rise aside, the impacts of a global warming of 1.5C, and the impacts avoided by stabilising temperatures at 1.5 instead of 2C, will be dominated, in most regions of the world, by changing risks of extreme weather events, hence the relevance of our proposed research. Fischer & Knutti (2015) estimate that, on a global average, the occurrence of heat extremes doubles between 1.5 & 2C warming. For individual regions, large-scale averages do not provide an adequate basis for decisions on risk prevention and resilience. Changes in atmospheric dynamics and factors other than greenhouse gases also affect heat and rainfall extremes, and, locally, may yield changes in risk that are either greater than or even opposed to the global average (Schaller et al, 2016).
The Paris Agreement calls for research into the impacts of a given level of warming, not the impacts of a scenario that is expected, at some probability, to yield a given level of warming. This requires a new approach to estimate future climate which is complementary to the scenario-driven experiments that provide the core of CMIP5 and CMIP6. To address this, we employ the newly developed Half a degree Additional warming; Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI; Mitchell et al, 2016a) scenario set - a set of targeted experiments specifically designed to address questions related to the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5C and 2C global averaged warming anomalies.
The Paris Agreement is a major step forward for the international climate community, and will play a large role in the next IPCC report (AR6) and well beyond. This proposal brings together experts in climate (Mitchell and Allen) and health (Gasparrini), to provide a comprehensive analysis of one the key impacts of climate change, temperature related mortality. It provides an assessment of what drives extreme temperatures, where the climate change signals are largest, and how these impact on the regional- and city-level health burden around the world.
Planned Impact
Policy makers
One of the most important impacts of climate change is the possibility of enhanced extreme weather events. Many aspects of political decision making involve interpreting the scientific evidence presented, this spans the national levels, to the city governance. For instance makes decisions on city preparedness during heat waves. As such, reliable estimates of projected climate are required in order to accurately inform these decisions. Research from this project will directly contribute to the reliability of projected extreme weather risk under 1.5C and 2C scenarios and therefore aid in policy discussions, especially at the city level, where temperature-mortality impacts become more important. Note that it is imperative for our research on 1.5 v. 2C commences immediately to ensure that papers are submitted in time for the IPCC AR6 report, for which the publication deadline is likely to be October 2020. Work beyond that scope will also be highly relevant for other major reports, for instance the Lancet Commission on Climate Change, as well as annual statements made by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Though these reports, and though annual reports from our project partners, the Met Office and Public Health England, our science has the potential to influence policy at a range of levels.
The public
Extreme events are currently at the forefront of public concern according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), while coverage of potential links to climate change and the impacts have increased in the recent years. Examples include the recent long lived Californian drought, widespread flooding in the southern UK, and bleaching of coral off the coast of Australia, all prompting huge media coverage. By increasing our understanding of the link between heat and mortality, and how this might change in the future, this project will clearly be attractive to media outlets and more generally the public community. For instance, a precursor paper to this project (Mitchell et al, 2016, Environmental Research Letters), approaching this question from a climate-attribution point of view, experienced high-levels of coverage both in academic journals (e.g. Brown, 2016, Nature Climate Change), and in the media (e.g. The Guardian, the Daily Mail, Carbon Brief). We will maximise this through inviting new, and previously established contacts from the media, academia and policy circles to an end of project summary meeting, where the project results will be presented and more widely disseminated, including discussions on implications for the different sectors.
One of the most important impacts of climate change is the possibility of enhanced extreme weather events. Many aspects of political decision making involve interpreting the scientific evidence presented, this spans the national levels, to the city governance. For instance makes decisions on city preparedness during heat waves. As such, reliable estimates of projected climate are required in order to accurately inform these decisions. Research from this project will directly contribute to the reliability of projected extreme weather risk under 1.5C and 2C scenarios and therefore aid in policy discussions, especially at the city level, where temperature-mortality impacts become more important. Note that it is imperative for our research on 1.5 v. 2C commences immediately to ensure that papers are submitted in time for the IPCC AR6 report, for which the publication deadline is likely to be October 2020. Work beyond that scope will also be highly relevant for other major reports, for instance the Lancet Commission on Climate Change, as well as annual statements made by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Though these reports, and though annual reports from our project partners, the Met Office and Public Health England, our science has the potential to influence policy at a range of levels.
The public
Extreme events are currently at the forefront of public concern according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), while coverage of potential links to climate change and the impacts have increased in the recent years. Examples include the recent long lived Californian drought, widespread flooding in the southern UK, and bleaching of coral off the coast of Australia, all prompting huge media coverage. By increasing our understanding of the link between heat and mortality, and how this might change in the future, this project will clearly be attractive to media outlets and more generally the public community. For instance, a precursor paper to this project (Mitchell et al, 2016, Environmental Research Letters), approaching this question from a climate-attribution point of view, experienced high-levels of coverage both in academic journals (e.g. Brown, 2016, Nature Climate Change), and in the media (e.g. The Guardian, the Daily Mail, Carbon Brief). We will maximise this through inviting new, and previously established contacts from the media, academia and policy circles to an end of project summary meeting, where the project results will be presented and more widely disseminated, including discussions on implications for the different sectors.
Organisations
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (Lead Research Organisation)
- HARVARD UNIVERSITY (Collaboration)
- Columbia University (Collaboration)
- Ben-Gurion University of the Negev (Collaboration)
- Swiss Tropical & Public Health Institute (Collaboration)
- University of Ottawa (Collaboration)
- European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ECMWF (Collaboration)
- University of Hasselt (Collaboration)
- Public Health Agency of Canada (Collaboration)
- Lazio Regional Health Service (Collaboration)
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) (Collaboration)
- European Space Agency (Collaboration)
- Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU Munich) (Collaboration)
- University of Leuven (Collaboration)
- Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (Collaboration)
Publications
Liu C
(2022)
Coarse Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality: A Global Study in 205 Cities
in American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine
Vicedo-Cabrera A
(2020)
Short term association between ozone and mortality: global two stage time series study in 406 locations in 20 countries
in BMJ
Meng X
(2021)
Short term associations of ambient nitrogen dioxide with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality: multilocation analysis in 398 cities.
in BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
Alahmad B
(2023)
Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries.
in Circulation
Vicedo-Cabrera AM
(2018)
Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.
in Climatic change
Choi HM
(2022)
Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality: A multi-city multi-country study.
in EBioMedicine
Stafoggia M
(2023)
Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries.
in Environment international
Sim K
(2020)
Nonlinear temperature-suicide association in Japan from 1972 to 2015: Its heterogeneity and the role of climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors.
in Environment international
Lee J
(2019)
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
in Environment International
TobĂas A
(2021)
Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale: A Multicountry Study.
in Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.)
Sera F
(2022)
Extended two-stage designs for environmental research.
in Environmental health : a global access science source
Scortichini M
(2018)
The inter-annual variability of heat-related mortality in nine European cities (1990-2010).
in Environmental health : a global access science source
Madaniyazi L
(2021)
Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015
in Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine
De Schrijver E
(2022)
Nationwide Analysis of the Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Trends in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017: The Role of Population Aging
in Environmental Health Perspectives
Armstrong B
(2019)
The Role of Humidity in Associations of High Temperature with Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicity Study
in Environmental Health Perspectives
Onozuka D
(2019)
Modeling Future Projections of Temperature-Related Excess Morbidity due to Infectious Gastroenteritis under Climate Change Conditions in Japan.
in Environmental health perspectives
Armstrong B
(2019)
Erratum: "The Role of Humidity in Associations of High Temperature with Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicity Study"
in Environmental Health Perspectives
Kim Y
(2019)
Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-Country Multi-City Study.
in Environmental health perspectives
Nottmeyer LN
(2021)
Influence of temperature, and of relative and absolute humidity on COVID-19 incidence in England - A multi-city time-series study.
in Environmental research
Huber V
(2020)
Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming.
in Environmental research
Moirano G
(2018)
West Nile Virus infection in Northern Italy: Case-crossover study on the short-term effect of climatic parameters.
in Environmental research
Urban A
(2021)
Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis-based Universal Thermal Climate Index on mortality data in Europe.
in Environmental research
Lo Y
(2022)
Estimating heat-related mortality in near real time for national heatwave plans
in Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]
Lo YTE
(2022)
Estimating heat-related mortality in near real time for national heatwave plans.
in Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]
De Schrijver E
(2023)
Exploring vulnerability to heat and cold across urban and rural populations in Switzerland
in Environmental Research: Health
Zare Sakhvidi MJ
(2022)
Extreme environmental temperatures and motorcycle crashes: a time-series analysis.
in Environmental science and pollution research international
Royé D
(2021)
Effects of Hot Nights on Mortality in Southern Europe.
in Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
Sera F
(2020)
Air Conditioning and Heat-related Mortality: A Multi-country Longitudinal Study.
in Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
Masselot P
(2022)
Differential Mortality Risks Associated With PM2.5 Components: A Multi-Country, Multi-City Study.
in Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
Scovronick N
(2019)
Human Health and the Social Cost of Carbon: A Primer and Call to Action.
in Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
Vicedo-Cabrera AM
(2019)
Hands-on Tutorial on a Modeling Framework for Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Health.
in Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
Yu J
(2020)
Seasonality of suicide: a multi-country multi-community observational study.
in Epidemiology and psychiatric sciences
De Schrijver E
(2021)
A Comparative Analysis of the Temperature-Mortality Risks Using Different Weather Datasets Across Heterogeneous Regions.
in GeoHealth
Wu Y
(2022)
Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe.
in Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))
Petkova EP
(2021)
Mortality attributable to heat and cold among the elderly in Sofia, Bulgaria.
in International journal of biometeorology
Lo Y
(2023)
Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat-related mortality varies from country to country
in International Journal of Climatology
Jacobson LDSV
(2021)
Mortality Risk from Respiratory Diseases Due to Non-Optimal Temperature among Brazilian Elderlies.
in International journal of environmental research and public health
Analitis A
(2018)
Synergistic Effects of Ambient Temperature and Air Pollution on Health in Europe: Results from the PHASE Project
in International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Corcuera Hotz I
(2020)
The Effects of Temperature on Accident and Emergency Department Attendances in London: A Time-Series Regression Analysis.
in International journal of environmental research and public health
Sera F
(2019)
How urban characteristics affect vulnerability to heat and cold: a multi-country analysis
in International Journal of Epidemiology
Madaniyazi L
(2022)
Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study.
in International journal of epidemiology
Wiru K
(2020)
The Influence of Apparent Temperature on Mortality in the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance Area in the Middle Belt of Ghana: A Retrospective Time-Series Analysis.
in Journal of environmental and public health
Lee Whanhee
(2020)
Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study
in LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH
Zhao Qi
(2021)
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
in LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH
Vicedo-Cabrera AM
(2021)
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.
in Nature climate change
Vicedo-Cabrera A
(2021)
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
in Nature climate change
Sera F
(2021)
A cross-sectional analysis of meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 409 cities across 26 countries.
in Nature communications
Khraishah H
(2022)
Climate change and cardiovascular disease: implications for global health.
in Nature reviews. Cardiology
Description | Modern methods for time series analysis |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Description | Temperature, climate change and health |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Description | Use of DLNMs in temperature-health studies |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
URL | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/myncbi/collections/public/10kxh85C77hGm5PFkch6qfQ/ |
Title | Personal website |
Description | The website provides access to the outputs of my research, such as pdf versions and supplemental material of the published papers, summaries and updates of my research activity, and other information. In particular, scripts and data for reproducing the results of methodological or substantive papers are made available thorough the website. |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2012 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The website is visited by 5-10 visitors each day. They download materials such as articles, scripts and data. |
URL | http://www.ag-myresearch.com/ |
Title | R package mvmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running extended meta-analytical models. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of extended meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mixmeta/index.html |
Title | R package mvmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running univariate or multivariate meta-analysis and meta-regression. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2011 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of multivariate meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mvmeta/index.html |
Title | Personal website |
Description | The website provides access to the outputs of my research, such as pdf versions and supplemental material of the published papers, summaries and updates of my research activity, and other information. In particular, scripts and data for reproducing the results of methodological or substantive papers are made available thorough the website. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2012 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The website is visited by 5-10 visitors each day. They download materials such as articles, scripts and data. |
URL | http://www.ag-myresearch.com/ |
Title | R package mixmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running extended meta-analytical models. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of extended meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. Impact on application of meta-analytical approaches, certified by the use of the technique in several peer-reviewed articles by different research groups: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/myncbi/collections/public/10kxh85C77hGm5PFkch6qfQ/ |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mixmeta/index.html |
Title | R package mvmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running univariate or multivariate meta-analysis and meta-regression. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2011 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of multivariate meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. Impact on application of meta-analytical approaches, certified by the use of the technique in several peer-reviewed articles by different research groups: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/myncbi/collections/public/10kxh85C77hGm5PFkch6qfQ/ |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mvmeta/index.html |
Description | Methodological work on distributed lag linear and non-linear models |
Organisation | London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | Methodological work on distributed lag linear and non-linear models |
Organisation | Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU Munich) |
Department | Department of Neurology |
Country | Germany |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Children's Hospital of Philadelphia |
Department | Center for Pediatric Clinical Effectiveness |
Country | United States |
Sector | Hospitals |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Columbia University |
Department | Department of Environmental Health Sciences |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Harvard University |
Department | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Public Health Agency of Canada |
Department | Canada Prenatal Nutrition Program |
Country | Canada |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | University of Hasselt |
Department | Centre for Environmental Sciences |
Country | Belgium |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | University of Leuven |
Department | Department of Public Health and Primary Care |
Country | Belgium |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Modelling health effects of environmental exposures |
Organisation | University of Ottawa |
Country | Canada |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Technical contribution on statistical methods and software programs, intellectual contribution to publications |
Collaborator Contribution | Leading the development of the methodological research, leading on writing up of peer-review publications |
Impact | Peer-reviewed publications in international journals and oral presentations in international congresses |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network |
Organisation | Harvard University |
Department | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I have established and currently coordinating an international collaboration of more than 80 researchers from more than 40 countries, working on a program aiming to produce epidemiological evidence on associations between environmental stressors, climate, and health (http://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/). The list of partners is long: see http://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/participants/. |
Collaborator Contribution | It is collaborative network that has produced already important research outputs (http://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/publications/). |
Impact | http://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/publications/ |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Ben-Gurion University of the Negev |
Country | Israel |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Established the collaboration with several experts and institutions for the collection of data resources and development/application of machine learning methods to reconstruct high-resolution spatio-temporal maps of environmental exposures in the UK |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision, technical assistance, expertise in modelling |
Impact | Multidisciplinary: remote sensing satellite products, re-analysis data repositories, machine learning, geospatial methods, epidemiology |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental exposures |
Organisation | European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ECMWF |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Established the collaboration with several experts and institutions for the collection of data resources and development/application of machine learning methods to reconstruct high-resolution spatio-temporal maps of environmental exposures in the UK |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision, technical assistance, expertise in modelling |
Impact | Multidisciplinary: remote sensing satellite products, re-analysis data repositories, machine learning, geospatial methods, epidemiology |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental exposures |
Organisation | European Space Agency |
Country | France |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Established the collaboration with several experts and institutions for the collection of data resources and development/application of machine learning methods to reconstruct high-resolution spatio-temporal maps of environmental exposures in the UK |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision, technical assistance, expertise in modelling |
Impact | Multidisciplinary: remote sensing satellite products, re-analysis data repositories, machine learning, geospatial methods, epidemiology |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Lazio Regional Health Service |
Country | Italy |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Established the collaboration with several experts and institutions for the collection of data resources and development/application of machine learning methods to reconstruct high-resolution spatio-temporal maps of environmental exposures in the UK |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision, technical assistance, expertise in modelling |
Impact | Multidisciplinary: remote sensing satellite products, re-analysis data repositories, machine learning, geospatial methods, epidemiology |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental exposures |
Organisation | Swiss Tropical & Public Health Institute |
Country | Switzerland |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Established the collaboration with several experts and institutions for the collection of data resources and development/application of machine learning methods to reconstruct high-resolution spatio-temporal maps of environmental exposures in the UK |
Collaborator Contribution | Data provision, technical assistance, expertise in modelling |
Impact | Multidisciplinary: remote sensing satellite products, re-analysis data repositories, machine learning, geospatial methods, epidemiology |
Start Year | 2018 |
Title | R package dlnm |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running distributed lag non-linear models. The software is freely downloadable by everybody, and it is licensed under the GNU General Public License, meaning that, under appropriate reference and the assurance that novel material is provided under the same licence terms, it can be modified and extended by other researchers. |
IP Reference | |
Protection | Copyrighted (e.g. software) |
Year Protection Granted | 2009 |
Licensed | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program has boosted the use of DLNMs among researchers in different countries, primarily (but not only) for studies on temperature and air pollution. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
Title | R package mixmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running extended meta-analytical models. The software is freely downloadable by everybody, and it is licensed under the GNU General Public License, meaning that, under appropriate reference and the assurance that novel material is provided under the same licence terms, it can be modified and extended by other researchers. |
IP Reference | |
Protection | Copyrighted (e.g. software) |
Year Protection Granted | 2019 |
Licensed | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of extended meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
Title | R package mvmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running univariate or multivariate meta-analysis and meta-regression. The software is freely downloadable by everybody, and it is licensed under the GNU General Public License, meaning that, under appropriate reference and the assurance that novel material is provided under the same licence terms, it can be modified and extended by other researchers. |
IP Reference | |
Protection | Copyrighted (e.g. software) |
Year Protection Granted | 2011 |
Licensed | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of multivariate meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
Title | R package dlnm |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running distributed lag non-linear models. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2009 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program has boosted the use of DLNMs among researchers in different countries, primarily (but not only) for studies on temperature and air pollution. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/dlnm/index.html |
Title | R package mixmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running extended meta-analytical models. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of extended meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mixmeta/index.html |
Title | R package mvmeta |
Description | The package contains functions and data examples for running univariate or multivariate meta-analysis and meta-regression. It is provided within the free software R and downloadable from internet through the R program. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2011 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | The software implementation in a free program facilitates the use of multivariate meta-analytical techniques in the research community. Also, the package, developed in parallel with the statistical framework, offer a vehicle to promote the methodology and its use among non-statisticians. |
URL | http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/mvmeta/index.html |
Description | Centre for Statistical Modelling (CSM) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Centre of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Seminars and other activities are usually attended by 50-100 researchers, PhD or MSc students |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020 |
URL | http://csm.lshtm.ac.uk/ |
Description | Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Centre of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019,2020 |
URL | https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/centres/centre-climate-change-and-planetary-health |
Description | Invited talks |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Series of invited talks and workshops in well-known research institutions and companies, such as Harvard School of Public Health, Karolinska Institute, Royal Statistical Society, The Children Hospital of Philadelphia, Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), University of Pennsylvania, Ludwig Maximilians University, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Open University, St George's University of London, IQVIA, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Emory University |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020 |