Understanding the connectivity and migration of shallow magma
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: School of Earth and Environment
Abstract
Volcanic eruptions present risks to human life and welfare, especially in rapidly growing urban areas. Detecting the rhythms and cycles of magma movement beneath a volcano is crucial to understanding their future behaviour.
Magma - the molten rock that builds the Earth's crust and feeds volcanoes - spends most of its existence as part of a 'mush' zone under the surface, comprising a complicated mixture of crystals, liquid molten rock and volcanic gases. We know from investigating patterns in the texture and composition of volcanic rocks, that fluids can move through mushes, especially in the periods before and during eruptions. This process is important because it allows the accumulation of the type of mobile magma that reaches the Earth's surface during eruptions. However, we do not know exactly what effects this movement produces at the Earth's surface where we are best positioned to detect them.
Measuring tiny movements of the Earth's surface is an important way of assessing how active a volcano is, and is widely used by volcano observatories to forecast eruptions. My research uses satellite data to make these measurements over very large areas. A particularly exciting aspect of this is that I can make displacement measurements globally and in poor and inaccessible regions where there is no or limited instrumentation installed on the ground. I and my colleagues have found an increasing number of examples of subsidence (caused by volume loss under the surface) and uplift (volume gain) occurring within a short time interval, but at a distance of many kilometres apart. These observations provide unique pieces of information about the time and distance over which magma travels underground that I will use to develop new models for interpreting displacement measurements. I will use these models to determine what displacements measured from satellites look like when magma is accumulating before a volcanic eruption.
Magma - the molten rock that builds the Earth's crust and feeds volcanoes - spends most of its existence as part of a 'mush' zone under the surface, comprising a complicated mixture of crystals, liquid molten rock and volcanic gases. We know from investigating patterns in the texture and composition of volcanic rocks, that fluids can move through mushes, especially in the periods before and during eruptions. This process is important because it allows the accumulation of the type of mobile magma that reaches the Earth's surface during eruptions. However, we do not know exactly what effects this movement produces at the Earth's surface where we are best positioned to detect them.
Measuring tiny movements of the Earth's surface is an important way of assessing how active a volcano is, and is widely used by volcano observatories to forecast eruptions. My research uses satellite data to make these measurements over very large areas. A particularly exciting aspect of this is that I can make displacement measurements globally and in poor and inaccessible regions where there is no or limited instrumentation installed on the ground. I and my colleagues have found an increasing number of examples of subsidence (caused by volume loss under the surface) and uplift (volume gain) occurring within a short time interval, but at a distance of many kilometres apart. These observations provide unique pieces of information about the time and distance over which magma travels underground that I will use to develop new models for interpreting displacement measurements. I will use these models to determine what displacements measured from satellites look like when magma is accumulating before a volcanic eruption.
Planned Impact
This project contributes to the long-term goal of increasing resilience to volcanic hazard in cities at risk from volcanic eruptions. I will achieve this by developing a framework for better interpretation of surface displacements in terms of magmatic processes that can be incorporated into decision-making. The ultimate beneficiaries of developing these approaches will be people living in areas with high levels of volcanic hazard and high risk of volcanic impacts. To achieve this, the direct impact of this work must be with the organisations responsible for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment: volcano observatories, civil protection and local authorities.
Context: There are an estimated 800 million people who today live within 100km radius of a volcano with potential for eruption. A large proportion of these people live in low to middle income countries with increased vulnerability to such geohazards. Volcanic hazards cause loss of life and livelihood, and present barriers to development including displaced populations, environmental damage, disrupted business and infrastructure. The uncertainty associated with long duration volcanic unrest also prevents investment. Forecasting the occurrence and characteristics of volcanic eruptions is essential for mitigating societal and economic impacts.
My contribution: My proposal will transform the way we interpret displacement measurements at volcanoes. This will result in more physically realistic assessments of eruptible magma in the shallow crust, and an improved understanding of which magmatic processes are detectable and useful for forecasting. Satellite data provide a powerful, lower cost and safer alternative to building and maintaining ground-based monitoring networks. Specific impacts will involve:
- Volcano observatory staff. A primary outcome of my fellowship proposal will be the practical improvement to the interpretation of monitoring data, which will have an impact on volcano monitoring practise, including in poorer countries where investment in geophysical monitoring has historically been low. In the short term the immediate beneficiaries of my proposal will be the scientists at monitoring organisations associated with my case study areas, including in New Zealand (GNS), Ecuador (Instituto Geofisico), Ethiopia (University of Addis Ababa) and Papua New Guinea (Rabaul Volcano Observatory). In the longer term, the framework for interpreting volcanic deformation produced during this fellowship will provide benefits to a wider range of monitoring organisations around the world.
- Civil protection and Disaster Risk Reduction practitioners. Advances in monitoring methodology and data interpretation at volcano observatories have a secondary impact on decision makers with responsibilities for mitigating hazard and risk. My research has the potential to provide improved interpretations in particular of volcanoes that deformation continuously or episodically during unrest.
Context: There are an estimated 800 million people who today live within 100km radius of a volcano with potential for eruption. A large proportion of these people live in low to middle income countries with increased vulnerability to such geohazards. Volcanic hazards cause loss of life and livelihood, and present barriers to development including displaced populations, environmental damage, disrupted business and infrastructure. The uncertainty associated with long duration volcanic unrest also prevents investment. Forecasting the occurrence and characteristics of volcanic eruptions is essential for mitigating societal and economic impacts.
My contribution: My proposal will transform the way we interpret displacement measurements at volcanoes. This will result in more physically realistic assessments of eruptible magma in the shallow crust, and an improved understanding of which magmatic processes are detectable and useful for forecasting. Satellite data provide a powerful, lower cost and safer alternative to building and maintaining ground-based monitoring networks. Specific impacts will involve:
- Volcano observatory staff. A primary outcome of my fellowship proposal will be the practical improvement to the interpretation of monitoring data, which will have an impact on volcano monitoring practise, including in poorer countries where investment in geophysical monitoring has historically been low. In the short term the immediate beneficiaries of my proposal will be the scientists at monitoring organisations associated with my case study areas, including in New Zealand (GNS), Ecuador (Instituto Geofisico), Ethiopia (University of Addis Ababa) and Papua New Guinea (Rabaul Volcano Observatory). In the longer term, the framework for interpreting volcanic deformation produced during this fellowship will provide benefits to a wider range of monitoring organisations around the world.
- Civil protection and Disaster Risk Reduction practitioners. Advances in monitoring methodology and data interpretation at volcano observatories have a secondary impact on decision makers with responsibilities for mitigating hazard and risk. My research has the potential to provide improved interpretations in particular of volcanoes that deformation continuously or episodically during unrest.
People |
ORCID iD |
Susanna Ebmeier (Principal Investigator / Fellow) |
Publications
Dualeh E
(2023)
Rapid pre-explosion increase in dome extrusion rate at La Soufrière, St. Vincent quantified from synthetic aperture radar backscatter
in Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Cassidy M
(2019)
Explosive Eruptions With Little Warning: Experimental Petrology and Volcano Monitoring Observations From the 2014 Eruption of Kelud, Indonesia
in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems
Boschetty F
(2022)
Insights Into Magma Storage Beneath a Frequently Erupting Arc Volcano (Villarrica, Chile) From Unsupervised Machine Learning Analysis of Mineral Compositions
in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems
Purcell V
(2022)
Nearly Three Centuries of Lava Flow Subsidence at Timanfaya, Lanzarote
in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems
Reath K
(2020)
Using Conceptual Models to Relate Multiparameter Satellite Data to Subsurface Volcanic Processes in Latin America
in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems
Liu F
(2023)
First Onset of Unrest Captured at Socompa: A Recent Geodetic Survey at Central Andean Volcanoes in Northern Chile
in Geophysical Research Letters
Lerner A
(2020)
The Prevalence and Significance of Offset Magma Reservoirs at Arc Volcanoes
in Geophysical Research Letters
Watson C
(2023)
Strategies for improving the communication of satellite-derived InSAR data for geohazards through the analysis of Twitter and online data portals
in Geoscience Communication
Shakeel A
(2022)
ALADDIn: Autoencoder-LSTM-Based Anomaly Detector of Deformation in InSAR
in IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing
Bemelmans M
(2023)
High-Resolution InSAR Reveals Localized Pre-Eruptive Deformation Inside the Crater of Agung Volcano, Indonesia
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Description | (DEEPVOLC) - Forecasting volcanic activity using deep learning |
Amount | € 1,999,495 (EUR) |
Funding ID | 866085 |
Organisation | European Commission |
Sector | Public |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Start | 06/2020 |
End | 05/2025 |
Description | GCRF Urban Disaster Risk Hub |
Amount | £17,657,279 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/S009000/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2019 |
End | 05/2024 |
Description | Making Satellite Volcano Deformation Analysis Accessible |
Amount | £127,312 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/S013970/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2019 |
End | 08/2021 |
Description | Volcanic eruption dynamics from new commercial satellite constellations |
Amount | £20,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | RGS\R2\212413 |
Organisation | The Royal Society |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2022 |
End | 02/2023 |
Description | Instituto Geofisico collaboration |
Organisation | Instituto Geofísico de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional |
Country | Ecuador |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | • Supervision of PhD student at IG • Provision of advice about interpretation of satellite radar imagery |
Collaborator Contribution | • expertise on Ecuadorian volcanoes • local and expert support of PhD student |
Impact | Disciplines involved are volcanology and geodesy. |
Start Year | 2019 |