ICAAP: Increasing Carbon Accumulation in Arctic Peatlands
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
Department Name: Geography
Abstract
Predicting future climate change is one of the biggest scientific and societal challenges facing humankind. Whist carbon emissions from human activities are the main determinant of future climate change, the response of the earth system is also extremely important. Earth system processes provide 'feedbacks' to climate change, either reinforcing upward trends in greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature (positive feedbacks) or sometimes dampening them (negative feedbacks). A crucial feedback loop is formed by the terrestrial global carbon cycle and the climate. As carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and temperature rise, carbon fixation by plants increases due to the CO2 fertilisation effect and the lengthening of the growing season at high latitudes (this is a negative feedback). But at the same time, increasing temperatures lead to increased decomposition of the carbon stored in soils and this results in more carbon dioxide being released back to the atmosphere (this is a positive feedback).
The balance of these competing processes is especially important for peatlands because they are very large carbon stores. Northern Hemisphere peatlands hold about the same amount of carbon that is stored in all the world's living vegetation including forests, so determining the response of this large carbon store to future climate change is especially critical. One hypothesis is that warming will increase decomposition rates in peatland soils to such an extent that large amounts of carbon will be released in the future. However, the vast majority of peatlands are in relatively cold and wet areas and evidence from past changes in accumulation rates suggest that for these regions, warming may lead to increased productivity that more than compensates for any increase in decay rates, leading to increased carbon sequestration overall. Furthermore, in the northernmost areas of the Arctic, there is potential for further lateral expansion of peatlands, increasing the total area over which peat accumulates. We intend to answer the question of whether changes in accumulation in Arctic peatlands plus the increased spread of peatlands in cold regions will lead to an overall increase in their carbon storage capacity.
Our approach will be to use a novel combination of data from the fossil record stored in peatlands together with satellite data to test a global model that simulates changes in both carbon accumulation rates and the extent of peatland vegetation over Arctic regions. If we can demonstrate that the model performs well in simulations of past changes, we can then confidently use it to make projections of future changes in response to warming for several hundred years into the future. We know that fluctuations in Arctic climate over the past 1000 years should have been sufficient to drive changes in peat accumulation rates and lateral spread, so we are focusing our analyses on this period. In particular, we know there were increases in temperature over the last 150-200 years and especially over the last 30-40 years. If our hypothesis that increased temperature leads to increasing accumulation and spread of Arctic peatlands is correct, we expect to see the evidence for this in the fossil record of peat accumulation and spread, and also in satellite data of vegetation change. Our previous work and our new pilot studies show that we can reconstruct accumulation rate changes and also that our proposed remote sensing techniques can detect peatland vegetation increases since the mid-1980s, so we are confident in our methodology. The model will provide estimates of northern peatland carbon storage change for different climate change scenarios over the next century and longer term to the year 2300. If we can show that there is a potential increase or even no change in carbon storage in Arctic peatlands, it will radically change our perception of the role of the Arctic terrestrial carbon store in mediating climate change.
The balance of these competing processes is especially important for peatlands because they are very large carbon stores. Northern Hemisphere peatlands hold about the same amount of carbon that is stored in all the world's living vegetation including forests, so determining the response of this large carbon store to future climate change is especially critical. One hypothesis is that warming will increase decomposition rates in peatland soils to such an extent that large amounts of carbon will be released in the future. However, the vast majority of peatlands are in relatively cold and wet areas and evidence from past changes in accumulation rates suggest that for these regions, warming may lead to increased productivity that more than compensates for any increase in decay rates, leading to increased carbon sequestration overall. Furthermore, in the northernmost areas of the Arctic, there is potential for further lateral expansion of peatlands, increasing the total area over which peat accumulates. We intend to answer the question of whether changes in accumulation in Arctic peatlands plus the increased spread of peatlands in cold regions will lead to an overall increase in their carbon storage capacity.
Our approach will be to use a novel combination of data from the fossil record stored in peatlands together with satellite data to test a global model that simulates changes in both carbon accumulation rates and the extent of peatland vegetation over Arctic regions. If we can demonstrate that the model performs well in simulations of past changes, we can then confidently use it to make projections of future changes in response to warming for several hundred years into the future. We know that fluctuations in Arctic climate over the past 1000 years should have been sufficient to drive changes in peat accumulation rates and lateral spread, so we are focusing our analyses on this period. In particular, we know there were increases in temperature over the last 150-200 years and especially over the last 30-40 years. If our hypothesis that increased temperature leads to increasing accumulation and spread of Arctic peatlands is correct, we expect to see the evidence for this in the fossil record of peat accumulation and spread, and also in satellite data of vegetation change. Our previous work and our new pilot studies show that we can reconstruct accumulation rate changes and also that our proposed remote sensing techniques can detect peatland vegetation increases since the mid-1980s, so we are confident in our methodology. The model will provide estimates of northern peatland carbon storage change for different climate change scenarios over the next century and longer term to the year 2300. If we can show that there is a potential increase or even no change in carbon storage in Arctic peatlands, it will radically change our perception of the role of the Arctic terrestrial carbon store in mediating climate change.
Planned Impact
The results of the proposed project will provide an answer to the question of whether Arctic peatlands are accumulating carbon faster now than they were under previously colder climate conditions and provide projections of the likely change in carbon storage under future warmer climates. If we demonstrate that this is the case, we will radically change our understanding of the role of Arctic ecosystems in mediating global warming and provide evidence for a new ecosystem service of these unique and valuable habitats. Even if our hypotheses are not correct, the results of our project will be valuable in providing further information on the overall role of Arctic peatlands in the carbon cycle.
Therefore, our research has potential benefits for:
- The education sector and the wider public;
A deeper understanding of the possible effects of climate change on high latitude ecosystems is something that we need to communicate to the wider public and especially to educators so they can have a comprehensive picture of the likely changes in Arctic ecosystems and transmit it to their students, who will make the society of the future. A better understanding of the complexities of the response of the Arctic to climate change will allow the public to make better future choices and change their behaviour in order to mitigate climate change.
- The Inuit or First Nation populations in Canada and the Sami people in Finland/Russia.
The project will provide these populations with information on how the ecosystems they live in will respond to climatic changes. People who live near the study sites and that have traditionally lived in close proximity to these ecosystems will benefit by having access to a wide range of information on the value of their land in terms of carbon budgets, how their land is involved in the global carbon cycle and how their ecosystem is responding to climate change. This will allow them to make better choices of how they relate to their environment and adapt to the changes in the ecosystems.
- Policy makers and land managers involved in national and international carbon budgeting and management of international peatland resources for both carbon management and biodiversity conservation purposes.
The outcomes of the project have implications for peatland management and carbon dynamics throughout the northern hemisphere, especially in assessing future impacts of climate on peatland distribution and functioning, including the development of carbon management policy and peatland management practice. National and international policy and peatland management and adaptation need to be informed by accurate assessments of the likely trajectory of peatland carbon under warming, especially now that wetland carbon sequestration and emissions can be included in national greenhouse gas inventories as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines (IPCC, 2014).
In particular, we identify the International Union for the conservation of Nature (IUCN), UK Environment Agency, Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Environment DG of the European Commission as potential beneficiaries. These policy makers and/or peatland managers will benefit from a more comprehensive picture of the role of Arctic peatlands. The output of the project will be important for these environmental agencies that currently are unaware that Arctic ecosystems may respond in unexpected ways to climate change. This will allow a better management of this natural resource.
IPCC, 2014. 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands, in: Hiraishi, T., Krug, T., Tanabe, K., Srivastava, N., Baasansuren, J., Fukuda, M. and Troxler, T.G. (eds) (Ed.), Switzerland.
Therefore, our research has potential benefits for:
- The education sector and the wider public;
A deeper understanding of the possible effects of climate change on high latitude ecosystems is something that we need to communicate to the wider public and especially to educators so they can have a comprehensive picture of the likely changes in Arctic ecosystems and transmit it to their students, who will make the society of the future. A better understanding of the complexities of the response of the Arctic to climate change will allow the public to make better future choices and change their behaviour in order to mitigate climate change.
- The Inuit or First Nation populations in Canada and the Sami people in Finland/Russia.
The project will provide these populations with information on how the ecosystems they live in will respond to climatic changes. People who live near the study sites and that have traditionally lived in close proximity to these ecosystems will benefit by having access to a wide range of information on the value of their land in terms of carbon budgets, how their land is involved in the global carbon cycle and how their ecosystem is responding to climate change. This will allow them to make better choices of how they relate to their environment and adapt to the changes in the ecosystems.
- Policy makers and land managers involved in national and international carbon budgeting and management of international peatland resources for both carbon management and biodiversity conservation purposes.
The outcomes of the project have implications for peatland management and carbon dynamics throughout the northern hemisphere, especially in assessing future impacts of climate on peatland distribution and functioning, including the development of carbon management policy and peatland management practice. National and international policy and peatland management and adaptation need to be informed by accurate assessments of the likely trajectory of peatland carbon under warming, especially now that wetland carbon sequestration and emissions can be included in national greenhouse gas inventories as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines (IPCC, 2014).
In particular, we identify the International Union for the conservation of Nature (IUCN), UK Environment Agency, Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Environment DG of the European Commission as potential beneficiaries. These policy makers and/or peatland managers will benefit from a more comprehensive picture of the role of Arctic peatlands. The output of the project will be important for these environmental agencies that currently are unaware that Arctic ecosystems may respond in unexpected ways to climate change. This will allow a better management of this natural resource.
IPCC, 2014. 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands, in: Hiraishi, T., Krug, T., Tanabe, K., Srivastava, N., Baasansuren, J., Fukuda, M. and Troxler, T.G. (eds) (Ed.), Switzerland.
Organisations
- UNIVERSITY OF EXETER (Lead Research Organisation)
- QUEEN'S UNIVERSITY BELFAST (Collaboration)
- University of Quebec at Montreal (Collaboration, Project Partner)
- University of Hawai'i at Manoa (Collaboration)
- Florida Atlantic University (Collaboration)
- University of Helsinki (Collaboration, Project Partner)
- University of Quebec at Trois-Rivieres (Collaboration)
- University of Bern (Project Partner)
- Max Planck Institutes (Project Partner)
- University of Montreal (Project Partner)
- University of Leeds (Project Partner)
- University of Hawaii at Manoa (Project Partner)
- Kirovsk Polar-Alpine Botanical Garden (Project Partner)
Publications
Zhang H
(2020)
Recent Changes in Peatland Testate Amoeba Functional Traits and Hydrology Within a Replicated Site Network in Northwestern Québec, Canada
in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
Sim T
(2021)
Divergent responses of permafrost peatlands to recent climate change
in Environmental Research Letters
Sim T
(2021)
Ecology of peatland testate amoebae in Svalbard and the development of transfer functions for reconstructing past water-table depth and pH
in Ecological Indicators
Qiu C
(2022)
A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands
in One Earth
Piilo S
(2019)
Recent peat and carbon accumulation following the Little Ice Age in northwestern Québec, Canada
in Environmental Research Letters
Loisel J
(2020)
Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink
in Nature Climate Change
Loisel J
(2021)
Author Correction: Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink
in Nature Climate Change
Juselius T
(2022)
Newly initiated carbon stock, organic soil accumulation patterns and main driving factors in the High Arctic Svalbard, Norway.
in Scientific reports
Crichton KA
(2022)
Seasonal climate drivers of peak NDVI in a series of Arctic peatlands.
in The Science of the total environment
Chadburn S
(2022)
A new approach to simulate peat accumulation, degradation and stability in a global land surface scheme (JULES vn5.8_accumulate_soil) for northern and temperate peatlands
in Geoscientific Model Development
Description | The laboratory work, even though it has been heavily impacted by Covid-19, has started to yield some results - it seems like we can detect recent expansion of Arctic peatlands in Svalvard. This is only a preliminary result - too early to say if this is the case in all project field sites. The remote sensing work has also yielded some preliminary results, including the main drivers of the "greening" seen in some of the peatland sites. |
Exploitation Route | Once we have the data, the outcomes can be used to calibrate land surface models and make predictions about the future of Arctic peatlands. |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | I have presented the findings of ICAAP at the COP26 in Glasgow, influencing policy and international agreements. |
First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
Sector | Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
Description | COP26 Invited contributions |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Impact | COP26 talks were accessed by practicioners, scientists and the general public, as well as the politicians involved in the decision making process, during the two weeks of the duration of the Conference of the Parties, but also remained available afterwards. The Peatland Pavilion in particular, has a virtual presence and continues to be accessible. The importance of having a Peatland Pavilion for the first time at a Conference of the Parties cannot be underestimated in terms of peatland management and conservation. |
URL | https://www.iucn-uk-peatlandprogramme.org/news/peatland-pavilion-unfccc-cop26-online-registration-op... |
Description | Contributing author to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
URL | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/ |
Description | Undergraduate course GEO3232 Peatland Ecosystems - delineating fate of peatlands, including Arctic peatlands, in the future |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | Increased awareness of the importance of peatlands and effects of warming in the Arctic for the University of Exeter Geography student cohort. |
Description | Collaboration with Dr. David Beilman, University of Hawaii at Manoa, US |
Organisation | University of Hawai'i at Manoa |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | We will collaborate with Dr Beilman in a publication putting together a Svalbard-wide database of ecological changes. |
Collaborator Contribution | Dr Beilman served as a "guide" during the field season at Svalbard. |
Impact | Preparation of a publication in a high impact journal. |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Collaboration with Prof. Graeme Swindles at Queens, Belfast |
Organisation | Queen's University Belfast |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | We have provided logistic support for retrieving material from Svalbard. We have provided peat cores for analysis. |
Collaborator Contribution | Prof. Graeme will co-supervise a MRes student at the University of Exeter who will be working on examining the local hydrological conditions necessary for peat expansion in the Arctic. |
Impact | There are not yet any outputs. |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Collaboration with Prof. Michelle Garneau, UQAM, Canada |
Organisation | University of Quebec at Montreal |
Country | Canada |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | NA. |
Collaborator Contribution | Prof. Garneau will provide logistic support for field work in Arctic Canada. She has made an application in our behalf to the Canadian Authorities and will provide logistics, including helicopter time, etc. when we are in Bylot Island. Additionally, she will be also supporting our field work in Salluit Research Station. |
Impact | No outputs yet. |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Collaboration with Prof. Michelle Garneau, UQAM, Canada |
Organisation | University of Quebec at Montreal |
Country | Canada |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | NA. |
Collaborator Contribution | Prof. Garneau will provide logistic support for field work in Arctic Canada. She has made an application in our behalf to the Canadian Authorities and will provide logistics, including helicopter time, etc. when we are in Bylot Island. Additionally, she will be also supporting our field work in Salluit Research Station. |
Impact | No outputs yet. |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Collaboration with Prof. Xavier Comas, of the Department of Geosciences, Florida Atlantic University, US |
Organisation | Florida Atlantic University |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The PI involved Xavier Comas during the field campaign in Svalbard, in order to have ground penetrating radar (GPR) data for the field sites. Prof. Comas received funding from his University to participate in the campaign. |
Collaborator Contribution | Xavier Comas performed GPR on all the Southern sites at Svalbard during the July 2019 campaign for ICAAP. |
Impact | Abstract submitted to the 8th International Conference on Ground Penetrating Radar https://gpr2020.csmspace.com/ |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Collaborations with Dr. Minna Valiranta, U. Helsinki, Finland |
Organisation | University of Helsinki |
Country | Finland |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Discussion of findings on Arctic carbon cycling. |
Collaborator Contribution | Additional analysis of peat cores from European Arctic. Field support, including financial support for our field campaign in Lapland. |
Impact | Not outputs yet. |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Université du Quebec à Trois-Rivieres - Bylot |
Organisation | University of Quebec at Trois-Rivieres |
Country | Canada |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | We have provided expertise on Arctic peatland dynamics and carbon cycling. |
Collaborator Contribution | They have provided logistic support and local guidance while we were at Bylot |
Impact | Co-supervision of master student and examination of a PhD student working on Arctic peatlands in Bylot. |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | Invited seminar at the Geography Department of the National University of Singapore |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | About 70 people attended a seminar online at NUS. There were a lot of interest in the results of the Millipeat project and also in the ICAAP project that is still ongoing. A lot of questions followed the talk, and interesting contacts were made. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://nus-sg.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZIkf-itqjIqHtKRtuWpaSlRqBAVK6BD087K/success?user_id=lbqrK6P... |
Description | Invited talk - Exeter College |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Gallego-Sala A. 2021. Climate Change solutions: not just a bog-standard approach. Invited talk at Exeter College to high school students. 20 October 2021. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Invited talk - University of Leeds |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Sim et al., 2022. Increased Carbon Accumulation in Arctic Peatlands. Invited talk to the River Basin Management and Processes research group at the University of Leeds. November 2022. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Invited talk - Workshop GSI (UoE) and Tsinghua University |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Gallego-Sala A. 2021. The role of peatlands as Nature-Based Solutions in achieving net zero. Invited talk at the Exeter and Tsinghua Workshop on 'How to Achieve and Sustain Net Zero Emissions'. A joint workshop between the Department of Earth System Science (DESS), Tsinghua University and the Global Systems Institute (GSI), University of Exeter. 16 November 2021. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Invited talk at Northeast Normal University, Changchung, China, June 2019 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Invited talk at Northeast Normal University, Changchung, China, June 2019. There were mainly undergraduate and postgraduate students, together with more senior academics. There were lots of questions and discussion afterwards. It has led to new collaborations with colleagues in China. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Invited talk at Plymouth University |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | An invited talk at Plymouth University - covering both results of the "Peatlands and the global Carbon cycle during the past millennium: a global assessment using observations and models" project and the new ICAAP project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Keynote at the Quaternary Research Association Annual Meeting in Leeds, January 2020 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | A keynote at the Quaternary Research Association Annual Meeting. The talk was about the peatland carbon sink (results from the Peatlands and the global Carbon cycle during the past millennium: a global assessment using observations and models project were presented) but also about what questions remain unanswered (ICAAP project). The audience was made up of scientists, but also members of the public and practitioners. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://qraleeds2020.com/ |
Description | Seminar - Queen's University Belfast |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Invited seminar given at the School of Geography, Archaeology & Palaeoecology at Queen's University, Belfast. I established new networks with colleagues at this institution. The seminar extended beyond the planned time because there were many questions and interest in the topic. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Seminar at Climate Summer School (Switzerland) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Gallego-Sala A. 2021. The role of peatlands in the global carbon cycle. Invited seminar at the 19th Swiss Climate Summer School, Ascona, Switzerland. 2 September 2021. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Talk at the Arctic Research Station Open Day at the British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge on Thursday 21st February |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited talk at the BAS Arctic Research Station Open Day on Thursday 21st February 2019 to describe the field work related to ICAAP. Discussion and Q&As followed. An interview of the PI for a BBC radio programme was also carried out as part of the day. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Video on the global carbon cycle for A-level students |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | An educational video "The short-term carbon cycle" has been made by Time for Geography (https://timeforgeography.co.uk/) in which Angela Gallego-Sala was one of the writers and presented peatland-related content (https://timeforgeography.co.uk/videos_list/carbon-cycle/short-term-carbon-cycle/). The video has only just been released, so no impact has been recorded. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://timeforgeography.co.uk/videos_list/carbon-cycle/short-term-carbon-cycle/ |