Volcanic plume understanding and forecasting: Integrating remote-sensing, in-situ observations and models (V-PLUS)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Oxford
Department Name: Earth Sciences
Abstract
The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grimsvötn eruptions in Iceland were stark reminders that society is increasingly vulnerable to volcanic hazards. Since 2012, volcanic eruptions are listed in the UK National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies, recognising the high potential for societal disruption and economic loss. Volcano observatories and regulatory bodies, including the nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs), use a variety of tools and data to mitigate the impacts of eruptions, and ensure aviation safety. Some of the most important tools are atmospheric models that simulate the atmospheric transport and removal of volcanic plume constituents and form the backbone of the regulatory response. The accuracy of these model predictions relies on:
i) accurate input data, mainly derived from ground-based measurements and satellites;
ii) the accuracy of the model representation of volcanic plume transport and plume processes.
The overarching aims of V-PLUS are to transform our understanding of volcanic plumes and deliver methods and tools that enhance monitoring and forecasting capabilities in the UK and beyond. Our project partners and subcontractor include the Icelandic Met Office, the UK Met Office and Etna volcano observatory, which ensures that our new research breakthroughs will be used operationally by VAACs and volcano observatories. This will enhance our capabilities to mitigate the economic and societal hazards posed by volcanic eruptions.
To achieve our aims, V-PLUS will exploit data from a recently launched satellite sensor called TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The exceptional spectral and spatial resolution of TROPOMI, 12 times better than the previous generation of instruments, is for the first time comparable to ground-based measurements, and will be a game-changer in volcanology, providing an unprecedented opportunity to characterise and track volcanic plumes. V-PLUS will combine this new data with ground-based and other satellite data, as well as atmospheric modelling to study volcanic plumes with unprecedented fidelity. To improve our ability to measure volcanic ash from satellite imagery we will conduct experiments on volcanoes, directly sampling volcanic ash during volcanic explosions using unmanned aerial vehicles, and test numerical models of volcanic activity.
Aside from volcanic ash hazards, toxic volcanic sulphur species can degrade air quality, negatively affect human health, and potentially increase the cost of ownership of aircraft engines due to an increase in maintenance cycles. However, there is at present extremely limited knowledge of exposure thresholds and durations at which negative human health effects occur and the functioning of aircraft engines is compromised. While none of the VAACs are currently required to forecast the dispersion of volcanic sulphur, there is increasing recognition of the potential hazards from volcanic gases and their chemical conversion products. Thus, the requirement for VAACs could change in future. The chemical evolution of gases and aerosol particles controls the health and climatic impact of eruptions, and we will study this chemical evolution through experiments in accessible volcanic gas plumes.
In summary, the new atmospheric models and tools created by the V-PLUS will be rigorously tested using case study eruptions and translated into tools for direct use by VAACs and volcano observatories. Therefore, the V-PLUS project will have societal and economic benefits primarily through creating enhanced national and international capability to predict the dispersion of volcanic ash and gas plumes including their impacts on air quality, human health, climate and aviation.
i) accurate input data, mainly derived from ground-based measurements and satellites;
ii) the accuracy of the model representation of volcanic plume transport and plume processes.
The overarching aims of V-PLUS are to transform our understanding of volcanic plumes and deliver methods and tools that enhance monitoring and forecasting capabilities in the UK and beyond. Our project partners and subcontractor include the Icelandic Met Office, the UK Met Office and Etna volcano observatory, which ensures that our new research breakthroughs will be used operationally by VAACs and volcano observatories. This will enhance our capabilities to mitigate the economic and societal hazards posed by volcanic eruptions.
To achieve our aims, V-PLUS will exploit data from a recently launched satellite sensor called TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The exceptional spectral and spatial resolution of TROPOMI, 12 times better than the previous generation of instruments, is for the first time comparable to ground-based measurements, and will be a game-changer in volcanology, providing an unprecedented opportunity to characterise and track volcanic plumes. V-PLUS will combine this new data with ground-based and other satellite data, as well as atmospheric modelling to study volcanic plumes with unprecedented fidelity. To improve our ability to measure volcanic ash from satellite imagery we will conduct experiments on volcanoes, directly sampling volcanic ash during volcanic explosions using unmanned aerial vehicles, and test numerical models of volcanic activity.
Aside from volcanic ash hazards, toxic volcanic sulphur species can degrade air quality, negatively affect human health, and potentially increase the cost of ownership of aircraft engines due to an increase in maintenance cycles. However, there is at present extremely limited knowledge of exposure thresholds and durations at which negative human health effects occur and the functioning of aircraft engines is compromised. While none of the VAACs are currently required to forecast the dispersion of volcanic sulphur, there is increasing recognition of the potential hazards from volcanic gases and their chemical conversion products. Thus, the requirement for VAACs could change in future. The chemical evolution of gases and aerosol particles controls the health and climatic impact of eruptions, and we will study this chemical evolution through experiments in accessible volcanic gas plumes.
In summary, the new atmospheric models and tools created by the V-PLUS will be rigorously tested using case study eruptions and translated into tools for direct use by VAACs and volcano observatories. Therefore, the V-PLUS project will have societal and economic benefits primarily through creating enhanced national and international capability to predict the dispersion of volcanic ash and gas plumes including their impacts on air quality, human health, climate and aviation.
Planned Impact
Given the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) is hosted by the Met Office in Exeter, the UK has a central role in understanding and forecasting volcanic plumes. V-PLUS will have societal and economic impacts through the following key deliverables:
(i) an improved understanding of volcanic plumes and their impacts on air quality, aviation, human health, the environment, and climate, and
(ii) enhanced monitoring capabilities and national capability to forecast volcanic ash and gas dispersion enabled due to the exploitation of newly-available satellite data (such as the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument) and the testing and refinement of dispersion and aerosol-chemistry-climate models against a wide range of measurements.
In V-PLUS we are actively engaged with the Met Office at every stage of the project, so that the research methods and outcomes are appropriately tailored to allow an efficient pull through to operations. The direct involvement of the Met Office will also allow us to anticipate at an early stage how our findings, data and methods may impact their current practices of forecasting volcanic plume dispersion and assimilating satellite data into their forecasts. Several team members have a proven track-record of creating impact: they are involvement in hazards assessments at volcano observatories, and they advise UK Government on the risks and effects of volcanic eruptions.
We have identified three potential pathways to impact:
1. Impact on national capabilities to forecast volcanic plume dispersion and chemical evolution at the Met Office/London VAAC. The tested and refined modelling capacities produced in V-PLUS can improve the Met Office/London VAAC capabilities for its central role of forecasting volcanic ash concentrations (needed to ensure aviation safety) by delivering improved models and ways to derive eruption source terms, a critical input. Several VAACs forecast the dispersion of volcanic sulphur in order to inform their ash forecasts. This combined with the increasing recognition of the potential hazards from volcanic gases and their chemical conversion products means volcanic gas dispersal forecasting is the subject of ongoing investigation by the International Civil Aviation Organization. The 2014-15 Holuhraun eruption also highlighted a UK requirement for such capability. The V-PLUS deliverables mean that the Met Office would have a well-tested and validated system to carry out near-real time forecasting of gas-rich volcanic plumes and their potential impacts to inform Government and aviation.
2. Impact on understanding and capabilities to forecast hazards from volcanic eruptions to the UK. Since 2012, volcanic eruptions are listed on the UK National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. In the UK, civil contingency planning and response to volcanic hazards is based on scientific evidence of the potential impacts of a volcanic eruption. In V-PLUS we will carry out impact assessments for both explosive multi-phase eruptions as well as long-lasting, gas-rich Icelandic eruptions based on the refined modelling tools created. Provision of and output from these models can have an impact on decision-making and the level of preparedness in the event of a volcanic crisis affecting the UK or UK overseas territories.
3. Impact on volcano monitoring practices. V-PLUS aims to impact on practices at volcano observatories who are charged with monitoring volcanic activity using satellite- and ground-based remote sensing. In V-PLUS, we will assess the effect of utilising new models and methods to forecast volcanic plume dispersion on practices at the London VAAC, which will benefit other VAACs and volcano observatories worldwide. For instance, we expect the automated method to derive mass fluxes and plume heights we develop in V-PLUS to create enhanced capabilities at volcano observatories around the world including ODA-listed countries (e.g. Nicaragua).
(i) an improved understanding of volcanic plumes and their impacts on air quality, aviation, human health, the environment, and climate, and
(ii) enhanced monitoring capabilities and national capability to forecast volcanic ash and gas dispersion enabled due to the exploitation of newly-available satellite data (such as the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument) and the testing and refinement of dispersion and aerosol-chemistry-climate models against a wide range of measurements.
In V-PLUS we are actively engaged with the Met Office at every stage of the project, so that the research methods and outcomes are appropriately tailored to allow an efficient pull through to operations. The direct involvement of the Met Office will also allow us to anticipate at an early stage how our findings, data and methods may impact their current practices of forecasting volcanic plume dispersion and assimilating satellite data into their forecasts. Several team members have a proven track-record of creating impact: they are involvement in hazards assessments at volcano observatories, and they advise UK Government on the risks and effects of volcanic eruptions.
We have identified three potential pathways to impact:
1. Impact on national capabilities to forecast volcanic plume dispersion and chemical evolution at the Met Office/London VAAC. The tested and refined modelling capacities produced in V-PLUS can improve the Met Office/London VAAC capabilities for its central role of forecasting volcanic ash concentrations (needed to ensure aviation safety) by delivering improved models and ways to derive eruption source terms, a critical input. Several VAACs forecast the dispersion of volcanic sulphur in order to inform their ash forecasts. This combined with the increasing recognition of the potential hazards from volcanic gases and their chemical conversion products means volcanic gas dispersal forecasting is the subject of ongoing investigation by the International Civil Aviation Organization. The 2014-15 Holuhraun eruption also highlighted a UK requirement for such capability. The V-PLUS deliverables mean that the Met Office would have a well-tested and validated system to carry out near-real time forecasting of gas-rich volcanic plumes and their potential impacts to inform Government and aviation.
2. Impact on understanding and capabilities to forecast hazards from volcanic eruptions to the UK. Since 2012, volcanic eruptions are listed on the UK National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. In the UK, civil contingency planning and response to volcanic hazards is based on scientific evidence of the potential impacts of a volcanic eruption. In V-PLUS we will carry out impact assessments for both explosive multi-phase eruptions as well as long-lasting, gas-rich Icelandic eruptions based on the refined modelling tools created. Provision of and output from these models can have an impact on decision-making and the level of preparedness in the event of a volcanic crisis affecting the UK or UK overseas territories.
3. Impact on volcano monitoring practices. V-PLUS aims to impact on practices at volcano observatories who are charged with monitoring volcanic activity using satellite- and ground-based remote sensing. In V-PLUS, we will assess the effect of utilising new models and methods to forecast volcanic plume dispersion on practices at the London VAAC, which will benefit other VAACs and volcano observatories worldwide. For instance, we expect the automated method to derive mass fluxes and plume heights we develop in V-PLUS to create enhanced capabilities at volcano observatories around the world including ODA-listed countries (e.g. Nicaragua).
Organisations
Publications
Aubry T
(2023)
New Insights Into the Relationship Between Mass Eruption Rate and Volcanic Column Height Based On the IVESPA Data Set
in Geophysical Research Letters
Bugliaro L
(2022)
VADUGS: a neural network for the remote sensing of volcanic ash with MSG/SEVIRI trained with synthetic thermal satellite observations simulated with a radiative transfer model
in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
De Leeuw J
(2021)
The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption - Part 1: Dispersion model simulations and satellite retrievals of volcanic sulfur dioxide
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Desservettaz M
(2019)
Air Quality Impacts of Smoke from Hazard Reduction Burns and Domestic Wood Heating in Western Sydney
in Atmosphere
Harvey N
(2022)
Quantifying the impact of meteorological uncertainty on emission estimates and the risk to aviation using source inversion for the Raikoke 2019 eruption
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Ilyinskaya E
(2021)
Rapid metal pollutant deposition from the volcanic plume of Kilauea, Hawai'i
in Communications Earth & Environment
Ilyinskaya E
(2021)
Publisher Correction: Rapid metal pollutant deposition from the volcanic plume of Kilauea, Hawai'i
in Communications Earth & Environment
Koukouli M
(2022)
Volcanic SO<sub>2</sub> layer height by TROPOMI/S5P: evaluation against IASI/MetOp and CALIOP/CALIPSO observations
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Lau S
(2024)
Characterizing Volcanic Ash Density and Its Implications on Settling Dynamics
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Mason E
(2021)
Publisher Correction: Volatile metal emissions from volcanic degassing and lava-seawater interactions at Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i
in Communications Earth & Environment
Mason E
(2021)
Volatile metal emissions from volcanic degassing and lava-seawater interactions at Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i
in Communications Earth & Environment
Osborne M
(2022)
The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption - Part 2: Particle-phase dispersion and concurrent wildfire smoke emissions
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Prata A
(2022)
Uncertainty-bounded estimates of ash cloud properties using the ORAC algorithm: application to the 2019 Raikoke eruption
in Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
Smekens J
(2023)
Quantification of gas, ash, and sulphate aerosols in volcanic plumes from open path Fourier transform infrared (OP-FTIR) emission measurements at Stromboli volcano, Italy
in Frontiers in Earth Science
Taylor I
(2023)
A satellite chronology of plumes from the April 2021 eruption of La Soufrière, St Vincent
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Whitty R
(2020)
Spatial and Temporal Variations in SO2 and PM2.5 Levels Around Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i During 2007-2018
in Frontiers in Earth Science
Description | We have developed a new method to study aqueous aerosol particles and ash as well as gases in mildly explosive volcanic plumes with high frequency using IR spectroscopy. This allows us to understand more about the near-source properties of these plumes and their potential impacts. |
Exploitation Route | With further development this new technique might be suitable for wider volcano monitoring |
Sectors | Aerospace Defence and Marine Environment |
Description | Conversations started with Rolls Royce and the Met Office |
First Year Of Impact | 2019 |
Sector | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Environment,Transport |
Impact Types | Societal Economic |
Description | Consultant Cope Disaster Campions 'Volcanoes' empowering children in disaster risk reduction |
Geographic Reach | Australia |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Impact | Better Natural Hazards preparedness for children |
URL | https://cope-disaster-champions.com/ |
Title | Animations of images produced with data from the Advanced Baseline Instrument (ABI) showing plumes from the April 2021 La Soufrière eruption |
Description | A series of explosive eruptions began at La Soufrière, on St Vincent, on 9th April 2021, with the last event occurring on 22nd April. The eruption was observed by the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite East (GOES-East) platform. The instrument measures in 16 channels in the visible, near-infrared and infrared, across a large area which includes the Carribean. During the La Soufrière eruption, the ABI instrument made measurements for the full disc every 10-minutes, and for part of the eruption, a mesoscale region was moved over the volcano, providing data every minute. In this study, data from this satellite instrument has been used to construct four images: (a) a true colour image, (b) a false colour image (12.3 - 10.3 µm, 11.2 - 8.4 µm and 10.3 µm channels assigned to red, green and blue respectively), (c) 10.3 - 11.2 µm brightness temperature difference, and (d) 11.2 - 12.3 µm brightness temperature difference. These have been used to study the plumes produced during the April 2021 eruption, allowing the identification of at least 35 explosive events. In this repository, an animation of the created images has been provided for each of the explosive events identified. The animation names are constructed to indicate the volcano (LaSoufriere), the instrument (ABI), the type of data (i.e. full disc or meso), the event number, the start date/time (yyyymmddhhmm) and the end date/time (yyyymmddhhmm). For example: 'LaSoufriere_ABI_full_event01_202104091250_202104091740.mp4' Note that the start and end times indicate the start time of measurement period and some adjustment is needed to ascertain the time over the volcano for the full disc (~ +243 seconds). This has been accounted for in the title shown in each frame of the full disc animations. Also note that two animations are provided for event 5 as measurements from the mesoscale region began during this period. We are grateful to the NOAA Big Data Program through which the GOES-16 data are available. These animations accompany a paper: Taylor, I.A., Grainger, R.G., Prata, A.T., Proud, S,R, Mather, T.A., Pyle, D.M.: A satellite chronology of plumes from the April 2021 eruption of La Soufrière, St Vincent, Accepted for publication in Atmospheric, Chemistry and Physics. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:ca4e7a94-37c6-4d5f-b94a-1f287e661f8a |
Description | 'A life volcanic' A blog contributed as part of marking the 40th anniversary of the admission of women to St John's College, Cambridge |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | A life volcanic' A blog contributed as part of marking the 40th anniversary of the admission of women to St John's College, Cambridge |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://johnian.joh.cam.ac.uk/news/a-life-volcanic/ |
Description | BBC Radio 4 Infinite Monkey Cage |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | I participated on the panel of The Infinite Monkey Cage episode 'Supervolcanoes' with Brian Cox, Robin Ince, comedian Rachel Parris and Chris Jackson on BBC Radio 4. (Broadcast July 2023) - it is also a podcast |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
URL | https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001ng4w |
Description | CEED University of Oslo key note at end of grant wrap-up meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Celebrating the end of their grant |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Darwin college lecture series lecture |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Evening talk as part of a high profile series |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WD7EmV0FI0M |
Description | Department seminar University of Oslo |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Research seminar to atmospheric sciences department |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Describing science and getting scientifically accurate nail art YouTube channel Nailing Science | Hacking a vacuum cleaner to study volcanoes! |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I participated in a YouTube video describing my science while having nail art done depicting it. Over 1k viewers in the first 2 hours. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJEOhsp45vk&feature=youtu.be |
Description | Interview on BBC News |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Two interviews about the ongoing activity in Iceland and advising the science editor re background reports and graphics (15 January and 8 February) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
Description | Invited keynote speaker vEGU assembly, April 2021 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited conference talk |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | NHK World Direct Talk |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Filmed a short profile for the Japan international channel |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/2058902/ |
Description | OUS Manchester |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | OUS Manchester |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Sedgwick Club, the University of Cambridge's undergraduate Earth Sciences society |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Undergraduate students |
Results and Impact | Talk to Cambridge undergraduate geology society |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | The Conversation piece about Icelandic volcanic activity |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | David Pyle and myself were asked to write a blog about the building activity in the Reykjanes peninsula in south-west Iceland |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
URL | https://theconversation.com/iceland-on-high-alert-for-volcanic-eruption-what-we-know-so-far-217605 |
Description | The Royal Philosophical Society of Glasgow |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | First digital presentation in its 218 years of existence |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | University of Cardiff evening lecture series in the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Evening lecture |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | University of Southern Florida department seminar, remotely |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | University of Southern Florida department seminar, remotely |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Virtual MoD DST lecture series |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Part of the defence science and technology lecture series |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |