Satellite Radiation Risk Forecasts (Sat-Risk)
Lead Research Organisation:
British Antarctic Survey
Department Name: Science Programmes
Abstract
Summary
Our society relies on satellites more than ever before, from the use of mobile phones to broadcasting and Earth observation. The use of GPS navigation, positioning and timing signals has grown considerably and we now use these signals in ways that were never foreseen, for example in agriculture and stock market trading. The modern world has also become more connected and built up dependencies that are no longer clearly identifiable. It is therefore essential that we take every reasonable precaution to ensure that satellites are protected.
Space Weather poses one of the most important threats to satellites in orbit, primarily through radiation exposure. Radiation exposure can increase within a few minutes, by a ten thousand fold or more, and remain high for days, even months. For example, in 2003 during a large space weather event known as the Halloween storm radiation levels were highly disturbed and approximately 10% of the entire satellite fleet were affected by satellite anomalies (malfunctions) leading to service interruption and in one case the complete loss of a scientific satellite costing $640 million (Cannon et al., 2013).
In 2012 the UK Government recognised the importance of space weather as a low frequency high impact event and included it on the National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, 2012). This was revised in 2017 with a recommendation for more investment into forecasting as a means of mitigating the impact. More recent research suggests that with current forecasting capability the loss of gross domestic product to the UK would be around £2.9 billion but with more investment in enhanced forecasting this could be reduced to £0.9 billion (Oughton et al., 2019). The purpose of this proposal is to provide enhanced forecasting to help reduce the impact on satellites. Currently there are over 2,200 operational satellites in orbit (December 2019).
This proposal brings together scientists from across the UK with stakeholders from the UK Met Office. The goal is to develop a real-time system to forecast radiation exposure to satellites for a range of different orbits, and quantify the risk of damage or degradation. We will do this by taking research models of the Earth's radiation belts - regions of high energy electrons and protons trapped by the external geomagnetic field and which circulate around the Earth - and turn them into operational forecasting models. The models will use real-time data from ground and space to forecast radiation exposure up to 24 hours ahead for different orbits, including geostationary orbit, low Earth orbit and medium Earth orbit. It will also include data on radiation storms and cosmic rays. The particle radiation levels will then be used to calculate the damaging radiation effects on electronic components and solar arrays and compared to design guidelines to assess the risk of damage.
The project will also include four research elements which are specifically targeted at reducing the uncertainty in the forecasts.
The project will deliver a world leading forecasting capability for the Met Office that will help satellite operators take mitigating action, help satellite designers develop more resilient design and space insurance reduce the risk of loss. It will also support the growth of the satellite industry and the UK National Risk Register.
1. Cannon, P, S., et al. (2013), Extreme Space Weather: Impacts on Engineered Systems and Infrastructure, Royal Academy of Engineering, London, SW1A 2WH.
2. Cabinet Office, (2012), National risk register of civil emergencies, Whitehall, London SW1A 2WH, www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk
3. Oughton et al., (2019), A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom, Risk Analysis, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13229
Our society relies on satellites more than ever before, from the use of mobile phones to broadcasting and Earth observation. The use of GPS navigation, positioning and timing signals has grown considerably and we now use these signals in ways that were never foreseen, for example in agriculture and stock market trading. The modern world has also become more connected and built up dependencies that are no longer clearly identifiable. It is therefore essential that we take every reasonable precaution to ensure that satellites are protected.
Space Weather poses one of the most important threats to satellites in orbit, primarily through radiation exposure. Radiation exposure can increase within a few minutes, by a ten thousand fold or more, and remain high for days, even months. For example, in 2003 during a large space weather event known as the Halloween storm radiation levels were highly disturbed and approximately 10% of the entire satellite fleet were affected by satellite anomalies (malfunctions) leading to service interruption and in one case the complete loss of a scientific satellite costing $640 million (Cannon et al., 2013).
In 2012 the UK Government recognised the importance of space weather as a low frequency high impact event and included it on the National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, 2012). This was revised in 2017 with a recommendation for more investment into forecasting as a means of mitigating the impact. More recent research suggests that with current forecasting capability the loss of gross domestic product to the UK would be around £2.9 billion but with more investment in enhanced forecasting this could be reduced to £0.9 billion (Oughton et al., 2019). The purpose of this proposal is to provide enhanced forecasting to help reduce the impact on satellites. Currently there are over 2,200 operational satellites in orbit (December 2019).
This proposal brings together scientists from across the UK with stakeholders from the UK Met Office. The goal is to develop a real-time system to forecast radiation exposure to satellites for a range of different orbits, and quantify the risk of damage or degradation. We will do this by taking research models of the Earth's radiation belts - regions of high energy electrons and protons trapped by the external geomagnetic field and which circulate around the Earth - and turn them into operational forecasting models. The models will use real-time data from ground and space to forecast radiation exposure up to 24 hours ahead for different orbits, including geostationary orbit, low Earth orbit and medium Earth orbit. It will also include data on radiation storms and cosmic rays. The particle radiation levels will then be used to calculate the damaging radiation effects on electronic components and solar arrays and compared to design guidelines to assess the risk of damage.
The project will also include four research elements which are specifically targeted at reducing the uncertainty in the forecasts.
The project will deliver a world leading forecasting capability for the Met Office that will help satellite operators take mitigating action, help satellite designers develop more resilient design and space insurance reduce the risk of loss. It will also support the growth of the satellite industry and the UK National Risk Register.
1. Cannon, P, S., et al. (2013), Extreme Space Weather: Impacts on Engineered Systems and Infrastructure, Royal Academy of Engineering, London, SW1A 2WH.
2. Cabinet Office, (2012), National risk register of civil emergencies, Whitehall, London SW1A 2WH, www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk
3. Oughton et al., (2019), A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom, Risk Analysis, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13229
Planned Impact
Impact Summary
We have identified the following non-academic users who will benefit from our research:
UK Met Office
The research proposed in this project (Sat-Risk) is to develop an operational space weather forecasting system for the UK Met Office that is specially tailored to help protect satellites in orbit. The UK Met Office will be the direct beneficiaries. The system will be able to provide forecasts of particle radiation exposure to satellites up to 24 hours ahead for low and medium Earth and geostationary orbit. At the end of the project the system will be licensed to the UK Met Office for continued operation.
Satellite operators
Satellite operators have an interest in the safe and reliable operation of their spacecraft. Space weather events can cause satellite anomalies (malfunctions) resulting in loss of service and in some cases total satellite loss. It can also mean a delay in reaching orbit and lost revenue if an anomaly affects electric orbit raising. Our research will lead to a step-change in space weather forecasting which will provide satellite operators with space weather situation awareness. This will enable them to plan mitigating action, for example, to suspend orbit manoeuvres and software updates, to ensure more staff are available to deal with problems, to have back-up systems immediately available, and when appropriate to inform users that some services may be at risk.
Space insurance
Satellite insurance via Lloyds of London is a major international business. Insurance will benefit from the system as the forecasts should enable operators take mitigating action if a space weather event is imminent and hence reduce the risk of damage or an insurance claim. If there is an anomaly, space insurance may also benefit from an independent record of forecasts which could be interrogated to help understand the cause of an anomaly.
Satellite construction companies
Satellite designers must protect satellites from the harsh radiation environment in space. They use models of the radiation environment to design for the 'reasonable worst case' but there is a very large uncertainty. There are thousands of new satellites planned for launch into regions of space where we have very little information on the radiation environment or its variability. Furthermore, the growing use of electric instead of chemical propulsion means that satellites spend much more time in the Earth's intense radiation belts where there is a higher risk of degradation. Our forecasts and research will provide more information on the radiation environment that satellite designers will be able to use to help assess the amount of shielding needed to protect satellites.
General public
It is widely acknowledged that space research attracts young people into Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM subjects). The press coverage of the UK Astronaut Tim Peak and the International Space Station, is compelling evidence of the public's interest in space research. Dissemination of the forecasting system will help attract young people into the STEM subjects.
Government and Policy makers
Extreme space weather was put on the UK National Risk Register in 2012 and revised in 2017 with a recommendation for more investment into forecasting as a means of mitigating the impact. Recent research suggests that with current forecasting capability the loss of gross domestic product to the UK would be around £2.9 billion but with more investment in enhanced forecasting this could be reduced to £0.9 billion (Oughton et al., 2019). The research proposed in this project (Sat-Risk) will help protect our national critical infrastructure and help deliver for the Government a more prosperous space industry. The PI (Richard Horne) is a member of the Space Environment Impacts Expert Group (SEIEG) and will be able to provide advice to Government through this Group at meetings with the Cabinet Office.
We have identified the following non-academic users who will benefit from our research:
UK Met Office
The research proposed in this project (Sat-Risk) is to develop an operational space weather forecasting system for the UK Met Office that is specially tailored to help protect satellites in orbit. The UK Met Office will be the direct beneficiaries. The system will be able to provide forecasts of particle radiation exposure to satellites up to 24 hours ahead for low and medium Earth and geostationary orbit. At the end of the project the system will be licensed to the UK Met Office for continued operation.
Satellite operators
Satellite operators have an interest in the safe and reliable operation of their spacecraft. Space weather events can cause satellite anomalies (malfunctions) resulting in loss of service and in some cases total satellite loss. It can also mean a delay in reaching orbit and lost revenue if an anomaly affects electric orbit raising. Our research will lead to a step-change in space weather forecasting which will provide satellite operators with space weather situation awareness. This will enable them to plan mitigating action, for example, to suspend orbit manoeuvres and software updates, to ensure more staff are available to deal with problems, to have back-up systems immediately available, and when appropriate to inform users that some services may be at risk.
Space insurance
Satellite insurance via Lloyds of London is a major international business. Insurance will benefit from the system as the forecasts should enable operators take mitigating action if a space weather event is imminent and hence reduce the risk of damage or an insurance claim. If there is an anomaly, space insurance may also benefit from an independent record of forecasts which could be interrogated to help understand the cause of an anomaly.
Satellite construction companies
Satellite designers must protect satellites from the harsh radiation environment in space. They use models of the radiation environment to design for the 'reasonable worst case' but there is a very large uncertainty. There are thousands of new satellites planned for launch into regions of space where we have very little information on the radiation environment or its variability. Furthermore, the growing use of electric instead of chemical propulsion means that satellites spend much more time in the Earth's intense radiation belts where there is a higher risk of degradation. Our forecasts and research will provide more information on the radiation environment that satellite designers will be able to use to help assess the amount of shielding needed to protect satellites.
General public
It is widely acknowledged that space research attracts young people into Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM subjects). The press coverage of the UK Astronaut Tim Peak and the International Space Station, is compelling evidence of the public's interest in space research. Dissemination of the forecasting system will help attract young people into the STEM subjects.
Government and Policy makers
Extreme space weather was put on the UK National Risk Register in 2012 and revised in 2017 with a recommendation for more investment into forecasting as a means of mitigating the impact. Recent research suggests that with current forecasting capability the loss of gross domestic product to the UK would be around £2.9 billion but with more investment in enhanced forecasting this could be reduced to £0.9 billion (Oughton et al., 2019). The research proposed in this project (Sat-Risk) will help protect our national critical infrastructure and help deliver for the Government a more prosperous space industry. The PI (Richard Horne) is a member of the Space Environment Impacts Expert Group (SEIEG) and will be able to provide advice to Government through this Group at meetings with the Cabinet Office.
Organisations
Publications
Bernhardt PA
(2022)
Active Precipitation of Radiation Belt Electrons Using Rocket Exhaust Driven Amplification (REDA) of Man-Made Whistlers.
in Journal of geophysical research. Space physics
Brown E
(2022)
Attention-Based Machine Vision Models and Techniques for Solar Wind Speed Forecasting Using Solar EUV Images
in Space Weather
Reidy J
(2024)
Characterizing Radiation-Belt Energetic Electron Precipitation Spectra: A Comparison of Quasi-Linear Diffusion Theory With In Situ Measurements
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Daggitt T
(2024)
Chorus wave power at the strong diffusion limit overcomes electron losses due to strong diffusion
in Nature Communications
Walton S
(2021)
Cross- Coherence of the Outer Radiation Belt During Storms and the Role of the Plasmapause
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Gu W
(2021)
Direct Evidence Reveals Transmitter Signal Propagation in the Magnetosphere
in Geophysical Research Letters
Chen L
(2022)
Ducted Chorus Waves Cause Sub-Relativistic and Relativistic Electron Microbursts
in Geophysical Research Letters
Wong J
(2022)
Electron Diffusion by Magnetosonic Waves in the Earth's Radiation Belts
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Chen L
(2021)
Electron Microbursts Induced by Nonducted Chorus Waves
in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences
| Title | Celestial Incantations |
| Description | Celestial Incantations features a wide variety of space 'sounds' and a huge musical palette, including orchestral instruments, traditional instruments and electronics. The album, which is free to hear and download from bandcamp, takes the listener on a journey from Earth to the largest definitions of cosmic time and space. It invites us to consider the vastness of space, imagining time and space in the grandest sense, and embark on a spectacular journey of sound. Starting off at Earth and moving outwards we hear compositions inspired by and featuring the 'sounds' of our planet, Mars, a comet, Jupiter, Saturn, interstellar space and a galactic pulsar. The album concludes with a track featuring the 'sound' of the merger of two black holes, as evidenced by the first observed gravitational wave, an almost unbelievable ripple in space time that Einstein doubted humans could ever capture! |
| Type Of Art | Composition/Score |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Impact | 1. 41,783 track plays on bandcamp and 3026 full album downloads 2. Article in the Guardian entitled "'Chirps' in space: new album captures the sound of black holes colliding". The article included a video entitled "New album, Celestial Incantations, captures the 'sounds' of space" featuring music from the album and created by the Guardian Newspaper. This video has had 34,211 views on YouTube. 3. I led an article describing the art, music and science behind Celestial Incantations. The article, entitled "Music of the Spheres", was published as the cover articles in the February 2022 issue of Astronomy and Geophysics. 4. Music from the album has been played on number of radio stations including the Phantom Circuit (#329 & #331), Audionautic Radio (ep. 17 & ep. 20), Space is the Place Radio Show, The Magic Window, Muzak Concrete, The Dark Train (C19#70 & C19#71), and Night Tracks on BBC Radio 3 and features on four ambient compilations Ambient Spring - Orbit IV, Ambient Autumn - Orbit IV, Ambient Winter - Orbit V and Ambient Music for Ambient People: 22 Home. |
| URL | https://soundsofspaceproject.bandcamp.com/album/celestial-incantations |
| Title | In Aurora's Garden |
| Description | In Aurora's garden is the fourth album of the art-science collaboration "Sounds of Space Project". Here we experience the solar storm of 17th June 2012. A few days prior to this, on the 13th and 14th June, two large explosions on the surface of the Sun released bursts of charged particles and magnetic field which travelled outwards and towards the Earth. The material reached the Earth on the 17th June, the day chosen for our album, tearing open the Earth's magnetic field, leading to a geomagnetic storm. Particles were injected into near Earth space giving rise to radio emissions including chorus and plasmaspheric hiss. At lower altitudes electrons rained down on the Earth's upper atmosphere leading to some beautiful and stunning displays of the aurora. We hear the crackles and pops of lightning spherics, the descending tones of whistlers, the rising and falling tones of chorus and the steady hum of plasmaspheric hiss. The musical response is wide and varied and includes gongs, wood blocks, bells, vibraphones, glockenspiels, the piano, a synthesis rig, the Japanese shakuhachi and the tabla. We also hear soprano Heather Lee, in Kim Cunio's setting of a traditional Chinese text, as well as a new version of the Joni Mitchell classic Both Sides Now. Artwork produced by multimedia artist Diana Scarborough, inspired by Antarctica, the space weather data and the music, adds a rich visual element to the album. The Sounds of Space Project are myself (science lead), multimedia artist Diana Scarborough and Australian composer and musician Kim Cunio. |
| Type Of Art | Composition/Score |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Impact | The album was released on bandcamp in December 2023. Tracks from teh album have been played on The Dark Train on Warminster Community Radio, the Phantom Circuit on Beachy Head Radio and the Institute of Spectra-Sonic Sound on KEPW 97.3 FM. Tracks from the album have been played 772 times on bandcamp. |
| URL | https://soundsofspaceproject.bandcamp.com/album/in-auroras-garden |
| Title | Sunconscious |
| Description | A 1 hour radio session featuring music from our album "Sunconscious" released in 2022. Timed to coincide with the launch of NASA's heliophysics big year the session included music inspired by and including the 'sounds' of the Sun. I created the session and provided commentary throughout. |
| Type Of Art | Artistic/Creative Exhibition |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Impact | The session was aired on the Dark Train on Warminster Community Radio on 16th October 2023. It was later uploaded to Mixcloud where it received 69 listens. The show was rated 1st in the Avant-Garde chart, 6th in the Experimental Ambient Chart and 59th in the Electronica chart. |
| URL | https://www.mixcloud.com/katebosworth/wcr-dark-train-ma84-dr-nigel-merediths-sunconscious-session-16... |
| Description | A new computer model to forecast particle radiation levels in the Earth's radiation belts was delivered to the UK Met Office in January 2023. The model reconstructs the variability of particle radiation levels for the previous five days and makes a forecast for the next 24 hours. The forecasts to help satellite operators take mitigating action to protect satellites in geostationary orbit, medium Earth orbit and slot region orbits. The model has been tested on the BAS computers and developed in coordination with satellite operators and the UK Met Office. Three computer codes to forecast space weather have been delivered to the UK Met Office for operational use. |
| Exploitation Route | Three computer codes have been delivered to the Uk Met Office for operational use. |
| Sectors | Aerospace Defence and Marine Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software) Education Government Democracy and Justice Security and Diplomacy Transport |
| Description | A new computer model to forecast particle radiation levels in the Earth's radiation belts was delivered to the UK Met Office in January 2023. The model reconstructs the variability of particle radiation levels for the previous five days and makes a forecast for the next 24 hours. The forecasts to help satellite operators take mitigating action to protect satellites in geostationary orbit, medium Earth orbit and slot region orbits. The model has been tested on the BAS computers and developed in coordination with satellite operators and the UK Met Office. A new model to forecast the proton radiation belt has been delivered to the Uk Met Office in March 2024. This model is now being adapted by the Met Office for operational use to help protect satellites from radiation damage. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2024 |
| Sector | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy,Transport |
| Impact Types | Societal Economic Policy & public services |
| Description | I gave an invited presentation entitled "Extreme relativistic electron fluxes in GPS orbit" to the National Space-Based Position Navigation and Timing Advisory Board |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| URL | https://www.gps.gov/governance/advisory/meetings/2023-12/ |
| Description | Input to UK Risk Assessment for Space Weather |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
| Impact | Provided advice on the risk to satellites due to severe space weather. This is being used to update and suport the UK risk register. The impact is to help the Government plan and prepare for an extreme space weahter event, and develop better mitigation strategies. |
| Title | Electromagnetic ion cyclotron electron diffusion coefficients calculated using Van Allen Probe EMFISIS data for a range of ion compositions |
| Description | The banded structure of Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave spectra and their resonant interactions with radiation belt electrons depend on the cold ion composition. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the composition in the inner magnetosphere due to difficulties in direct flux measurements. Here we determine the sensitivity of electron diffusion by EMIC waves to the cold ion composition. The diffusion coefficients are calculated using collocated EMIC waves spectra and plasma densities observed by Van Allen Probe EMFISIS data, parameterised by Dst, using quasi-linear theory implemented in the PADIE code. Funding was provided by NERC Highlight Topic grant: NE/P01738X/1 (Rad-Sat), NERC grant: NE/V00249X/1 (Sat-Risk) and NERC grant: NE/R016038/1 |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://data.bas.ac.uk/full-record.php?id=GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/01654 |
| Title | Electron Diffusion by Magnetosonic Waves in the Earth's Radiation Belts |
| Description | We conduct a global survey of magnetosonic waves and compute the associated bounce and drift averaged diffusion coefficients, taking into account co-located measurements of fpe/fce, to assess the role of magnetosonic waves in radiation belt dynamics, where fpe is the plasma frequency and fce is the electron gyrofrequency.. The average magnetosonic wave intensities increase with increasing geomagnetic activity and decreasing relative frequency with the majority of the wave power in the range fcp < f < 0.3fLHR during active conditions, where fcp is the proton gyrofrequency and fLHR is the lower hybrid resonance frequency. In the region 4.0 |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://data.bas.ac.uk/full-record.php?id=GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/01628 |
| Title | Evidence of strong diffusion of radiation belt electrons in satellite data, and numerical simulations of strong diffusion using the BAS-RBM 2D. |
| Description | The data set contains ephemera for the Van Allen Probes A satellite (VAP-A) and the Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) m01 and n19 for the period 2013-03-17 to 2013-03-18. Chorus wave intensities calculated from data from the VAP-A EMFISIS instrument and trapped and precipitating electron fluxes calculated from the POES MEPED instruments are included in order to demonstrate the existence of conditions producing strong diffusion of electrons. Electron fluxes and phase space densities from simulations of strong diffusion performed using the BAS-RBM 2D are also include. This material is based upon work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under award number FA9550-19-1-7039. Richard Horne and Sarah Glauert were also supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/V00249X/1 (Sat-Risk) and National and Public Good activity grant NE/R016445/1. Giulio Del Zanna acknowledges support from STFC (UK) via the consolidated grant to the astrophysics group at DAMTP, University of Cambridge (ST/T000481/1). Jay Albert acknowledges support from NASA Grant No. 80NSSC20K1270. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://data.bas.ac.uk/full-record.php?id=GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/01757 |
| Title | Extreme relativistic electron fluxes in GPS orbit: Analysis of NS41 Burst Detector Dosimeter IIR (BDD-IIR) data |
| Description | Relativistic electrons in the Earth's outer radiation belt are a significant space weather hazard. Satellites in GPS-type orbits pass through the heart of the outer radiation belt where they may be exposed to large fluxes of relativistic electrons. In this study we conduct an extreme value analysis of the daily average relativistic electron flux in GPS orbit as a function of energy and L using data from the US NS41 satellite from 10 December 2000 to 25 July 2020. The 1 in 10 year flux at L=4.5, in the heart of the outer radiation belt, decreases with increasing energy ranging from 8.2x10^6 cm^-2s^-1sr^-1MeV^-1 at E = 0.6 MeV to 33 cm^-2s^-1sr^-1MeV^-1 at E = 8.0 MeV. The 1 in 100 year is a factor of 1.1 to 1.7 larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year event. The 1 in 10 year flux at L=6.5, on field lines which map to the vicinity of geostationary orbit, decrease with increasing energy ranging from 6.2x10^5 cm^-2s^-1sr^-1MeV^-1 at E = 0.6 MeV to 0.48 cm^-2s^-1sr^-1MeV^-1 at E = 8.0 MeV. Here, the 1 in 100 year event is a factor of 1.1 to 13 times larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year event, with the value of the factor increasing with increasing energy. Our analysis suggests that the fluxes of relativistic electrons with energies in the range 0.6 <= E <= 2.0 MeV in the region 4.25 <= L <= 4.75 have an upper bound. In contrast, further out and at higher energies the fluxes of relativistic electrons are largely unbounded. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grants NE/V00249X/1 (Sat-Risk) and NE/R016038/1. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | This dataset contains the results presented in the paper "Extreme relativistic electron fluxes in GPS orbit: Analysis of NS41 Burst Detector Dosimeter IIR (BDD-IIR) data". In particular, it provides the 1 in 10, 1in 50 and 1 in 100 year space weather events in GPS orbit as a function of L and energy. These results are useful for satellite operators and engineers who require realistic estimates of the highest fluxes that are likely to be encountered in a particular satellite orbit to assess the impact extreme events on the satellite fleet and to improve resilience of future satellites by better design of satellite components if required. The results are also useful for satellite insurers who require this information to ensure satellite operators are doing all they can to reduce risk and to help them evaluate realistic disaster scenarios. |
| URL | https://data.bas.ac.uk/full-record.php?id=GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/01726 |
| Title | New Chorus Diffusion Coefficients for Radiation Belt Modelling |
| Description | Whistler mode chorus is an important magnetospheric wave emission playing a major role in radiation belt dynamics, where it contributes to both the acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons. In this study we compute bounce and drift averaged chorus diffusion coefficients for 3.0 < L* < 6.0, using the TS04 external magnetic field model, taking into account co-located near-equatorial measurements of the wave intensity and fpe/fce, by combining the Van Allen probes measurements with data from a multi-satellite VLF wave database. The variation of chorus wave normal angle with spatial location and fpe/fce is also taken into account. We find that chorus propagating at small wave normal angles has the dominant contribution to the diffusion rates in most MLT sectors. However, in the region 4 <= MLT < 11 high wave normal angles dominate at intermediate pitch angles. In the region 3 < L* < 4, the bounce and drift averaged pitch angle and energy diffusion rates during active conditions are primarily larger than those in our earlier models by up to a factor of 10 depending on energy and pitch angle. Further out, the results are similar. We find that the bounce and drift averaged energy and pitch angle diffusion rates can be significantly larger than the new model in regions of low fpe/fce,eq, where the differences can be up to a factor of 10 depending on energy and pitch angle. Funding was provided by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Highlight Topic grant NE/P01738X/1 (Rad-Sat) and the NERC grants NE/V00249X/1 (Sat-Risk), NE/R016038/1 and NE/X000389/1. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | This dataset provides new chorus diffusion coefficients for radiation belt modellers. |
| URL | https://data.bas.ac.uk/full-record.php?id=GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/01782 |
| Title | Solutions to BAS-PRO model runs for Modelling 1-10MeV Proton Phase Space Density |
| Description | This dataset contains solution data produced by the BAS-PRO proton radiation belt model for the study "Modelling Inner Proton Belt Variability at Energies 1 to 10MeV using BAS-PRO". The solution data is in the form of 3D grids describing phase space density computed during dynamic simulations of Earth's proton belt over the modelling period 2014 to 2018. Three model runs are included: SA19, J81 and S16. Files were produced in May 2021. This work was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) via Doctoral Training Programme NE/R009457/1. Richard B. Horne and Sarah A. Glauert were supported by NERC National Capability grants NE/R016038/1 and NE/R016445/1, and by NERC grant NE/V00249X/1 (Sat-Risk), and by Highlight Topic Grant NE/P01738X/1 (Rad-Sat). Giulio Del Zanna acknowledges support from STFC (UK) via the consolidated grants to the atomic astrophysics group (AAG) at DAMTP, University of Cambridge (ST/P000665/1 and ST/T000481/1). Seth G. Claudepierre acknowledges support from NASA Grant no. NNX17AF10G and from RBSP-ECT funding provided by JHU/APL Contract 967399 under NASA's Prime Contract NAS5-01072. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://data.bas.ac.uk/full-record.php?id=GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/01565 |
| Title | Statistical investigation of the frequency dependence of the chorus source mechanism of plasmaspheric hiss |
| Description | We use data from eight satellites to statistically examine the role of chorus as a potential source of plasmaspheric hiss. We find that the strong equatorial (|?m| < 6°) chorus wave power in the frequency range 50 < f < 200 Hz does not extend to high latitudes in any MLT sector and is unlikely to be the source of the low frequency plasmaspheric hiss in this frequency range. In contrast, strong equatorial chorus wave power in the medium frequency range 200 < f < 2000 Hz is observed to extend to high latitudes and low altitudes in the pre-noon sector, consistent with ray tracing modelling from a chorus source and supporting the chorus to hiss generation mechanism. At higher frequencies, chorus may contribute to the weak plasmaspheric hiss seen on the dayside in the frequency range 2000 < f < 3000 Hz band, but is not responsible for the weak plasmaspheric hiss on the night-side in the frequency range 3000 < f < 4000 Hz. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Highlight Topic grant NE/P01738X/1 (Rad-Sat) and the NERC grants NE/V00249X/1 (Sat-Risk) and NE/R016038/1. Jacob Bortnik received funding from NASA grant NNX14AI18G, and RBSP-ECT and EMFISIS funding provided by JHU/APL contracts 967399 and 921647 under NASA's prime contract NAS5-01072. Wen Li and Xiao-Chen Shen received funding from NASA grants 80NSSC20K0698 and 80NSSC19K0845, NSF grant AGS-1847818, and the Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship FG-2018-10936. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://data.bas.ac.uk/full-record.php?id=GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/01467 |
| Title | TS05 and TS07 external magnetic field model L*, LCDS and B field data for the GOES-13, GOES-15 and HIMAWARI-8 satellites for three geomagnetic storm periods |
| Description | The dataset contains satellite L* values, last closed drift shell (LCDS) model locations and model magnetic field values for three two day periods covering three different magnetic storms. The periods covered are 27-28 February 2014, 22-23 June 2015 and 14-15 December 2015. The L* values are calculated for electrons with a pitch angle of 90 degrees at the locations of the GOES-13, GOES-15 and HIMAWARI-8 geostationary satellites, using the IRBEM library with the TS05 and TS07 external magnetic field models. Magnetic field values from the models are also included for the GOES-13 satellite during the June 2015 event. LCDS values for each of the periods are included, with two LCDS models based on the TS05 and TS07 field models, and a third LCDS model based particle tracing simulations. This material is based upon work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under award number FA9550-19-1-7039. Richard Horne and Sarah Glauert were supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Highlight Topic Grant NE/P01738X/1 (Rad-Sat) and NERC grant NE/V00249X/1 (Sat-Risk) and National and Public Good activity grant NE/R016445/1. Giulio Del Zanna acknowledges support from STFC (UK) via the consolidated grant to the astrophysics group at DAMTP, University of Cambridge (ST/T000481/1). |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://data.bas.ac.uk/full-record.php?id=GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/01653 |
| Description | "Sounds of Space" article for Antarktikos Magazine by Nigel Meredith, Diana Scarborough and Kim Cunio |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | This article described the 'sounds' of space and how I have used them in a muti-disciplinary art-science collaboration to produce three albums, 'Aurora Musicalis', 'Celestial Incantations' and 'Sunconscious'. All three albums are available on bandcamp. Antarktikos is a bi-annual print magazine that combines artistic and scientific exploration within the awe-inspiring and thought-provoking context of Antarctica. This article has thus enabled me to share my work and art-science collaboration with a wider audience. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.antarktikos.com |
| Description | Armchair Aurora - Making Music with Mother Nature |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I took part in a livestream aurora event run by the Disability charity Aerobility. I described the natural radio "sounds" of our planet as recorded at Halley Research Station, Antarctica and how they have been combined with original music on a grand piano to create novel ambient soundscapes, which resulted in the production of a new album, Aurora Musicalis, last year. I also played the music video from Aurora Musicalis which contains sonic highlights of the natural radio 'sounds' from the album, set to the music of the first track and featuring images from the BAS image collection. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmnj682D42s |
| Description | Aurora Musicalis on the ABC Radio National Breakfast Show |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I spoke to Hamish McDonald about the science behind Aurora Musicalis on the ABC Radio National Breakfast Show. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/collaboration-between-art-and-science-uses-s... |
| Description | BAS Press Release |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | This press release, entitled "Scientists set out benchmarks for extreme space weather" was released by BAS on 15th June 2023 to coincide with the release of my paper on extreme space weather in GPS orbit. The results are important for industry and government, serving as benchmarks against which to compare other extreme space weather events and to assess the potential impact of an extreme event. It was picked up by a number of news outlets including Phys.org, miragenews.com, spaceref.com, spacedaily.com, labmanager.com, sciencedaily.com and enn.com. The press release also resulted in a media interview with Tereza Pultarova from Space.Com and, subsequently, a news story in Space.Com entitled "GPS satellites threatened more by mild solar storms than monster sun flares". |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/scientists-set-out-benchmarks-for-extreme-space-weather/ |
| Description | Cambridge University Astronomical Society - "Celestial Incantations" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Undergraduate students |
| Results and Impact | In this presentation, I explored the amazing variety of natural 'sounds' detected at Halley, Antarctica and then embarked on a sound-led, data-driven journey from Earth-orbit to beyond the galaxy! I then described how the "Sounds of Space Project", our art-science collaboration, has woven these mysterious "sounds" into performances that fuse art and science, new music, and short films. I introduced our first album, "Aurora Musicalis", which features recordings from the Halley VLF Receiver accompanied by ambient music on a grand piano. My talk culminated with a presentation of the tracks and track artwork from "Celestial Incantations", our second album, which features the 'sounds of space' from astronomical objects both within and beyond our solar system together with a massive musical palette, including orchestral and traditional instruments and electronics.\ The talks was recorded and is now available on our 'Sounds of Space" YouTube channel here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f33DdOOrqkc. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/168926 |
| Description | Cambridge University Astronomical Society - "Sounds of Space" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Undergraduate students |
| Results and Impact | I gave a presentation in which I introduced the amazing variety of natural radio 'sounds' detected at Halley, Antarctica and then embarked on a sound-led, data-driven journey from Earth-orbit to beyond the galaxy! I then described how these remarkable 'sounds' have been used in art-science collaborations to create performances, new music, and short films. Finally, I described how the recordings from Halley had been used to enhance the exploration gameplay in the space simulation video game Elite Dangerous. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/136933 |
| Description | Celestial Incantations on The Moncrieff Show |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I talked to Clare McKenna about Celestial Incantations on the Moncrieff Show on Newstalk, a national independent radio station in Ireland. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/highlights-from-moncrieff/celestial-incantations |
| Description | Contribution to a UNOOSA special report on "Sonification: a tool for research, outreach and inclusion in space sciences" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | I contributed to a United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs special report on "Sonification: a tool for research, outreach and inclusion in space sciences". This report provides a comprehensive overview of sonification in terms of its contribution to space science and accessibility. It also makes recommendations to address these issues, with the goal of developing and implementing sonification as a universal tool for space science research and communication that is accessible to BVI researchers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.unoosa.org/documents/pdf/Space4PersonswithDisabilites/UNOOSA_Special_Report_on_Sonificat... |
| Description | Invited talk entitled "Extreme relativistic electron fluxes in GPS orbit" presented at the National Space-Based Position, Navigation and Timing Board Meeting |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | I gave a talk presenting the 1 in 100 year space weather events in GPS orbit as a function of location and electron energy. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.gps.gov/governance/advisory/meetings/2023-12/ |
| Description | New Album "St Swithin's Day Storm" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | The 'sounds of space' recorded during a geomagnetic storm appear on an exciting new album by Letters from Mouse featuring Dr Nigel Meredith. In this album, Steven Anderson, aka Letters From Mouse, takes us on a journey through the various stages of the storm, using raw and processed space 'sounds' from the Halley VLF receiver. The processed sounds form the bedrock of the album and were created by running the VLF recordings as samples into his modular system, resulting in some weird and wonderful electronic music. The music is accompanied by a voiceover by Nigel Meredith explaining the space 'sounds', and, more generally, space weather and its potential impacts on the performance of technology in orbit and on Earth. The storm itself, which peaked on St Swithin's Day (15thJuly) in 2012, was accompanied by some sustained and enhanced chorus emissions and the gradual acceleration of electrons to relativistic energies at geostationary orbit, potentially increasing the risk to communications satellites operating in this region. The album, St Swithin's Day Storm, was released by Subexotic Records on 24th February, 2023. It is available on the usual digital platforms and limited edition pressed vinyl. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/geomagnetic-storm-sounds-inspire-new-album/ |
| Description | News Story in Space.Com |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I talked to Tereza Pultarova at Space.Com about my work on extreme space weather in GPS orbit. This resulted in the news story entitled "GPS satellites threatened more by mild solar storms than monster sun flares" published by Space.Com on 10th August. This news story led to me being invited to give a talk to the US Space-Based Position, Navigation and Timing Board and the publication of the original paper in Coordinates magazine, an exclusive monthly magazine on positioning, navigation, associated technologies and applications (https://mycoordinates.org/about-us/). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.space.com/mild-solar-storms-threat-gps-satellites |
| Description | Nigel Meredith spoke to Dr Alfredo Carpineti of IFLScience about space weather and how it affects us all in Series 3 of the "The Big Questions" podcasts, released on 18th August |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | In this podcast I talked about space weather and how it affects us all. I also described some of the exciting ongoing research being conducted in the Space Weather and Atmosphere Team at BAS. I concluded by talking about and introducing some of the amazing 'sounds' of space weather as recorded by the VLF Receiver at Halley VI Research Station. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.iflscience.com/iflscience-the-big-questions-what-is-space-weather-and-how-does-it-affect... |
| Description | Talk entitled "Extreme relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt" presented at the UK Space Weather and Space Environment meeting in Cardiff in September |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | I presented my recent work on the 1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year space weather events in GPS orbit as a function of position and electron energy to a wide audience consisting of space safety scientists, engineers, forecasters, end-users, and policy makers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://iop.eventsair.com/ukswse2023/ |