Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
Department Name: Mathematics
Abstract
The Arctic region is undergoing dramatic changes, in the atmosphere, ocean, ice and on land. The Arctic lower atmosphere is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average, the Arctic sea ice and Greenland Ice Sheet melt have accelerated in the past 30 years. Notable observed changes in the ocean include the freshening of the Beaufort Gyre, and 'Atlantification' of the Barents Sea and of the Eastern Arctic Ocean. Such profound environmental change is likely to have implications across the globe - it is often said, "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic". Past work has indicated that Arctic amplification can, in principle, affect European climate and extreme weather, but a clear picture of how and why is currently lacking. The 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere concluded "changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to influence midlatitude weather, but there is low confidence in the detection of this influence for specific weather types".
ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.
ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.
Publications
Lo Y
(2023)
Changes in Winter Temperature Extremes From Future Arctic Sea-Ice Loss and Ocean Warming
in Geophysical Research Letters
McCrystall M
(2021)
Arctic Winter Temperature Variations Correlated With ENSO Are Dependent on Coincidental Sea Ice Changes
in Geophysical Research Letters
McCrystall MR
(2021)
New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected.
in Nature communications
Mudhar R
(2023)
Understanding the Stratospheric Response to Arctic Amplification
Oltmanns M
(2024)
European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years
in Weather and Climate Dynamics
Osborne J
(2020)
The North Atlantic as a Driver of Summer Atmospheric Circulation
in Journal of Climate
Richards A
(2022)
Spatial and Temporal Variability of Atlantic Water in the Arctic From 40 Years of Observations
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Screen J
(2022)
Net Equatorward Shift of the Jet Streams When the Contribution From Sea-Ice Loss Is Constrained by Observed Eddy Feedback
in Geophysical Research Letters
Screen J
(2021)
An ice-free Arctic: what could it mean for European weather?
in Weather
Smith D
(2022)
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
in Nature Communications
Walsh A
(2022)
Non-Linear Response of the Extratropics to Tropical Climate Variability
in Geophysical Research Letters
Warner J
(2020)
Links Between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and the Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Explained by Internal Variability and Tropical Forcing
in Geophysical Research Letters
Xu M
(2023)
Important role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Arctic mid-to-upper tropospheric warming in response to sea-ice loss
in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Xu M
(2021)
Distinct Tropospheric and Stratospheric Mechanisms Linking Historical Barents-Kara Sea-Ice Loss and Late Winter Eurasian Temperature Variability
in Geophysical Research Letters