Drivers and Repercussions of UK Insect Declines (DRUID)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: Sch of Biology
Abstract
Due to their vast numbers and diversity, insects dominate natural ecosystems and processes. Wholesale insect declines could have profound consequences. Yet despite growing public concern about a possible "insect Armageddon," evidence of widespread insect declines remains fragmentary, even in the UK (arguably one of the best studied countries on Earth); nor do we understand the value that insects provide for wider society. A far stronger evidence-base is required to provide a secure basis for policy, to devise methods to reverse insect declines and protect the roles that insects play in multiple ecosystem services.
We have assembled four of the UK's leading insect dynamics research teams to assess the causes, consequences and potential remedies of insect declines. We will combine data from standardised insect monitoring programmes of a wide range of taxa, modelled outputs of biodiversity databases, and novel assays using weather radar signals to assess shifts in insect abundance, diversity, functional composition and biomass in both terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems across Britain. Species-level trend data will be assessed relative to a range of potential driver variables and species' traits in an overarching synthesis of decline patterns across taxa and environments. The team has unrivalled access to the latest UK datasets and modelling developments covering insects and environmental drivers down to 1-km resolution or finer, through a wide range of on-going environmental research projects and collaborating partner organisations. Our results will be used to inform mechanistic models to predict the dynamics of insect species and functional-groups across the UK in space and time. Functional consequences of insect declines will be assessed, with particular focus on trophic roles as prey in aerial (bird/bat) and aquatic (fish) systems, pollination and pest control functions, and in nutrient transport between freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. How alterations in insect communities are linked to economic and cultural values will be assessed through a review of existing studies, augmented with participatory valuation approaches for ecosystem services that are poorly studied, such as cultural services. The population, community and functional models developed above will be applied to a diverse set of contrasting future climate, land-use and policy scenarios, to predict insect dynamics with and without specific mitigation measures. Both scenarios and mitigation options will be co-designed together with relevant stakeholders and linked to existing climate scenarios and planned agri-environmental schemes. Consequences of recent past, current and future scenarios for human welfare and natural capital will be estimated, using stakeholder-based valuations. Our novel, integrated approach will guarantee high quality and high impact research outputs, which will be widely disseminated to the scientific and stakeholder communities, and the general public. By engaging relevant policy and decision-makers at an early stage of the project, results will be tailored and directly relevant to on-going policy development in land management, biodiversity conservation and the implementation of natural capital approaches, maximising the likelihood of substantial impacts on both society and the natural world.
We have assembled four of the UK's leading insect dynamics research teams to assess the causes, consequences and potential remedies of insect declines. We will combine data from standardised insect monitoring programmes of a wide range of taxa, modelled outputs of biodiversity databases, and novel assays using weather radar signals to assess shifts in insect abundance, diversity, functional composition and biomass in both terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems across Britain. Species-level trend data will be assessed relative to a range of potential driver variables and species' traits in an overarching synthesis of decline patterns across taxa and environments. The team has unrivalled access to the latest UK datasets and modelling developments covering insects and environmental drivers down to 1-km resolution or finer, through a wide range of on-going environmental research projects and collaborating partner organisations. Our results will be used to inform mechanistic models to predict the dynamics of insect species and functional-groups across the UK in space and time. Functional consequences of insect declines will be assessed, with particular focus on trophic roles as prey in aerial (bird/bat) and aquatic (fish) systems, pollination and pest control functions, and in nutrient transport between freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. How alterations in insect communities are linked to economic and cultural values will be assessed through a review of existing studies, augmented with participatory valuation approaches for ecosystem services that are poorly studied, such as cultural services. The population, community and functional models developed above will be applied to a diverse set of contrasting future climate, land-use and policy scenarios, to predict insect dynamics with and without specific mitigation measures. Both scenarios and mitigation options will be co-designed together with relevant stakeholders and linked to existing climate scenarios and planned agri-environmental schemes. Consequences of recent past, current and future scenarios for human welfare and natural capital will be estimated, using stakeholder-based valuations. Our novel, integrated approach will guarantee high quality and high impact research outputs, which will be widely disseminated to the scientific and stakeholder communities, and the general public. By engaging relevant policy and decision-makers at an early stage of the project, results will be tailored and directly relevant to on-going policy development in land management, biodiversity conservation and the implementation of natural capital approaches, maximising the likelihood of substantial impacts on both society and the natural world.
Organisations
- University of Leeds (Lead Research Organisation)
- National Science Foundation (NSF) (Collaboration)
- The Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute (Collaboration)
- The Riverfly Partnership (Project Partner)
- Riverfly Recording Schemes (Project Partner)
- BASF (Germany) (Project Partner)
- Environment Agency (Project Partner)
- Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Project Partner)
- Buglife (Project Partner)
- Angling Trust (Project Partner)
Publications
Guenat S
(2023)
A global meta-analysis reveals contrasting impacts of air, light, and noise pollution on pollination
in Ecology and Evolution
Powell KE
(2023)
Abundance trends for river macroinvertebrates vary across taxa, trophic group and river typology.
in Global change biology
Boyd R
(2022)
ROBITT : A tool for assessing the risk-of-bias in studies of temporal trends in ecology
in Methods in Ecology and Evolution
Lukach M
(2022)
The development of an unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis of dual-polarization weather surveillance radar observations to assess nocturnal insect abundance and diversity.
in Remote sensing in ecology and conservation
Image M
(2022)
Which interventions contribute most to the net effect of England's agri-environment schemes on pollination services?
in Landscape Ecology
Description | It is still early in the award to list the projects discoveries or achievements. There are growing sets of results showing positive and negative trends in specific insect species and groups, and responses to key environmental and management drivers. We have compiled datasets covering a wide range of UK insect taxa (including Aquatic bugs; Bees; Butterflies; Caddisflies; Carabids; Craneflies; Dragonflies; Earwigs; Empid & Dolichopodid Flies; Fungus gnats; Grasshoppers and allies; Hoverflies; Ladybirds; Longhorn beetles; Mayflies; Moths; Shield bugs; Soldierflies; Stoneflies; Wasps), both from existing recording schemes and from standardised monitoring programs -- including new data from suction trap by-catch. We have run hierarchical occupancy models for 14 of the above groups, giving species-specific annual times-series of occupancy (estimating the proportion of occupied UK/GB grid cells from 1970 to 2020+) for >2500 species and providing the most comprehensive update of its kind. The DRUID team at UKCEH have co-led development of a new framework for assessing risk-of-bias in studies of temporal trends (ROBITT). Such assessments are common in many disciplines, notably medical research, but until now have been lacking in ecology. We have developed an initial version of a shiny app designed to facilitate feedback from taxonomic group experts on the annual occupancy outputs and bias assessments described above and their associated trends. We have also compiled data on many of the key potential drivers of insect change, and are linking these to local and national insect dynamics. Many of our achievements so far are methodological. For example, a recently accepted paper in Methods in Ecology and Evolution applies Artificial Neural Net (ANN) methods to link species' traits to responses to environmental drivers. Our ANN builds on species traits and, as such, constitutes a Joint Species Distribution Model (JSDM), able to identify not only species-specific responses to the environment, but also shared responses across the community that are mediated by species traits. Model performance evaluated at the species level quantifies not only the reliability of species predictions, but also how much of a species' responses is dictated by its traits and how much it deviates from a stereotyped response. These developments bring ANNs unmatched predictive capabilities to the field of JSDM, at the same time of lifting their reputed drawback of poor explainability. |
Exploitation Route | The tools, datasets and findings of the project will help document trends in UK insect abundance, biodiversity and function, and help model the implications of future policy and management scenarios for insects and the ecosystem services they provide. |
Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
Description | It is still early in the award to list non-academic achievements, however, we are engaging with stakeholders that include BASF, Bat Conservation Trust, Environment Agency, Buglife, Butterfly Conservation, Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA), Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), The Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC), Natural England, The Natural History Museum, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) and the volunteer-led national recording schemes and societies. With these and other stakeholders we have and will continue to update them on the project's outcomes informally and via dedicated stakeholder meetings. |
First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
Description | Are sterols landscape limiting nutrients for wild bees in the UK? |
Amount | £650,280 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/V012282/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 07/2021 |
End | 07/2024 |
Description | Impact and Innovation fund |
Amount | £17,447 (GBP) |
Funding ID | 19309373 |
Organisation | University of Leeds |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 11/2022 |
End | 07/2023 |
Description | Building link to Sanger Institute BIOSCAN monitoring project |
Organisation | The Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Sample collection |
Collaborator Contribution | Molecular analysis and ID |
Impact | none yet, Anticipate taxonomic and informatic outputs. |
Start Year | 2023 |
Description | Participation in NSF Status of Insects RCN |
Organisation | National Science Foundation (NSF) |
Country | United States |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | An international Research Coordination Network has been established by the US National Science Foundation. Our work is germane to the network's interests, and multiple project members have joined the network, serving within its Data Aggregation, Quantitative Analysis, Causes of Declines, Consequences of Declines and Solutions working groups. |
Collaborator Contribution | The RCN has run a series of webinars bringing together the global research community on insect declines. It also distr=ibutes links to recent papers on the topic, and serves as a clearing-house for international research collaboration. |
Impact | The Network has only just been formed. The potential outcomes are still in the future. |
Start Year | 2022 |
Title | ROBITT |
Description | ROBITT: Risk Of Bias In studies of Temporal Trends in ecology tool. ROBITT has a similar format to its counterparts in other disciplines: it comprises signalling questions designed to elicit information on the potential for bias in key study domains. In answering these, users will define study inferential goal(s) and relevant statistical target populations. This information is used to assess potential sampling biases across domains relevant to the research question (e.g. geography, taxonomy, environment), and how these vary through time. If assessments indicate biases, then users must clearly describe them and/or explain what mitigating action will be taken. |
Type Of Technology | New/Improved Technique/Technology |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Impact | The tool is available as a supplementary file online (Appendix 1). It is beginning to be employed by analysts in the field. |
URL | https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/2041-210X.13857 |
Description | Presentation to CIEEM Invertebrate Conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presentation summarizing evidence to date concerning the evidence of global and UK Insect declines, and potential drivers thereof. The presentation described the two NERC Highlights projects on this issue: DRUID and GLiTRS, and described ways in which the Ecological Consultants community can contribute to the evidence base. The presentation was followed by lively discussion and constructive dialogue. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | http://events.cieem.net/Events/EventPages/25012022000000CIEEM2022WalesConferenceInvertebratesThinkSm... |
Description | Royal Entomological Society Keynote speech |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Dr. Chris Hassall presented a keynote speech to the UK Royal Entomological Society, discussing our two current radar entomology research projects. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |