GLobal Insect Threat-Response Synthesis (GLiTRS): a comprehensive and predictive assessment of the pattern and consequences of insect declines

Lead Research Organisation: UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY
Department Name: Biodiversity (Wallingford)

Abstract

With increasing recognition of the importance of insects, there are growing concerns that insect biodiversity has declined globally, with serious consequences for ecosystem function and services. Yet, gaps in knowledge limit progress in understanding the magnitude and direction of change. Information about insect trends is fragmented, and time-series data are restricted and unrepresentative, both taxonomically and spatially. Moreover, causal links between insect trends and anthropogenic pressures are not well-established. It is, therefore, difficult to evaluate stories about "insectageddon", to understand the ecosystem consequences, to devise mitigation strategies, or predict future trends.

To address the shortfalls, we will bring together diverse sources of information, such as meta-analyses, correlative relationships and expert judgement. GLiTRS will collate these diverse lines of evidence on how insect biodiversity has changed in response to anthropogenic pressures, how responses vary according to functional traits, over space, and across biodiversity metrics (e.g. species abundance, occupancy, richness and biomass), and how insect trends drive further changes (e.g. mediated by interaction networks).

We will integrate these lines of evidence into a Threat-Response model describing trends in insect biodiversity across the globe. The model will be represented in the form of a series of probabilistic statements (a Bayesian belief network) describing relationships between insect biodiversity and anthropogenic pressures.

By challenging this "Threat-Response model" to predict trends for taxa and places where high-quality time series data exist, we will identify insect groups and regions for which indirect data sources are a) sufficient for predicting recent trends, b) inadequate, or c) too uncertain. Knowledge about the predictability of threat-response relationships will allow projections - with uncertainty estimates - of how insect biodiversity has changed globally, across all major taxa, functional groups and biomes.

This global perspective on recent trends will provide the basis for an exploration of the consequences of insect decline for a range of ecosystem functions and services, as well as how biodiversity and ecosystem properties might be affected by plausible scenarios of future environmental change.

GLiTRS is an ambitious and innovative research program: two features are particularly ground-breaking. First, the collation of multiple forms of evidence will permit a truly global perspective on insect declines that is unachievable using conventional approaches. Second, by validating "prior knowledge" (from evidence synthesis) with recent trends, we will assess the degree to which insect declines are predictable, and at what scales.

Publications

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Greenop A (2023) Using functional traits to predict pollination services: A review in Journal of Pollination Ecology

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Latombe G (2024) A kernel integral method to remove biases in estimating trait turnover in Methods in Ecology and Evolution

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Luke S (2023) Grand challenges in entomology: Priorities for action in the coming decades in Insect Conservation and Diversity

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Mancini F (2023) Invertebrate biodiversity continues to decline in cropland. in Proceedings. Biological sciences

 
Description Work within the GLiTRS project has strengthened arguments for the use of predictive modelling to understand and mitigate future biodiversity change. We have been active within GEO BON and other networks in making the case for model-based indicators. GLiTRS has facilitated our contribution to the Grand Challenges in Entomology project, which is proving extremely influential in shaping the strategy of the Royal Entomological Society.
First Year Of Impact 2023
Sector Environment
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description PArticipation in Defra Biodiversity Expert committee
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact The committee was formed to support strategic development of policy within Defra
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sac-register-of-members-interests/defras-science-advisory...
 
Description Toward Predicting the Impact of Environmental change on biodiversity
Amount £249,000 (GBP)
Organisation Joint Nature Conservation Committee 
Sector Private
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2023 
End 03/2025
 
Title Data from: Species-habitat networks reveal conservation implications that other community analyses do not detect 
Description Grassland restoration is an important conservation intervention supporting declining insect pollinators, particularly in threatened calcareous grassland landscapes. While restoration is often assessed using simple diversity or the similarity to a target community metrics, this can fail to represent key aspects of community reconstruction. Here, we compare a new method, species-habitat networks, with techniques previously relied upon to understand the process of pollinator community restoration. The species-habitat network approach reveals details relevant to insect conservation that are not visible using standard measures of species richness, abundance, community similarity or network metrics. For instance, a shared set of butterflies and bumblebees found in ancient extensively managed grassland, the target community for restoration, were more likely to inhabit previously disturbed grassland than recently disturbed or reverting grasslands. We propose that species-habitat networks should be part of the standard analytical toolkit assessing the effectiveness of restoration, particularly for mobile species such as insects. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2023 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact ... 
URL https://datadryad.org/stash/dataset/doi:10.5061/dryad.73n5tb33c
 
Description CEH collaboration with Andy Purvis' group at NHM 
Organisation Natural History Museum
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution We lead the overall project and WPs 1 and 3.
Collaborator Contribution NHM leads WP2
Impact none yet
Start Year 2020
 
Description CEH collaboration with Cang Hui's group at University of Stellenbosch 
Organisation University of Stellenbosch
Country South Africa 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution CEH is overall lead on the project, providing coordination across WPs
Collaborator Contribution Cang Hui is visiting professor, providing theoretical and mathematical expertise to the analysis of insect datasets
Impact none yet
Start Year 2020
 
Description CEH collaboration with Queen Mary University (London) 
Organisation Queen Mary University of London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution CEH leads the overall project and coordinates across Work Packages
Collaborator Contribution QM is leading on elements of WP1 and provides specific expertise on freshwater ecosystems across the project.
Impact none yet
Start Year 2020
 
Description CEH link with Tim Newbold's group at UCL 
Organisation University College London
Department Biosciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution CEH is overall lead for the project and on WP1 and 3
Collaborator Contribution UCL leads WP4 and is very involved in WP2
Impact none yet
Start Year 2020
 
Description EntoGEM 
Organisation University of Nevada
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The GLiTRS team have built a relational database to store insect population time-series. We are providing a storage location for data generated by the EntoGEM team. Together we will create a global database of insect time-series.
Collaborator Contribution the EntoGEM project aims to create a Global Evidence Map (GEM) for insects. This is a database of studies, created from a systematic literature review, on insect population trends. The EntoGEM team have produced GEMs for two insect orders: Odonata and Lepidoptera. They are now in the process of extracting the data for Lepidoptera, which will be stored in the GLiTRS database. The two teams will work together to co-create (with GLiTRS) a meta-analysis of trends for this group.
Impact none yet
Start Year 2022
 
Description Status of Insects: An International Research Coordination Network, funded by the US National Science Foundation 
Organisation Insect Research Systems
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Lynn Dicks is a member of the Steering Group for the Status of Insect RCN, and leads the Working Group on Solutions. In collaboration with the RCN, we wrote a proposal for a Round Table discussion event at the forthcoming International Congress on Conservation Biology. This has been accepted, and will take place July 23-27, 2023, in Kigali, Rwanda. Title: Conservation of small things - how to incorporate insects (and other invertebrates) into the global biodiversity conservation agenda. The format will be six 12-minute presentations, each with 3 minutes for questions, plus a 1.5-hour Round Table discussion chaired by the Symposium Organiser.
Collaborator Contribution RCN is a network of US researchers on insect biodiversity. Members of the RCN organising committee supported our proposal for a Round Table event at a forthcoming international conference, and put forward one speaker.
Impact none yet
Start Year 2022
 
Description University of Cambridge- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology 
Organisation University of Cambridge
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution UKCEH is overall lead on the project, providing coordination across Work Packages
Collaborator Contribution Cambridge leads on the Expert elicitation elements of the project, and on the solutions package. Provides expert entomological expertise.
Impact none yet
Start Year 2020
 
Description toward a Living Planet Index for insects 
Organisation Free University of Amsterdam
Country Netherlands 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The GLiTRS project has assembled a large database of insect population time-series. We are in discussion with the Living Planet Index team at ZSL and scientists at the Free University of Amsterdam to use these data for an version of the Living Planet Index for insects.
Collaborator Contribution We have built a large database of insect population time-series. We have attended a series of meetings with the LPI team to negotiate the terms and timetable for including some analysis of insect population trends as part of the next Living Planet report.
Impact Living Planet Report
Start Year 2023
 
Description toward a Living Planet Index for insects 
Organisation Zoological Society of London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution The GLiTRS project has assembled a large database of insect population time-series. We are in discussion with the Living Planet Index team at ZSL and scientists at the Free University of Amsterdam to use these data for an version of the Living Planet Index for insects.
Collaborator Contribution We have built a large database of insect population time-series. We have attended a series of meetings with the LPI team to negotiate the terms and timetable for including some analysis of insect population trends as part of the next Living Planet report.
Impact Living Planet Report
Start Year 2023
 
Description A talk by Dr Nick Isaac at Edinburgh Science Festival 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Talk presented at the virtual Edinburgh Science Festival 2021, followed by a panel discussion on the causes and consequences of insect declines.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Coauthor of talk at CIEEM (Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk about insect declines to a conference of environmental managers
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Conference presentation on insect declines 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation on evidence for insect declines at the International Congress on Conservation Biology in Kigali, Rwanda
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Evidence to Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, House of Commons 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Oral and written evidence given to the 'Insect decline and UK food security' Inquiry. Event broadcast live on Parliament TV.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://committees.parliament.uk/work/7381/insect-decline-and-uk-food-security/
 
Description Expert elicitation event at Ecological Society of America conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Experts were asked to rank threats to specific insect groups.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Expert elicitation event at International Congress of Entomology 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Event to rank threats to specific insect orders
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Interview for podcast on insect declines 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Interview for podcast on insect declines, 25/7/22
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Interview on Woman's Hour on Neonicotinoids 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Ben Woodcock was interviewed on Woman's Hour (BBC Radio 4) about impact of neonicotinoid pesticides on pollinators
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description TV interview for Countryfile 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact An TV interview for BBC Countryfile about the State of Nature report. The data generated by GLiTRS and the issues addressed in our research project contributed to the information I provided during interview.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Talk at Festival of Pollinators 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Ben Woodcock presented a talk on pollinator declines at POLLINIS - FESTIVAL DES POLLINISATEURS ET DES ABEILLES
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://info.pollinis.org/festival-des-pollinisateurs-groix-2022/
 
Description Talk on insect declines in agricultural systems at ECCB 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Ben Woodcock presented a talk on insect declines in agricultural systems at European Congress on Conservation Biology
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.eccb2022.eu/en/general
 
Description Talk on insect declines to Essex Beekepers association 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Ben Woodcock presented a talk on insect declines at Essex Beekepers association
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Talk on pollinator declines (Inverness) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Ben Woodcock presented a talk on insect declines at Invernesshire Beekepers association
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Talk to West Sussex beekepers 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Ben Woodcock presented a talk on insect declines at West Sussex Beekepers association
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Times Radio interview: Bugs Matter 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Times Radio interview: Bugs Matter, 5/5/22
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022