Systemic environmental risk analysis for threats to UK recovery from COVID-19
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Sch of Biological Sciences
Abstract
UK Recovery from COVID-19 needs to balance the needs of the economy, societal cohesion and health. The Environment is not currently explicit in some framings of national recovery, yet there are a number of major risks involving it that can impact economy, societal cohesion and health over a relatively short timeframe (e.g. <24 months). Our team, combining academics embedded in government (Defra) and a leading research centre for evaluating complexity (CECAN), will develop systems analyses to appraise these risks. We will provide knowledge to inform urgent policy to mitigate these risks and recommend monitoring processes that track system dynamics based on key 'watchpoints' to trigger mitigation actions. Furthermore, we will identify uncertainty levels and critical evidence gaps for targeting research. To achieve this, we will use digital workshops with international academic experts and UK government officials to develop causal loop diagrams that map system relationships where environmental risks affect key elements of UK COVID-19 recovery over a short time horizon. We will focus on three important cases: i) Biosecurity- improving resilience to COVID-19 and a second zoonotic emergence; ii) Improving respiratory health of the UK population; iii) Food security- ensuring resilience of home and international supply chains. We will integrate outputs into current Defra-Cabinet Office interactions to ensure that UK strategies for recovery adequately address systemic risks and, more generally, raise the profile of the need to explicitly appraise and mitigate for complex risk in UK governance, especially in the context of rebuilding the nation during COVID-19.
Publications
Oliver TH
(2022)
A safe and just operating space for human identity: a systems perspective.
in The Lancet. Planetary health
Description | New protocols to appraise systemic risk UK Recovery from COVID-19 needs to balance the needs of the economy, societal cohesion and health. The environment is not currently explicit in some framings of national recovery, yet there are a number of major risks involving it that can impact these areas over a relatively short timeframe (e.g. <24 months). Our team focused on three important cases: i) Biosecurity- improving resilience to COVID-19 and a second zoonotic emergence; ii) Improvi |
Exploitation Route | Currently working with GO-Science on a secondment building on these methods to assess UK exposure and vulnerability to systemic risk to 2050 |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Environment Government Democracy and Justice Security and Diplomacy |
URL | https://www.sysrisk.org.uk/resources/ |
Description | As a result of this SysRisk report, PI Oliver was recruited onto a secondment with the Governemnt Office for Science to help with their project to assess UK resilience to long term risk (April 2022-Oct 2023). https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/resilience-to-long-term-trends-and-transitions-to-2050/resilience-to-long-term-trends-and-transitions-to-2050 This work is also now being used by the Cabinet Office to develop a new set of 'chronic risks' which will complement the acute risks published in the National Security Risk Assessment. Also SysRisk methods and results have been heavily drawn upon by Defra in their Global Catastrophic risk and EmTech projects (personal communication Head of Futures, Phil Tovey, Defra). PI Oliver sits on the expert working groups for these projects. We have further developed the SysRisk methods in a new NERC funded project called EMPOWER Empowering citizen and community adaptation to systemic risks from climate change, https://www.empower-project.org/ Finally, the SysRisk report has influenced a philanthropic funder (the V. Kann Rasmussen foundation), who decided to set up a platform for assessing systemic risk. PI Oliver was recruited as an external reviewer on this proposal and then as an author. The £10M centre has now been funded , hosted by the UN Foundation . https://unfoundation.org/media/new-accelerator-for-systemic-risk-assessment-launches-ruth-richardson-named-executive-director/ Based on SysRisk work, Oliver has been invited to present to UK Climate Security National Foresight Group (Feb 2024), and is starting a new commission with Defra and Cabinet office to lead an assessment of risks to UK food security (Feb-May 2024) |
First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
Sector | Environment,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | Project submission to National Resilience Strategy |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
URL | https://www.sysrisk.org.uk/2021/10/08/national-resilience-strategy-response-to-call-for-evidence-sys... |
Title | Protocols to appraise systemic risk |
Description | Protocols to appraise systemic risk- case studies on air quality, biosecurity and food security. Report with lessons learned and recommendations for policy. Available at: https://www.sysrisk.org.uk/resources/ |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Still ongoing. The stakeholder event was attended by Food standards agency, HM Treasury, Defra, Natural England, Swiss RE, Cabinet Office, Dep for Trade, Gov Wales, Env Agency, Public Health England, Gov Scot, Gov wales, GO-Science, European Environment Agency and several universities PI Tom Oliver invited to join Go-Science on secondment on project Resilience to Long Term Trends to 2050 |
URL | https://www.sysrisk.org.uk/resources/ |
Description | EMPOWER project- a NERC funded project 'Empowering citizen and community adaptation to systemic risks from climate change' |
Organisation | University of Surrey |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I was PI on this new project, collaborating with Nigel Gilbert from Surrey who was a Co-I on SysRisk. We adapted participatory systems mapping methods first developed in the SysRisk project. |
Collaborator Contribution | I was PI on this new project, collaborating with Nigel Gilbert from Surrey who was a Co-I on SysRisk. We adapted participatory systems mapping methods first developed in the SysRisk project. |
Impact | three country reports and a paper in review with Nature Climate Change |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | Appearance on Euronews in relation to systemic risk analysis |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q63d7e1cIso |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q63d7e1cIso |
Description | Article for National Preparedness Commission |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Title: Building better resilience to environmental risks https://nationalpreparednesscommission.uk/2021/09/building-better-resilience-to-environmental-risks/ |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://nationalpreparednesscommission.uk/2021/09/building-better-resilience-to-environmental-risks/ |