Delivering Food Security on Limited Land (DEVIL)

We will examine the challenge of delivering food security now and in the future on limited area, which will entail examining feedback interactions between land use change and food security dynamics. We will use the high resolution, spatially disaggregated global models and databases of soils, land-use, crops and livestock, developed by consortium partners as the basis for the analysis. We will use the global FEEDME model, informed by FAO statistics and nutritional demand, to derive country level dietary demands for food products. We will develop and use a country-level agent based model, that includes economic and sociopolitical constraints on food production and trade between countries, to satisfy the demand for food either locally, or through trade (constrained by international trade statistics), given the soil, crop and livestock resources available. Performance of the modeling system will be tested against current statistics on food (in)security, and spatial data on hotspots of land use change. The system will be considered adequate if it is able to replicate the current status. Once evaluated, the modeling system will be used to examine a range of scenarios including a) production side measures to improve food security, through: i) sustainable intensification (closing the yield gap; improving livestock), ii) redistribution and trade, and b) demand side measures through i) changing diets, ii) reduced waste (pre- and post-harvest). The feedback interactions between these drivers of change and land use, and the feedback to food supply will be examined globally. Additional regional analysis will examine impacts on food security, land use change and selected ecosystem services in three regions that are key for food security and land use change: South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and South America. We anticipate that this work will yield high impact papers and information critical to policy makers, industry and other stakeholders. The project will contribute to Future Earth, CCAFS, the Global Land Project and the Programme for Ecosystem Change and Society.

Methods for engaging with users and exchanging / disseminating data / knowledge / skills: There are five main mechanisms for knowledge and skill exchange, participatory project development, and data dissemination: 1) stakeholder meetings with high level stakeholder group (mainly policy makers, influencers and food chain decision makers), 2) regional stakeholder meetings in South Asia, South America and sub-Saharan Africa with regional stakeholders from production, extension, processing and retail (mainly farm management, best land practices, regional impacts, food processing industry and retailers); 3) provision of extension materials in the appropriate languages to support KE in Asia, South America and Africa; 4) dedicated Summer Schools for Under- and Post-Graduate students and stakeholders from partner institutes and impact study regions; 5) website including links to data and model repository (including meta-data to describe what is available) and all support materials, which will include computer access to data / models and cell-phone web-access to all support materials (more detail below). Identifying the relevant regional stakeholders will be done in close collaboration with the project partners working in South Asia, South America and Africa, but also via the networks already present within the consortium towards policy, industry and NGOs. Summer Schools will be announced internationally, via dedicated list-servers and webpages. Selection of participants will be based on a variety of criteria, including existing expertise, motivation, balanced representation of country of origin, gender and occupation within the world food system. Since food security demands a trans-disciplinary approach to achieve capacity building for viable solutions, stakeholder engagement will be at the core of both Summer Schools. Summer School programs will include lectures, workshops, computer labs, field trips, visits to extension services and companies, link to NGOs and policy, depending on the locations (which will be decided early in the project), and allow ample time for discussions, group work and networking among the participants. Thus, this project aims to build the capacity of the next generation of decision makers who can provide leadership in all issues related to sustainable intensification and food security. An Alumni community will be developed, following the example at the WFSC.