Hydro-JULES: Next generation land surface and hydrological prediction
Lead Research Organisation:
UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY
Department Name: Hydro-climate Risks
Abstract
The major project outcome will be a world-leading integrated terrestrial hydrological model that goes from global weather and local rainfall through the terrestrial hydrological system to flood inundation assessments and their consequent impacts. The Hydro-JULES model and its associated datasets will enable UK science to tackle outstanding research questions in hydrological science and will provide a national resource to support research both specific to the Hydro-JULES project and beyond. Hydro-JULES will provide the UK hydrological and land-surface communities with the model and research infrastructure to tackle the most pressing internationally-important research questions in this field, which include:
1. How do hydrological systems respond to present-day climate variability and how can the impacts of future climate change best be quantified in ungauged locations, in data-sparse regions and under non-stationary conditions?
2. To what extent can new observational and modelling techniques improve our understanding of how extreme precipitation, especially high-intensity convective precipitation, drives flooding?
3. How will changes in land-use and land management affect surface permeability, soil water storage, runoff, river flows and flood inundation?
4. What are the combined probabilities of fluvial, pluvial, coastal and groundwater flooding in response to changes in climate, and can a coupled approach to flood risk estimation quantify those risks more effectively?
5. How will biogeochemical and nutrient cycles respond to current and future variability in the hydrological cycle, especially under conditions of changing climate and land-cover?
6. To what extent can assimilation of observed hydrological states and fluxes (e.g., soil moisture and stream flow) improve hydrological and meteorological predictions, and on what time-scales?
7. Can uncertainty in large-scale hydrological predictions be attributed to specific hydrological processes in order to target future process-based research?
8. What is the sensitivity of Earth system components (e.g., vegetation, carbon cycle, aerosols, land ice, sea ice, ocean circulation and biogeochemistry) to changes in the hydrological cycle; and can enhanced representation of terrestrial hydrology in Earth system models help constrain responses to such changes?
1. How do hydrological systems respond to present-day climate variability and how can the impacts of future climate change best be quantified in ungauged locations, in data-sparse regions and under non-stationary conditions?
2. To what extent can new observational and modelling techniques improve our understanding of how extreme precipitation, especially high-intensity convective precipitation, drives flooding?
3. How will changes in land-use and land management affect surface permeability, soil water storage, runoff, river flows and flood inundation?
4. What are the combined probabilities of fluvial, pluvial, coastal and groundwater flooding in response to changes in climate, and can a coupled approach to flood risk estimation quantify those risks more effectively?
5. How will biogeochemical and nutrient cycles respond to current and future variability in the hydrological cycle, especially under conditions of changing climate and land-cover?
6. To what extent can assimilation of observed hydrological states and fluxes (e.g., soil moisture and stream flow) improve hydrological and meteorological predictions, and on what time-scales?
7. Can uncertainty in large-scale hydrological predictions be attributed to specific hydrological processes in order to target future process-based research?
8. What is the sensitivity of Earth system components (e.g., vegetation, carbon cycle, aerosols, land ice, sea ice, ocean circulation and biogeochemistry) to changes in the hydrological cycle; and can enhanced representation of terrestrial hydrology in Earth system models help constrain responses to such changes?
Planned Impact
Impact is expected to be widespread across policy and industry. Hydro-JULES will help to improve the underlying models and information that informs flood prediction and estimation and should ensure more accurate and timely flood warnings, better flood estimation to inform infrastructure and building design to be resilient to flooding.
Hydro-JULES will be applied and tested in several high-profile case studies in the UK for use in applications of particular stakeholder interest. In the first instance, attention will be paid to the necessary science developments required to enhance hydrological outlooks for the UK. Key links already in place with Defra / EA, the Flood Forecasting Centre and the Met Office's UK Environmental Prediction Programme will be maintained and extended. The stakeholder requirements for these applications will be sought at an early stage in the project. Applications of the coupled modelling system in overseas locations will be supported, where possible, in collaboration with additional funding streams, so that the UK research and academic community can be enabled to offer the greatest possible contribution to overseas development.
We will develop a protocol and demonstrator product to assimilate COSMOS-UK, satellite soil moisture data and river flow data. This work will result in a first-generation near-real-time UK soil moisture data product through blending of model output data, observed data (COSMOS-UK) and satellite data. This novel dataset will provide information on soil moisture drought for agricultural and ecological applications and will offer data on antecedent soil saturation for flood forecasters prior to extreme rainfall. Moreover, the new dataset will enable a range of scientific studies into soil moisture dry-down processes and land-atmosphere feedbacks and coupling, to improve model process descriptions and enhance skill in hydrological simulation. Further applications of more advanced data assimilation techniques, including the use of ensemble Kalman filters and 4-D variational methods for hydrological state updating and adjoint approaches to parameter estimation, will be explored in collaboration with project partners.
Benchmarking and evaluation protocols will be developed to support Earth system modelling applications, in collaboration with NCAS, the UKESM project and with modelling groups in the UK and overseas. The maintenance of clearly-defined model configurations will enable participation in world-leading model inter-comparison programmes including ISIMIP and WCRP GEWEX-coordinated experiments, in addition to the delivery of UK science components in preparation for participation in forthcoming CMIP7 and AR7 experiment cycles. This work package will also develop a procedure for the formal quantification of model uncertainty in large-scale hydrological predictions in order to understand the relative magnitude of uncertainties across model sub-components and to direct further research.
Hydro-JULES will be applied and tested in several high-profile case studies in the UK for use in applications of particular stakeholder interest. In the first instance, attention will be paid to the necessary science developments required to enhance hydrological outlooks for the UK. Key links already in place with Defra / EA, the Flood Forecasting Centre and the Met Office's UK Environmental Prediction Programme will be maintained and extended. The stakeholder requirements for these applications will be sought at an early stage in the project. Applications of the coupled modelling system in overseas locations will be supported, where possible, in collaboration with additional funding streams, so that the UK research and academic community can be enabled to offer the greatest possible contribution to overseas development.
We will develop a protocol and demonstrator product to assimilate COSMOS-UK, satellite soil moisture data and river flow data. This work will result in a first-generation near-real-time UK soil moisture data product through blending of model output data, observed data (COSMOS-UK) and satellite data. This novel dataset will provide information on soil moisture drought for agricultural and ecological applications and will offer data on antecedent soil saturation for flood forecasters prior to extreme rainfall. Moreover, the new dataset will enable a range of scientific studies into soil moisture dry-down processes and land-atmosphere feedbacks and coupling, to improve model process descriptions and enhance skill in hydrological simulation. Further applications of more advanced data assimilation techniques, including the use of ensemble Kalman filters and 4-D variational methods for hydrological state updating and adjoint approaches to parameter estimation, will be explored in collaboration with project partners.
Benchmarking and evaluation protocols will be developed to support Earth system modelling applications, in collaboration with NCAS, the UKESM project and with modelling groups in the UK and overseas. The maintenance of clearly-defined model configurations will enable participation in world-leading model inter-comparison programmes including ISIMIP and WCRP GEWEX-coordinated experiments, in addition to the delivery of UK science components in preparation for participation in forthcoming CMIP7 and AR7 experiment cycles. This work package will also develop a procedure for the formal quantification of model uncertainty in large-scale hydrological predictions in order to understand the relative magnitude of uncertainties across model sub-components and to direct further research.
