NCAS Climate and High Impact Weather
Lead Research Organisation:
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Department Name: UNLISTED
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Publications
Taylor CM
(2022)
"Late-stage" deforestation enhances storm trends in coastal West Africa.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Wainwright C
(2019)
'Eastern African Paradox' rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains
in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
James R
(2023)
A bin microphysics parcel model investigation of secondary ice formation in an idealised shallow convective cloud
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Barton E
(2019)
A case-study of land-atmosphere coupling during monsoon onset in northern India
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Croad H
(2023)
A Climatology of Summer-Time Arctic Cyclones Using a Modified Phase Space
in Geophysical Research Letters
Muetzelfeldt M
(2021)
A climatology of tropical wind shear produced by clustering wind profiles from the Met Office Unified Model (GA7.0)
in Geoscientific Model Development
Zhao Z
(2023)
A clustering-based multi-model ensemble projection of near-term precipitation changes over East China and its uncertainty
in Environmental Research Letters
Jiao J
(2022)
A Comparison of the Midlatitude Nickel and Sodium Layers in the Mesosphere: Observations and Modeling
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Shonk J
(2019)
A double ITCZ phenomenology of wind errors in the equatorial Atlantic in seasonal forecasts with ECMWF models
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Stephan C
(2019)
A Mechanism for the Recently Increased Interdecadal Variability of the Silk Road Pattern
in Journal of Climate
Muñoz C
(2020)
A Midlatitude Climatology and Interannual Variability of 200- and 500-hPa Cut-Off Lows
in Journal of Climate
Silvy Y
(2022)
A modeling framework to understand historical and projected ocean climate change in large coupled ensembles
in Geoscientific Model Development
Gonzalez P
(2021)
A new approach to extended-range multimodel forecasting: Sequential learning algorithms
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Feng X
(2022)
A New Approach to Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Southeast Asia Tropical Cyclone Occurrence
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Coelho C
(2022)
A perspective for advancing climate prediction services in Brazil
in Climate Resilience and Sustainability
Bhatia K
(2022)
A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification.
in Nature communications
Zhang R
(2019)
A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts
in Reviews of Geophysics
Kuttippurath J
(2023)
A seasonal OH minimum region over the Indian Ocean?
in Atmospheric Environment
Dhomse S
(2022)
A single-peak-structured solar cycle signal in stratospheric ozone based on Microwave Limb Sounder observations and model simulations
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Bröcker J
(2023)
A statistical perspective on the signal-to-noise paradox
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Description | The programme has been influential in a number of different areas relating to the science of climate and high-impact weather, by furthering our understanding of: 1. Weather forecasting of storms and extreme precipitation in the UK and Europe. 2. Improving subseasonal to seasonal forecast skill for European weather, El Nino, and the Indian Summer Monsoon. 3. The projected climate change responses of heat waves, tropical cyclones, mid-latitude storms, monsoon rainfall, and anticyclonic blocking. 4. The variability and predictability of convective storms and the processes controlling the development of convection (e.g. aerosol-cloud interactions). |
Exploitation Route | The science theme covers a broad range of topics in the area of Climate and High Impact Weather. Key ways that others may take the outcomes forward include: 1. Academics: Working in the area of environmental impacts and environmental science. 2. Government, NGOs and industry: Informing UK and global policy on natural hazards and climate change and helping users assess key environmental risks 3. Operational forecast centres: Results will help to improve weather and subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts on timescales of days to months. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Energy Environment Financial Services and Management Consultancy Healthcare Government Democracy and Justice |
URL | https://ncas.ac.uk/our-science/climate-high-impact-weather/ |
Description | This submission relates to the NCAS research programme on Climate and High-Impact Weather. The outputs of the NCAS science theme have resulted in impacts in a wide range of areas, which include: 1. International assessments, the most prominent example of which is contributing to and reviewing the next IPCC assessment on climate change. 2. Research has had substantial impact on NGOs and UK Government Departments (especially DFID/FCOD). This includes tailoring meteorological forecast information for a range of humanitarian agencies in anticipation of, and in response to, impending monthly and seasonal-scale precipitation and weather extremes such as El Nino and La Nina. 3. Outputs have also been used develop risk assessment tools in the private sector and operational forecast centres. Examples include an insurance risk models of correlated wind and flood risk in the UK and a tool to help the UK Met Office assess sting-jet precursors in weather forecasts of severe windstorms. |
First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | IPCC AR6 Lead Author / Department for Business, Innovation and Skills; International Organisations/Committees; UNFCCC |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | Climate Canopy exhibit at Leeds Light Night |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The National Centre for Atmospheric Science, in collaboration with artist Alison Smith, created a sensory art installation to encourage climate and community action in the face of global environmental challenges. The suspended exhibit, titled Climate Canopy, uses light and recycled materials to display the story of global warming through colour and touch. Climate Canopy was exhibited for the first time at Leeds Light Night on Thursday 14th and Friday 15th October 2021, at the Carriageworks Theatre. Leeds Light Night is a free arts and light festival that transforms some of the city's most recognizable spaces into spectacular artworks and captivating performances. Leeds Light Night is the UK's largest annual arts and light festival, boasting 150,000 visitors each year. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Climate Canopy sculpture installed at United Nations Climate Change Conference - COP26 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The science-art light installation Climate Canopy was exhibited for world leaders at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, in Glasgow. The suspended structure illuminated tens of thousands of passing delegates in the Blue Zone, displaying the history of global temperature rise, at one of the most decisive events in our lifetime. The display, created by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Leeds-based artist Alison Smith, is formed from coloured stripes of light which represent 170 year of global temperature data. There are 26 stripes in total, inspired by the warming stripes created by Professor Ed Hawkins, for COP26. As delegates walked under the sculpture, the lights transitioned from blue to red, reflecting the growing impacts of climate change in virtually every region worldwide. Displaying the art installation at the United Nations conference sent a powerful message about the way that art and science can work together to engage people in environmental issues. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Earth System and Climate Projection storyboard videos for COP26 public exhibition in Glasgow |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Videos about climate change modelling for a Green Zone COP26 public exhibition in Glasgow, to support the Natural Environmental Research Council stand |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | International Piano Festival / Leeds Conservatoire event |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The National Centre for Atmospheric Science collaborated with visual artist Alison Smith and composers at Leeds Conservatoire, to create Turn the Tide - an interactive sculpture accompanied by several new pieces of music. Turn the Tide weaves together a broad ensemble of climate science, visual and performing arts, and local people to inspire creative action on climate change. Turn the Tide formed part of the Leeds International Piano Competition, and featured on the community-based Piano Trail, with a dedicated free and public performance on Friday 10th September at midday in Leeds city centre. Alison's installation features an upcycled upright piano and a crescendo of colourful recycled plastics and animated lights, which swell in stripes over a wave-like structure covering the piano's lid and upper panel. The sculpture's lights and stripes are arranged in a way that depict the change in global temperatures over the past 180 years. To visualise the changes, Professor Ed Hawkins from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading created a set of warming stripes, which influenced the design of Alison's piano piece. Student composers at Leeds Conservatoire, a multidisciplinary music and performing arts college, were commissioned to produce pieces of music that could be played on, or accompany, the sculptural piano. The bespoke arrangements take inspiration from the environment and our social responsibility to help the planet. Turn the Tide encouraged people in Leeds (and via social media) to think about society and the future challenges and choices of COP26. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Young people's club visit (Leeds) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Daniel Grosvenor, an NCAS Researcher in Aerosol-Climate Modelling based at the University of Leeds, attended the Horsforth Cubs group and talked to the young members about clouds, which sparked questions and conversation. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |