NCAS Climate and High Impact Weather
Lead Research Organisation:
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Department Name: UNLISTED
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Publications
Harvey B
(2020)
The Response of the Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks and Jet Streams to Climate Change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Climate Models
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Vessey A
(2023)
The Risk of Synoptic-Scale Arctic Cyclones to Shipping
Croad H
(2023)
The role of boundary layer processes in summer-time Arctic cyclones
in Weather and Climate Dynamics
Menon A
(2021)
The role of mid-tropospheric moistening and land-surface wetting in the progression of the 2016 Indian monsoon
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Craig P
(2021)
The role of teleconnection patterns in the variability and trends of growing season indices across Europe
in International Journal of Climatology
Hunt K
(2019)
The Role of the Subtropical Jet in Deficient Winter Precipitation Across the Mid-Holocene Indus Basin
in Geophysical Research Letters
Strommen K
(2019)
The Sensitivity of Euro-Atlantic Regimes to Model Horizontal Resolution.
in Geophysical research letters
Woodward S
(2022)
The simulation of mineral dust in the United Kingdom Earth System Model UKESM1
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Israelsson J
(2020)
The spatial correlation structure of rainfall at the local scale over southern Ghana
in Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Patterson M
(2022)
The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperature
in Environmental Research Letters
Barrett P
(2020)
The structure of turbulence and mixed-phase cloud microphysics in a highly supercooled altocumulus cloud
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Burton R
(2020)
The Use of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model to Simulate Near-Field Volcanic Plumes
in Atmosphere
Darbyshire E
(2019)
The vertical distribution of biomass burning pollution over tropical South America from aircraft in situ measurements during SAMBBA
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Valdivieso M
(2019)
Thunderstorm occurrence at ten sites across Great Britain over 1884-1993
in Geoscience Data Journal
Boult V
(2022)
Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context
in Climate Risk Management
Cimini D
(2020)
Towards the profiling of the atmospheric boundary layer at European scale-introducing the COST Action PROBE
in Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology
Conroy A
(2023)
Track forecast: Operational capability and new techniques - Summary from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-10)
in Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Suitters C
(2023)
Transient anticyclonic eddies and their relationship to atmospheric block persistence
in Weather and Climate Dynamics
Stevenson D
(2020)
Trends in global tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime since 1850 from AerChemMIP
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Fletcher J
(2023)
Tropical Africa's First Testbed for High-Impact Weather Forecasting and Nowcasting
in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Tomassini L
(2022)
Tropical moist convection as an important driver of Atlantic Hadley circulation variability
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Shipley D
(2021)
Two-fluid single-column modelling of Rayleigh-Bénard convection as a step towards multi-fluid modelling of atmospheric convection
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Senior CA
(2020)
U.K. Community Earth System Modeling for CMIP6.
in Journal of advances in modeling earth systems
Mulcahy J
(2023)
UKESM1.1: development and evaluation of an updated configuration of the UK Earth System Model
in Geoscientific Model Development
Sellar A
(2019)
UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U.K. Earth System Model
in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Shonk J
(2020)
Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Monerie P
(2023)
Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions
in Earth's Future
Tietsche S
(2023)
Underestimation of Arctic warming trends in sub-seasonal forecasts
Braghiere R
(2019)
Underestimation of Global Photosynthesis in Earth System Models Due to Representation of Vegetation Structure
in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Description | The programme has been influential in a number of different areas relating to the science of climate and high-impact weather, by furthering our understanding of: 1. Weather forecasting of storms and extreme precipitation in the UK and Europe. 2. Improving subseasonal to seasonal forecast skill for European weather, El Nino, and the Indian Summer Monsoon. 3. The projected climate change responses of heat waves, tropical cyclones, mid-latitude storms, monsoon rainfall, and anticyclonic blocking. 4. The variability and predictability of convective storms and the processes controlling the development of convection (e.g. aerosol-cloud interactions). |
Exploitation Route | The science theme covers a broad range of topics in the area of Climate and High Impact Weather. Key ways that others may take the outcomes forward include: 1. Academics: Working in the area of environmental impacts and environmental science. 2. Government, NGOs and industry: Informing UK and global policy on natural hazards and climate change and helping users assess key environmental risks 3. Operational forecast centres: Results will help to improve weather and subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts on timescales of days to months. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Energy Environment Financial Services and Management Consultancy Healthcare Government Democracy and Justice |
URL | https://ncas.ac.uk/our-science/climate-high-impact-weather/ |
Description | This submission relates to the NCAS research programme on Climate and High-Impact Weather. The outputs of the NCAS science theme have resulted in impacts in a wide range of areas, which include: 1. International assessments, the most prominent example of which is contributing to and reviewing the next IPCC assessment on climate change. 2. Research has had substantial impact on NGOs and UK Government Departments (especially DFID/FCOD). This includes tailoring meteorological forecast information for a range of humanitarian agencies in anticipation of, and in response to, impending monthly and seasonal-scale precipitation and weather extremes such as El Nino and La Nina. 3. Outputs have also been used develop risk assessment tools in the private sector and operational forecast centres. Examples include an insurance risk models of correlated wind and flood risk in the UK and a tool to help the UK Met Office assess sting-jet precursors in weather forecasts of severe windstorms. |
First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | IPCC AR6 Lead Author / Department for Business, Innovation and Skills; International Organisations/Committees; UNFCCC |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | Climate Canopy exhibit at Leeds Light Night |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The National Centre for Atmospheric Science, in collaboration with artist Alison Smith, created a sensory art installation to encourage climate and community action in the face of global environmental challenges. The suspended exhibit, titled Climate Canopy, uses light and recycled materials to display the story of global warming through colour and touch. Climate Canopy was exhibited for the first time at Leeds Light Night on Thursday 14th and Friday 15th October 2021, at the Carriageworks Theatre. Leeds Light Night is a free arts and light festival that transforms some of the city's most recognizable spaces into spectacular artworks and captivating performances. Leeds Light Night is the UK's largest annual arts and light festival, boasting 150,000 visitors each year. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Climate Canopy sculpture installed at United Nations Climate Change Conference - COP26 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The science-art light installation Climate Canopy was exhibited for world leaders at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, in Glasgow. The suspended structure illuminated tens of thousands of passing delegates in the Blue Zone, displaying the history of global temperature rise, at one of the most decisive events in our lifetime. The display, created by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Leeds-based artist Alison Smith, is formed from coloured stripes of light which represent 170 year of global temperature data. There are 26 stripes in total, inspired by the warming stripes created by Professor Ed Hawkins, for COP26. As delegates walked under the sculpture, the lights transitioned from blue to red, reflecting the growing impacts of climate change in virtually every region worldwide. Displaying the art installation at the United Nations conference sent a powerful message about the way that art and science can work together to engage people in environmental issues. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Earth System and Climate Projection storyboard videos for COP26 public exhibition in Glasgow |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Videos about climate change modelling for a Green Zone COP26 public exhibition in Glasgow, to support the Natural Environmental Research Council stand |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | International Piano Festival / Leeds Conservatoire event |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The National Centre for Atmospheric Science collaborated with visual artist Alison Smith and composers at Leeds Conservatoire, to create Turn the Tide - an interactive sculpture accompanied by several new pieces of music. Turn the Tide weaves together a broad ensemble of climate science, visual and performing arts, and local people to inspire creative action on climate change. Turn the Tide formed part of the Leeds International Piano Competition, and featured on the community-based Piano Trail, with a dedicated free and public performance on Friday 10th September at midday in Leeds city centre. Alison's installation features an upcycled upright piano and a crescendo of colourful recycled plastics and animated lights, which swell in stripes over a wave-like structure covering the piano's lid and upper panel. The sculpture's lights and stripes are arranged in a way that depict the change in global temperatures over the past 180 years. To visualise the changes, Professor Ed Hawkins from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading created a set of warming stripes, which influenced the design of Alison's piano piece. Student composers at Leeds Conservatoire, a multidisciplinary music and performing arts college, were commissioned to produce pieces of music that could be played on, or accompany, the sculptural piano. The bespoke arrangements take inspiration from the environment and our social responsibility to help the planet. Turn the Tide encouraged people in Leeds (and via social media) to think about society and the future challenges and choices of COP26. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Young people's club visit (Leeds) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Daniel Grosvenor, an NCAS Researcher in Aerosol-Climate Modelling based at the University of Leeds, attended the Horsforth Cubs group and talked to the young members about clouds, which sparked questions and conversation. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |