NCAS Climate and High Impact Weather
Lead Research Organisation:
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Department Name: UNLISTED
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Publications
Lopez-Villalobos C
(2021)
Effects of wind power spectrum analysis over resource assessment
in Renewable Energy
Crook J
(2023)
Effects on early monsoon rainfall in West Africa due to recent deforestation in a convection-permitting ensemble
in Weather and Climate Dynamics
Samset B
(2019)
Emerging Asian aerosol patterns
in Nature Geoscience
Kendon EJ
(2019)
Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale.
in Nature communications
Lin S
(2024)
Enhanced Impacts of ENSO on the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon Under Global Warming and Associated Mechanisms
in Geophysical Research Letters
Lee R
(2019)
ENSO Modulation of MJO Teleconnections to the North Atlantic and Europe
in Geophysical Research Letters
Feng X
(2023)
Equatorial waves as useful precursors to tropical cyclone occurrence and intensification.
in Nature communications
Hawkins E
(2023)
ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world
in Earth System Dynamics
Stevens B
(2020)
EUREC<sup>4</sup>A
McCusker G
(2023)
Evaluating Arctic clouds modelled with the Unified Model and Integrated Forecasting System
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Yool A
(2021)
Evaluating the physical and biogeochemical state of the global ocean component of UKESM1 in CMIP6 historical simulations
in Geoscientific Model Development
Hardacre C
(2021)
Evaluation of SO<sub>2</sub>, SO<sub>4</sub><sup>2-</sup> and an updated SO<sub>2</sub> dry deposition parameterization in the United Kingdom Earth System Model
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Endris H
(2021)
Evaluation of the Skill of Monthly Precipitation Forecasts from Global Prediction Systems over the Greater Horn of Africa
in Weather and Forecasting
MartÃnez-Alvarado O
(2020)
Examining model error in potential temperature and potential vorticity weather forecasts at different lead times
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Hardy S
(2023)
Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool
in Weather and Climate Dynamics
Hirons L
(2023)
Experiences of co-producing sub-seasonal forecast products for agricultural application in Kenya and Ghana
in Weather
Baker A
(2022)
Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in a Multiresolution Ensemble of Atmosphere-Only and Fully Coupled Global Climate Models
in Journal of Climate
Wainwright C
(2020)
Extreme rainfall in East Africa, October 2019-January 2020 and context under future climate change
in Weather
Jiang X
(2020)
Fifty Years of Research on the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Progress, Challenges, and Perspectives
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Courtier B
(2022)
First Observations of G-Band Radar Doppler Spectra
in Geophysical Research Letters
Wu F
(2022)
First Simultaneous Lidar Observations of Thermosphere-Ionosphere Sporadic Ni and Na (TISNi and TISNa) Layers (~105-120 km) Over Beijing (40.42°N, 116.02°E)
in Geophysical Research Letters
Shaw J
(2023)
Flaring efficiencies and NO x emission ratios measured for offshore oil and gas facilities in the North Sea
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Chevuturi A
(2021)
Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)
in Climate Dynamics
Boult VL
(2023)
Forecast-based action for conservation.
in Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Leach NJ
(2021)
Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Chevuturi A
(2021)
Forecasting annual maximum water level for Negro River at Manaus
Chevuturi A
(2021)
Forecasting annual maximum water level for the Negro River at Manaus
in Climate Resilience and Sustainability
Chevuturi A
(2023)
Forecasting annual maximum water level for the Negro River at Manaus using dynamical seasonal predictions
in Climate Services
Phadtare J
(2022)
Froude-number-based rainfall regimes over the Western Ghats mountains of India
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Zhang L
(2021)
Future changes in Beijing haze events under different anthropogenic aerosol emission scenarios
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Wainwright C
(2021)
Future Changes in Seasonality in East Africa from Regional Simulations with Explicit and Parameterized Convection
in Journal of Climate
Baker A
(2022)
Global decline in frequency
in Nature Climate Change
Shi J
(2024)
Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves
in Nature Communications
| Description | The programme has been influential in a number of different areas relating to the science of climate and high-impact weather, by furthering our understanding of: 1. Weather forecasting of storms and extreme precipitation in the UK and Europe. 2. Improving subseasonal to seasonal forecast skill for European weather, El Nino, and the Indian Summer Monsoon. 3. The projected climate change responses of heat waves, tropical cyclones, mid-latitude storms, monsoon rainfall, and anticyclonic blocking. 4. The variability and predictability of convective storms and the processes controlling the development of convection (e.g. aerosol-cloud interactions). |
| Exploitation Route | The science theme covers a broad range of topics in the area of Climate and High Impact Weather. Key ways that others may take the outcomes forward include: 1. Academics: Working in the area of environmental impacts and environmental science. 2. Government, NGOs and industry: Informing UK and global policy on natural hazards and climate change and helping users assess key environmental risks 3. Operational forecast centres: Results will help to improve weather and subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts on timescales of days to months. |
| Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Energy Environment Financial Services and Management Consultancy Healthcare Government Democracy and Justice |
| URL | https://ncas.ac.uk/our-science/climate-high-impact-weather/ |
| Description | This submission relates to the NCAS research programme on Climate and High-Impact Weather. The outputs of the NCAS science theme have resulted in impacts in a wide range of areas, which include: 1. International assessments, the most prominent example of which is contributing to and reviewing the next IPCC assessment on climate change. 2. Research has had substantial impact on NGOs and UK Government Departments (especially DFID/FCOD). This includes tailoring meteorological forecast information for a range of humanitarian agencies in anticipation of, and in response to, impending monthly and seasonal-scale precipitation and weather extremes such as El Nino and La Nina. 3. Outputs have also been used develop risk assessment tools in the private sector and operational forecast centres. Examples include an insurance risk models of correlated wind and flood risk in the UK and a tool to help the UK Met Office assess sting-jet precursors in weather forecasts of severe windstorms. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
| Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
| Description | IPCC AR6 Lead Author / Department for Business, Innovation and Skills; International Organisations/Committees; UNFCCC |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Description | Climate Canopy exhibit at Leeds Light Night |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | The National Centre for Atmospheric Science, in collaboration with artist Alison Smith, created a sensory art installation to encourage climate and community action in the face of global environmental challenges. The suspended exhibit, titled Climate Canopy, uses light and recycled materials to display the story of global warming through colour and touch. Climate Canopy was exhibited for the first time at Leeds Light Night on Thursday 14th and Friday 15th October 2021, at the Carriageworks Theatre. Leeds Light Night is a free arts and light festival that transforms some of the city's most recognizable spaces into spectacular artworks and captivating performances. Leeds Light Night is the UK's largest annual arts and light festival, boasting 150,000 visitors each year. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Climate Canopy sculpture installed at United Nations Climate Change Conference - COP26 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | The science-art light installation Climate Canopy was exhibited for world leaders at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, in Glasgow. The suspended structure illuminated tens of thousands of passing delegates in the Blue Zone, displaying the history of global temperature rise, at one of the most decisive events in our lifetime. The display, created by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Leeds-based artist Alison Smith, is formed from coloured stripes of light which represent 170 year of global temperature data. There are 26 stripes in total, inspired by the warming stripes created by Professor Ed Hawkins, for COP26. As delegates walked under the sculpture, the lights transitioned from blue to red, reflecting the growing impacts of climate change in virtually every region worldwide. Displaying the art installation at the United Nations conference sent a powerful message about the way that art and science can work together to engage people in environmental issues. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Earth System and Climate Projection storyboard videos for COP26 public exhibition in Glasgow |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Videos about climate change modelling for a Green Zone COP26 public exhibition in Glasgow, to support the Natural Environmental Research Council stand |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | International Piano Festival / Leeds Conservatoire event |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | The National Centre for Atmospheric Science collaborated with visual artist Alison Smith and composers at Leeds Conservatoire, to create Turn the Tide - an interactive sculpture accompanied by several new pieces of music. Turn the Tide weaves together a broad ensemble of climate science, visual and performing arts, and local people to inspire creative action on climate change. Turn the Tide formed part of the Leeds International Piano Competition, and featured on the community-based Piano Trail, with a dedicated free and public performance on Friday 10th September at midday in Leeds city centre. Alison's installation features an upcycled upright piano and a crescendo of colourful recycled plastics and animated lights, which swell in stripes over a wave-like structure covering the piano's lid and upper panel. The sculpture's lights and stripes are arranged in a way that depict the change in global temperatures over the past 180 years. To visualise the changes, Professor Ed Hawkins from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading created a set of warming stripes, which influenced the design of Alison's piano piece. Student composers at Leeds Conservatoire, a multidisciplinary music and performing arts college, were commissioned to produce pieces of music that could be played on, or accompany, the sculptural piano. The bespoke arrangements take inspiration from the environment and our social responsibility to help the planet. Turn the Tide encouraged people in Leeds (and via social media) to think about society and the future challenges and choices of COP26. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Young people's club visit (Leeds) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Daniel Grosvenor, an NCAS Researcher in Aerosol-Climate Modelling based at the University of Leeds, attended the Horsforth Cubs group and talked to the young members about clouds, which sparked questions and conversation. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |