NCAS Climate and High Impact Weather
Lead Research Organisation:
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Department Name: UNLISTED
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Publications
Joshi M
(2023)
The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends
in Earth System Dynamics
Dhomse S
(2021)
ML-TOMCAT: machine-learning-based satellite-corrected global stratospheric ozone profile data set from a chemical transport model
in Earth System Science Data
Bloomfield H
(2021)
Sub-seasonal forecasts of demand and wind power and solar power generation for 28 European countries
in Earth System Science Data
Monerie P
(2023)
Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions
in Earth's Future
Dittus A
(2021)
Drivers of Recent North Pacific Decadal Variability: The Role of Aerosol Forcing
in Earth's Future
Mattu K
(2022)
The impact of tropical cyclones on potential offshore wind farms
in Energy for Sustainable Development
Lopez-Villalobos C
(2022)
Analysis of the influence of the wind speed profile on wind power production
in Energy Reports
Hallam S
(2023)
The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land
in Environmental Research Communications
Tian F
(2019)
Projected near term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and its uncertainty
in Environmental Research Letters
Black E
(2020)
Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study
in Environmental Research Letters
Tan Y
(2023)
Storm surge variability and prediction from ENSO and tropical cyclones
in Environmental Research Letters
Zhao Z
(2023)
A clustering-based multi-model ensemble projection of near-term precipitation changes over East China and its uncertainty
in Environmental Research Letters
Patterson M
(2022)
The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperature
in Environmental Research Letters
Bulgin C
(2023)
Dynamic sea-level changes and potential implications for storm surges in the UK: a storylines perspective
in Environmental Research Letters
Guo Y
(2020)
Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific
in Environmental Research Letters
Huang W
(2020)
Weather regimes and patterns associated with temperature-related excess mortality in the UK: a pathway to sub-seasonal risk forecasting
in Environmental Research Letters
Van Der Wiel K
(2019)
The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand
in Environmental Research Letters
Luo F
(2020)
Projected near-term changes of temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissions
in Environmental Research Letters
Dosio A
(2020)
A tale of two futures: contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models
in Environmental Research Letters
Monerie P
(2023)
CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability
in Environmental Research Letters
Taylor C
(2022)
Nowcasting tracks of severe convective storms in West Africa from observations of land surface state
in Environmental Research Letters
King A
(2023)
Climate change emergence over people's lifetimes
in Environmental Research: Climate
Lawal K
(2021)
Progress and Challenges of Demand-Led Co-Produced Sub-Seasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Climate Forecasts in Nigeria
in Frontiers in Climate
Black E
(2023)
Application of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture forecasts for planting date decision support in Africa
in Frontiers in Climate
Weisheimer A
(2022)
Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century.
in Geophysical research letters
Description | The programme has been influential in a number of different areas relating to the science of climate and high-impact weather, by furthering our understanding of: 1. Weather forecasting of storms and extreme precipitation in the UK and Europe. 2. Improving subseasonal to seasonal forecast skill for European weather, El Nino, and the Indian Summer Monsoon. 3. The projected climate change responses of heat waves, tropical cyclones, mid-latitude storms, monsoon rainfall, and anticyclonic blocking. 4. The variability and predictability of convective storms and the processes controlling the development of convection (e.g. aerosol-cloud interactions). |
Exploitation Route | The science theme covers a broad range of topics in the area of Climate and High Impact Weather. Key ways that others may take the outcomes forward include: 1. Academics: Working in the area of environmental impacts and environmental science. 2. Government, NGOs and industry: Informing UK and global policy on natural hazards and climate change and helping users assess key environmental risks 3. Operational forecast centres: Results will help to improve weather and subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts on timescales of days to months. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Energy Environment Financial Services and Management Consultancy Healthcare Government Democracy and Justice |
URL | https://ncas.ac.uk/our-science/climate-high-impact-weather/ |
Description | This submission relates to the NCAS research programme on Climate and High-Impact Weather. The outputs of the NCAS science theme have resulted in impacts in a wide range of areas, which include: 1. International assessments, the most prominent example of which is contributing to and reviewing the next IPCC assessment on climate change. 2. Research has had substantial impact on NGOs and UK Government Departments (especially DFID/FCOD). This includes tailoring meteorological forecast information for a range of humanitarian agencies in anticipation of, and in response to, impending monthly and seasonal-scale precipitation and weather extremes such as El Nino and La Nina. 3. Outputs have also been used develop risk assessment tools in the private sector and operational forecast centres. Examples include an insurance risk models of correlated wind and flood risk in the UK and a tool to help the UK Met Office assess sting-jet precursors in weather forecasts of severe windstorms. |
First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | IPCC AR6 Lead Author / Department for Business, Innovation and Skills; International Organisations/Committees; UNFCCC |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | Climate Canopy exhibit at Leeds Light Night |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The National Centre for Atmospheric Science, in collaboration with artist Alison Smith, created a sensory art installation to encourage climate and community action in the face of global environmental challenges. The suspended exhibit, titled Climate Canopy, uses light and recycled materials to display the story of global warming through colour and touch. Climate Canopy was exhibited for the first time at Leeds Light Night on Thursday 14th and Friday 15th October 2021, at the Carriageworks Theatre. Leeds Light Night is a free arts and light festival that transforms some of the city's most recognizable spaces into spectacular artworks and captivating performances. Leeds Light Night is the UK's largest annual arts and light festival, boasting 150,000 visitors each year. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Climate Canopy sculpture installed at United Nations Climate Change Conference - COP26 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The science-art light installation Climate Canopy was exhibited for world leaders at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, in Glasgow. The suspended structure illuminated tens of thousands of passing delegates in the Blue Zone, displaying the history of global temperature rise, at one of the most decisive events in our lifetime. The display, created by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Leeds-based artist Alison Smith, is formed from coloured stripes of light which represent 170 year of global temperature data. There are 26 stripes in total, inspired by the warming stripes created by Professor Ed Hawkins, for COP26. As delegates walked under the sculpture, the lights transitioned from blue to red, reflecting the growing impacts of climate change in virtually every region worldwide. Displaying the art installation at the United Nations conference sent a powerful message about the way that art and science can work together to engage people in environmental issues. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Earth System and Climate Projection storyboard videos for COP26 public exhibition in Glasgow |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Videos about climate change modelling for a Green Zone COP26 public exhibition in Glasgow, to support the Natural Environmental Research Council stand |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | International Piano Festival / Leeds Conservatoire event |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The National Centre for Atmospheric Science collaborated with visual artist Alison Smith and composers at Leeds Conservatoire, to create Turn the Tide - an interactive sculpture accompanied by several new pieces of music. Turn the Tide weaves together a broad ensemble of climate science, visual and performing arts, and local people to inspire creative action on climate change. Turn the Tide formed part of the Leeds International Piano Competition, and featured on the community-based Piano Trail, with a dedicated free and public performance on Friday 10th September at midday in Leeds city centre. Alison's installation features an upcycled upright piano and a crescendo of colourful recycled plastics and animated lights, which swell in stripes over a wave-like structure covering the piano's lid and upper panel. The sculpture's lights and stripes are arranged in a way that depict the change in global temperatures over the past 180 years. To visualise the changes, Professor Ed Hawkins from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading created a set of warming stripes, which influenced the design of Alison's piano piece. Student composers at Leeds Conservatoire, a multidisciplinary music and performing arts college, were commissioned to produce pieces of music that could be played on, or accompany, the sculptural piano. The bespoke arrangements take inspiration from the environment and our social responsibility to help the planet. Turn the Tide encouraged people in Leeds (and via social media) to think about society and the future challenges and choices of COP26. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Young people's club visit (Leeds) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Daniel Grosvenor, an NCAS Researcher in Aerosol-Climate Modelling based at the University of Leeds, attended the Horsforth Cubs group and talked to the young members about clouds, which sparked questions and conversation. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |