An Investigation into the Provision of Energy Services and Energy Efficiency
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Cambridge
Department Name: Engineering
Abstract
My research will be in the EPSRC research area of Energy Efficiency. Particular importance will be placed upon the quantification and assessment of energy services and studying their provision by technical devices along the energy chain (from primary energy, final energy to useful energy and the final link in the chain which is the energy service). I will consider how societies demand for energy services is likely to change and what the main drivers for this demand are. I will also be studying 'passive systems' (buildings, vehicles etc.) which convert useful energy into energy services (thermal comfort, transport, illumination). This will give greater insight into how Greenhouse Gas emissions are likely to change due demand for energy and energy efficiency improvements in passive systems.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
| Jonathan Cullen (Primary Supervisor) | |
| Matteo Craglia (Student) |
Studentship Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP/N509620/1 | 01/10/2016 | 30/09/2022 | |||
| 1795958 | Studentship | EP/N509620/1 | 01/10/2016 | 31/05/2020 | Matteo Craglia |
| Description | The aim of this thesis is to estimate the extent to which future technical improvements might be offset by consumer trends, and the risks they pose to reducing CO2 emissions. Firstly, technical efficiency improvements in vehicles over the past two decades are quantified, using driver-reported data for the first time. This is important as vehicle fuel consumption reported by drivers on the road is found to be ˜35% higher than official tested values in 2017-18. The analysis shows that technical improvements had the potential to reduce fuel consumption by 1.8 L/100km between 2001 and 2018. However, two thirds of this potential was offset by the increasing size and power of vehicles. Finally, the introduction of new EU vehicle efficiency regulations in 2008/09 is found to have had little effect at stimulating the rate of real technical efficiency improvements in British vehicles. If efficiency improvements stimulate drivers to travel more, due to lower running costs, potential emissions reductions from technical improvements may be further offset. Past estimates of the magnitude of this effect, known as the Rebound Effect, have varied widely, partly due to data constraints and a reliance upon highly aggregated government statistics. The analysis of this thesis instead uses a novel dataset of over 275 million vehicle road-worthiness tests. Results show that the Rebound Effect in Great Britain is small, with magnitude 4.6%, meaning efficiency improvements are unlikely to greatly stimulate increased mileage. Having quantified the extent to which technical efficiency improvements in vehicles have been offset by consumer trends in the recent past, the analysis then explores their future role. A range of technology and policy actions can be put in place to reduce carbon emissions, this thesis aims to prioritise between them, based upon their likely impact and uncertainty. Formal sensitivity analysis techniques are used for the first time to determine the relative importance of factors affecting future emissions from passenger vehicles. The findings show that over 80% of the uncertainty in future cumulative CO2 emissions can be attributed to uncertainty in electric vehicle uptake and vehicle size and power. These variables are therefore of primary importance for transport policy makers. The analysis also highlights variables of comparatively low importance; these include the carbon intensity of the electricity grid, the share of hybrid electric vehicles, the magnitude of the Rebound Effect and the rate of incremental improvements within powertrain technologies. The core contribution of this thesis is to compare efforts to improve the technical efficiency of vehicles, with the impacts of consumer trends and factors affecting future transport emissions. The majority of potential emissions savings from engineering improvements in the past two decades have been lost, strong policy action is required to avoid this trend continuing in future. |
| Exploitation Route | The thesis developed new methods to estimate technical improvements in vehicles and to estimate their impact on future emissions levels. These methods were used to test the effectiveness of policy measures in the UK but future work could apply them to other countries enabling comparisons with the UK. Furthermore, the methods are by no means limited to vehicles however and can be applied to a range of sectors such as industry and buildings to estimate future emissions. Further detailed suggestions for future work are detailed extensively in the thesis. |
| Sectors | Energy,Environment,Transport |