Seasonal Forecasts of East African Rainfall
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: School of Earth and Environment
Abstract
This project will improve understanding of East African droughts and heavy rainfall events, evaluate state-of-the-art seasonal weather forecasts and understand sources of forecast error, enabling improved predictions for a region that is extremely vulnerable to variability in rainfall.
There are a number of ways the project could evolve, according to the particular research interests of the student. This will include:
- An evaluation of the GloSea seasonal forecast system over East Africa using satellite-based observations of precipitation and cloud.
- Focus on rainfall extremes, i.e. floods and drought. An assessment of the ability of the seasonal forecast system to predict the drought in 2011 and the heavy rainfall events in 2014 and 2015. Do any of the ensemble members predict these events? More generally, how extreme can anomalies in rainfall be in the seasonal forecasts and is there evidence that the forecasts can predict unprecedented events?
- Comparison of the seasonal forecast system with more traditional statistical forecast methods (e.g. Mutai et al. 1998). What is the added value of the GloSea forecasting system?
- Run additional model case studies or sensitivity tests to better understand key rainfall-producing processes.
There are a number of ways the project could evolve, according to the particular research interests of the student. This will include:
- An evaluation of the GloSea seasonal forecast system over East Africa using satellite-based observations of precipitation and cloud.
- Focus on rainfall extremes, i.e. floods and drought. An assessment of the ability of the seasonal forecast system to predict the drought in 2011 and the heavy rainfall events in 2014 and 2015. Do any of the ensemble members predict these events? More generally, how extreme can anomalies in rainfall be in the seasonal forecasts and is there evidence that the forecasts can predict unprecedented events?
- Comparison of the seasonal forecast system with more traditional statistical forecast methods (e.g. Mutai et al. 1998). What is the added value of the GloSea forecasting system?
- Run additional model case studies or sensitivity tests to better understand key rainfall-producing processes.
People |
ORCID iD |
Cathryn Birch (Primary Supervisor) | |
Dean Walker (Student) |
Publications
Finney D
(2019)
The effect of westerlies on East African rainfall and the associated role of tropical cyclones and the Madden-Julian Oscillation
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Langendijk G
(2019)
Three Ways Forward to Improve Regional Information for Extreme Events: An Early Career Perspective
in Frontiers in Environmental Science
Walker D
(2019)
Skill of dynamical and GHACOF consensus seasonal forecasts of East African rainfall
in Climate Dynamics
Walker D
(2020)
Common Mechanism for Interannual and Decadal Variability in the East African Long Rains
in Geophysical Research Letters
Studentship Projects
Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
NE/N008227/1 | 30/09/2016 | 30/03/2021 | |||
1796287 | Studentship | NE/N008227/1 | 30/09/2016 | 30/11/2020 | Dean Walker |