No War, No Peace in the Niger Delta: Exploring the Functions of Violence within the Political Settlement Framework

OVERVIEW
My research examines the functions of violence within political settlements to shed light on the common experience of "no war, no peace" following post-war political (re-)settlements. Looking at internal group dynamics, it will be analysed what implications the inclusion of ex-militant leaders of major armed groups in the Niger Delta into the political settlement have had for managing violence. In contrast to the dominant narrative in literature, it will be argued that certain forms of ongoing militant activities do not embody a breakdown of elite-constituency relationships. Instead, they are part of the materialization process of the elite pact. Based on the findings, policy implications regarding the design of peacebuilding activities shall be identified.
CONTEXT
My research will address questions relating to the connection between peace processes and political settlements by looking at the case of the amnesty and disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programme in the Niger Delta. Growing recognition in the international development community that inclusive political settlements are crucial for enabling a sustainable exit from conflict is at odds with repeated cycles of violence following post-conflict political (re-)settlements in Africa as elsewhere.
In the political settlement literature, it is commonly assumed that negotiated material benefits of peace processes are distributed by elites to their respective constituent groups to ensure allegiance and contain violence. Yet, there is little systematic analysis of how exactly support for disarmament and demobilisation is reached and maintained within armed groups and how elite bargains trickle down and materialize for combatants. Similarly, it is not well understood how this process relates to violence.
This research seeks to fill this gap by analysing the implications that the inclusion of ex-militant leaders of major armed groups in the Niger Delta into the political settlement have had for managing violence through policies within insurgent groups. It will explore the relationship between the materialization of elite bargains and the use of violence by looking at how these two factors are structurally connected and determined by internal organizational dynamics of rebel groups. How are claims and entitlements organized between members? How do internal hierarchies and laws structure violent and non-violent behaviour and with what re-distributional impact? How do these dynamics differ from the pre-amnesty period?
Against the assumption that militia elites become stakeholders of peace when being part of the political settlement, it will be demonstrated that a system of profit and power linked to the political economy of conflict is worth to be maintained for elites during the amnesty. Forms of violent behaviour contributing to the maintenance of a system that benefits from a situation of stable instability - linked to the political economy of oil in the case of the Niger Delta - continue to be rewarded.
METHODOLOGY
The research will utilise data collection, in-depth interviews as well as historical analysis to unpack the complexity of the issue. This multi-methodological approach is aligned with the method of triangulation, not only aiming to widen and deepen the understanding of the study phenomenon, but also to increase the accuracy and validity of the research outcomes. Moreover, it aims to follow a grounded theory approach in inducing a theoretical advancement of the conceptualization of violence within the political settlement framework. Data collection will include secondary literature, policy documents, published reports as well as newspaper and media analysis. Interview data will form the key part of the analysis. During overseas fieldwork, semi-structured interviews will be conducted in the Niger Delta with members of major armed groups in addition to group discussions between March and July 2019.