Multi-speces animal movement and connectivity in the Alps

Background
After centuries of persecution, the wolf is naturally recolonising the Alpine region. Since 1995, when a wolf pack was first recorded in the Alps, the total Alpine population has grown to about 160 individuals. This quick expansion has exacerbated conflict between wolves and farmers due to attacks and predation on livestock. In areas where the wolf established its territory relatively early (i.e. since 1995), livestock losses have significantly decreased. On the other hand, in recently recolonised areas (i.e. since 2010), where adequate preventive measures are not in place, conflict has increased dramatically.
Regional administrations provide different solutions for conflict resolution (e.g. guarding dogs, electric fences). In addition, following recent media coverage and political debate, the Italian government is considering the potential establishment of a culling scheme. The impact of conflict resolution measures is highly context dependent. Previous research suggests that the most successful prevention strategy in the Alps is using a combination of electric fences and guarding dogs, accompanied by the constant presence of shepherds at the pasture. However, these studies were based on small sample sizes and did not consider the concurrent decrease of livestock following land abandonment in high altitude pastures. Scientific evidence on culling is lacking, although some studies hypothesised a counterproductive effect. In fact, killing individuals could alter the social structure of wolf packs, increasing dispersal of wolves into new areas where more damages can occur.
Conflict resolution measures are both financially and labour demanding. As such, it is important to identify the most effective solutions to increase conservation impact and make efficient use of financial resources. However, despite some existing knowledge, the effectiveness of such measures for large carnivores in the Alps is yet to be assessed.
Aims and Objectives
The aim of this project will be to provide scientific evidence for reducing human-wolf conflict in the Alps. The main factors affecting the likelihood of conflict will be identified. This will also allow the identification of areas which are potentially more at risk now and in future recolonizations. The effectiveness of different measures for conflict resolution will also be assessed and quantified.
Methodology
Data Collection
Data about wolf occurrence in the Alps will be obtained from the Life WolfAlps project. The map of future potential recolonizations will be obtained from an updated version of the model in Marucco et al. (2010). All data about farms and pastures will be gathered from the EU Integrated Administration and Control System. Finally, data on reported wolf attacks will be retrieved from the veterinary department of the Italian sanitary system.
Analysis
To identify the factors affecting the likelihood of conflict, we will use a generalised linear model (GLM) relating wolf attacks to environmental and anthropic variables, such as: altitude, forest cover, density of wolves, time since first recolonization, land abandonment, and type and density of livestock. The output of the model will be used to predict the likelihood of conflict in newly colonised areas. Another GLM will be used to assess the effectiveness of conflict prevention measures against wolf attacks. Considered measures will be shepherd patrolling, electric fences, guarding dogs, acoustic deterrents and possible combinations of these. The output of this model will be statistically adjusted using the results from the previous GLM. Finally, the potential effectiveness of culling will be assessed using an individual based model simulating individual behaviour within wolf packs affected by culling