WHO ARE THE BEST SNOOKER PLAYERS AND WHAT SETS THEM APART FROM THE REST?
Lead Research Organisation:
Lancaster University
Department Name: Management Science
Abstract
The broad aim of my research is to use mathematical modelling and statistical analysis to identify the best snooker players and to explore what differentiates them from the rest. I will be analysing the results of snooker matches to:
1. Evaluate alternative mathematical models for ranking and rating professional snooker players (e.g. Elo, Markov & Bradley-Terry models) in order to establish a robust system for quantifying the relative ability of different players which can be used to estimate the underlying probability that one player will beat another.
2. Develop a suitable measure for a player's current form and assess, using appropriate statistical analysis, whether this affects the likely outcome of a match. Similarly, I will test whether there is any statistically significant evidence that within a match the probability that a player will win the next frame is affected by the outcomes of previous frames.
I will also gather data from within matches in order to:
3. Review the performance measures currently used (e.g. pot success and safety success rates) and consider whether there are any alternative measures which are more strongly associated with the outcome of a match and / or help to explain why some players are more successful than others. Through this I hope to influence the data that is collected and provide a richer source of information for players, coaches, commentators and the wider snooker audience, as well as future analysts and modellers.
1. Evaluate alternative mathematical models for ranking and rating professional snooker players (e.g. Elo, Markov & Bradley-Terry models) in order to establish a robust system for quantifying the relative ability of different players which can be used to estimate the underlying probability that one player will beat another.
2. Develop a suitable measure for a player's current form and assess, using appropriate statistical analysis, whether this affects the likely outcome of a match. Similarly, I will test whether there is any statistically significant evidence that within a match the probability that a player will win the next frame is affected by the outcomes of previous frames.
I will also gather data from within matches in order to:
3. Review the performance measures currently used (e.g. pot success and safety success rates) and consider whether there are any alternative measures which are more strongly associated with the outcome of a match and / or help to explain why some players are more successful than others. Through this I hope to influence the data that is collected and provide a richer source of information for players, coaches, commentators and the wider snooker audience, as well as future analysts and modellers.
Organisations
Studentship Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP/N509504/1 | 01/10/2016 | 30/09/2021 | |||
| 1945568 | Studentship | EP/N509504/1 | 01/10/2017 | 31/03/2021 | James Collingwood |
| Description | Different methods for creating a relative rating of professional snooker players were compared, with the proportion of frames won by players over the past 2 years providing a simple and effective way of achieving a reliable indication of their ability based on past results. Existing and potential statistics were assessed, with objective measures preferred which reflect the number of scoring visits made by each player and the average number of points scored on each visit. The proportion of shots resulting in a pot were also shown to be informative measures, which could also be used to simulate the progression of frames played between two players. |
| Exploitation Route | Results could be used to assess the impact of different designs of professional snooker tournaments on expected outcomes for different levels of player, with potential value for the governing body in designing future events. Results could be used as the basis for introducing objective statistics which reflect the typical level of performance for individual professional snooker players. These could be utilised by broadcasters to inform their audiences, and by players and coaches to understand relative strengths and weaknesses. |
| Sectors | Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism |
| Description | Magazine article |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Based on a initial report of my analysis of the performance measures used in snooker, Clive Everton wrote a short article entitled 'Stat Attack' for the July 2019 issue of Snooker Scene magazine - a highly regarded publication in the field of cue sports. I would like to see a change in the quantity and quality of the data available from professional snooker matches and this was an early attempt to increase awareness within the sport about what might be possible. Article: Stat Attack Publication: Snooker Scene Issue: July 2019 Page: 7 Publisher: Snooker Scene Ltd Editor: Clive Everton |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |