ecadal variability of tropical cyclones: natural variability or anthropogenic influence

Lead Research Organisation: University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology

Abstract

Questions:
1) can state-of-the art high-resolution GCMs (capable to resolve TCs and providing a sample size far larger than observations) simulate the decadal variability of TCs, based on credible process chains?
2) is decadal variability caused by internal climate variability alone, or is there an anthropogenic influence, particularly via radiative forcing (aerosol and GHGs)?

In this PhD output from new high resolution (25km mesh size or less) multi-decadal (10s to 100s of years, multi-ensemble member and multi-model) simulations with state of the art global coupled climate models will be used as foundations, to robustly answer those open questions. These models credibly simulate the structure and intensities of TCs, as well as their paths ("tracks") and interannual variability. This project will entail the use of existing (Horizon-2020 PRIMAVERA, HighResMIP) as well as novel simulations (performed by the student) to isolate the individual mechanisms controlling TC, now extending to decadal variability. Analysis will make use of sophisticated tools (e.g. the University of Reading "TRACK") and develop new diagnostics, in collaboration with Prof Vidale's projects, to unpick the importance of natural variability versus anthropogenic influence in controlling the variability of TCs.

Publications

10 25 50

Studentship Projects

Project Reference Relationship Related To Start End Student Name
NE/R008868/1 01/10/2017 30/09/2022
1948482 Studentship NE/R008868/1 30/09/2017 30/09/2020 Pinelopi Loizou