Modelling the impact of antimalarial treatment on severe disease

Lead Research Organisation: Imperial College London
Department Name: School of Public Health

Abstract

PROJECT AIM
To explore patterns of severe disease manifestations in different settings and characterise the impact of antimalarial treatment on reducing severe disease and mortality in Africa.
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
Primary Objectives
1) To compare the distributions of severe disease manifestations in different transmission settings.
2) To quantify the impact of antimalarial treatment for uncomplicated malaria on preventing progression to severe disease, given current access to antimalarial drugs, and estimate how this could be increased with improved access to treatment.
3) To estimate the impact of introducing rectal artesunate for early severe malaria treatment in the community.
Secondary Objectives
1) To explore the relationship between physical accessibility of an area (e.g. quantified by travel time to the nearest population centre), access to treatment, and potential impact of rectal artesunate.
2) To characterise how the results of primary objective (2) are affected by treatment failure due to:
a) drug resistance, by overlaying existing maps of drug resistance and types of antimalarial taken in different countries.
b) Incomplete treatment and non-adherence

Publications

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