The role of mathematical modelling for knowledge production in infectious disease outbreak responses
Lead Research Organisation:
Imperial College London
Department Name: School of Public Health
Abstract
The role of mathematical modelling for knowledge production in infectious disease outbreak responses: An evaluation of the extent of its application and the interaction between model producers and consumers
Decisions about how to best respond to global health issues are increasingly being informed by results from mathematical modelling and economic analysis. The methods are complex and often viewed as a 'black box' by policy-makers who need to consider the findings from modelling against other types of evidence and data, as well as wider health system contraints and political and economic realities when making policy decisions. Evaluating how well producers of models articulate their findings, the limitations of their analyses, and how policy-makers understand these is important. Here we assess this in collaboration with the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC). Established in 2016, the VIMC bring together over 20 epidemiological modelling groups from all over the world, all with a focus on vaccine impact modelling. The Consortium was established in response to an identified need by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This project aims to work in close collaboration with VIMC, governments, donors and other stakeholders to assess how the global vaccine model outputs are translated at the national level.
Decisions about how to best respond to global health issues are increasingly being informed by results from mathematical modelling and economic analysis. The methods are complex and often viewed as a 'black box' by policy-makers who need to consider the findings from modelling against other types of evidence and data, as well as wider health system contraints and political and economic realities when making policy decisions. Evaluating how well producers of models articulate their findings, the limitations of their analyses, and how policy-makers understand these is important. Here we assess this in collaboration with the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC). Established in 2016, the VIMC bring together over 20 epidemiological modelling groups from all over the world, all with a focus on vaccine impact modelling. The Consortium was established in response to an identified need by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This project aims to work in close collaboration with VIMC, governments, donors and other stakeholders to assess how the global vaccine model outputs are translated at the national level.
Studentship Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES/P000703/1 | 30/09/2017 | 29/09/2027 | |||
| 2114396 | Studentship | ES/P000703/1 | 30/09/2018 | 31/12/2022 | Paula Christen |
| Description | I was not the PI of the work, but from my understanding, the PI communicated results to the cabinet. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2020 |
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Future collaboration intended |
| Organisation | Barcelona Institute for Global Health |
| Country | Spain |
| Sector | Multiple |
| PI Contribution | The collaboration is yet to be formalised. To date, the potential of collaborating is being discussed. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The collaboration is yet to be formalised. To date, the potential of collaborating is being discussed. |
| Impact | NA |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Presentation to Crick Institute |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | This is was an opportunity for Crick and Imperial PhD students to present their research in the format of a short talk or a poster, and also hear about the projects other students are carrying out. Approximately 50 students and researchers attended. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |