Peacemaking, Policy, and the Politics of Evidence: A critical grounded theory of issue and technical bias in the 2012-2016 Colombian Peace Process

My proposed research looks at the use of evidence-based policymaking (EBPM) within the 2012-2016 Colombian Peace Process (CPP) between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The process of peacemaking is designed to neutralise politics, thus promoting peace. In the CPP, the negotiation process was supported by the bipartisan creation of policies addressing the causes and effects of the conflict: rural land reform, political participation, the 'illicit drugs problem', and - ultimately - violence. Policymaking involved the extensive use of participatory evidence and proposals for peace, as facilitated by a systematic - neutrally administered - process. It also involved the use of expert analysis at the negotiation table and beyond. Unfortunately, the rise in rural violence and the increase in cocaine production suggests these policies may be ineffective or misplaced. I contend that this is the result of issue and/or technical bias. Issue bias is the artificial depoliticisation of inherently political issues using EBPM; technical bias is a deviation from scientific best-practice in EBPM. EBPM in the CPP exhibits these biases because the FARC-government conflict specific policies were sold as a panacea to wider issues (issue bias) and the policies have also been ineffective within their defined scope (potentially technical bias). I wish to explore how these biases came to be by interpreting and qualitatively analysing interview and documental data using a critical realist lens. Interviews with 20-30 bureaucrats, politicians, non-state actors, and other stakeholders will take place in Colombia in the second year of PhD study. By using a process of open-coding, axial coding, induction, deduction, and retroduction (including quantitative analysis), a critical grounded theory will emerge. Consistent with the methodology, this critical grounded theory will be emancipatory, enacting change to prevent issue bias and technical bias in future peacemaking scenarios (taking into account the relevant causal variables). This will have a significant impact because, in situations where conflict has arisen due to politics and policy issues, lasting peace depends on the effectiveness of solutions. Thus, by creating and disseminating knowledge about EBPM - and its biases - in the peacemaking process, I hope to contribute to the successful resolution and prevention of violent conflicts in Colombia and elsewhere.