The impact of demand side macroprudential policies on household indebtedness

Lead Research Organisation: Heriot-Watt University
Department Name: Sch of Social Sciences

Abstract

Since the 2008 crisis, several policy tools have been introduced. The novelty of many of these tools is that instead of tightening bank capital, they tacked household indebtedness directly. The goal of these policies is to achieve financial stability through limiting credit growth.
The uniqueness of this research is focusing on households instead of on aggregate credit. The new policies impact households directly who are more heterogenous than banks. Using aggregate credit data implicitly assumes that all households react identically to these policies which inherently means we do not get the full picture of the impact of these tools.
A credit register contains all loan level information for each contract (anonymised). Utilising the untapped potential in these registers will give a better understanding of how these policies impact the decomposition of the credit market. It allows to uncover the defining characteristics that determine whether a household drops out of the credit market as opposed to households that simply alter their credit demand.
The research also aims to study how the policies impact the credit market and the real economy. It is expected that with the micro focus of the dataset a more accurate estimation of the impact on credit growth can be obtained. When studying the impact on the real economy the research aims to use a quantile regression approach to capture the full spectrum of effects.
The research will contribute to the current discourse on macroprudential policy by having a household focus.

Publications

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Studentship Projects

Project Reference Relationship Related To Start End Student Name
ES/P000681/1 01/10/2017 30/09/2027
2269475 Studentship ES/P000681/1 16/09/2019 23/12/2023 Tibor Szendrei