Investigating the Effect of Territorial Control on the Micro-Dynamics of Domestic Terrorism

My project addresses the question of how terrorist organisations' control of domestic territory affects the dynamics and patterns of terrorist violence. I take as a case study the example of terrorist organisations across the African continent and seek to understand how their degree of territorial control affects the levels, purpose, and patterns of violence within the domestic conflict environment. Overall, I seek to extend current research and inform policy-makers on recent shifts in the behaviours of terrorist organisations to inspire counterterrorism reform across the international community.

The motivation for this research is twofold. First, an increase in the level, intensity, and geography of terrorist violence on the African continent presents an urgent need for a better understanding of the conditions in which violence occurs, intensifies, and abates. High-profile attacks on civilians by terrorist organisations speak to a recent and dramatic shift in group tactics. Organisations (e.g. Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram) have gained control of local territories, and large communities, and evolved into progressively ambitious regional networks to stand as the most potent opposition force to many across the international community. In turn, organisations such as the U.S. Institute of Peace have called for research into the effect of territorial control on the behaviours of terrorist organisations. Second, existing research on the control of territory by non-state actors has failed to explain the relationship between territorial control and terrorist, as opposed to rebel, violence. Moreover, it has failed to explain why this form of violence emerges at specific times and spaces within local environments.

My project mitigates this failure and interrogates the relationship between territorial control and terrorist violence. I focus on three aspects in the relationship between territory and terrorism. First, I examine to what extent the degree of territorial control by terrorist organisations affects the level of violence. Within this, I aim to investigate whether or not terrorist violence is facilitated by the control of domestic territory. Second, I consider to what extent the degree of territorial control by terrorist organisations affects the patterns of violence. Within this, I aim to examine the way in which the control of territory unveils variances in terrorist tactics. For example, Al-Shabaab have demonstrated a variation in their use of violence, from suicide bombings to large-scale assassinations, under different conditions of territorial control throughout Kenya in recent years. Third, I examine to what extent the degree of territorial control by terrorist organisations affects the purpose of violence. Here, I aim to identify the underlying motive behind the use of terrorist violence under different conditions of territorial control. Using event-based data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project and the Global Terrorism Database, I propose a cross-country, sub-national quantitative analysis of 50 African countries between 1997-2018. I intend to complement this analysis with case studies on domestic terrorist organisations (e.g. Boko Haram in Nigeria; Al-Shabaab in Kenya) in order to unearth a deeper understanding of territorial control and domestic terrorism.

I believe my project offers a unique conceptual and methodological contribution to the field of international relations. It will shed light on previously unexplored behaviours of domestic terrorist organisations and consider the wider impact of such behaviours across the domestic environment. My project offers a novel, sub-national and cross-country, methodological approach which will enhance current approaches to the study of terrorist violence, and violence more generally, in the academic literature. My approach has the potential to influence further research as well as counterterrorism policies, practices, and practitioners.