Taking the escalator to extinction: Understanding the role of rapid forest expansion in driving hotspots of extinction risk for endemic species in Tai
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Stirling
Department Name: Biological and Environmental Sciences
Abstract
Despite an abundance of data quantifying and predicting the response of forest distribution to ongoing climatic changes in temperate and boreal regions, there is a near absence of data, and hence little understanding, of how tropical mountain systems will respond to climate change(1). While we understand that forests are often expanding rapidly at high elevation as temperatures warm, little attention has been given to the implications of such changes for plants above the forest limit (2,3). Data frequently demonstrate upward migration of such alpine species also, however, with highly limited habitat availability at high altitude, such upward migration is dubbed the 'elevator to extinction' since once at the highest elevations, such alpine species have no-where left to go (4). Data on high elevation extinction risk are, however, vanishingly rare. This significant knowledge gap has major implications for our ability to predict future impacts of environmental change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (5).
Previous work by the supervisory team in the region has identified rapid shifts in the altitudinal distribution of alpine plant species driven directly by rising temperature and through displacement due to elevation of the mountain treeline (4). However, expansion of forest at the treeline is highly heterogeneous; expanding rapidly in some areas but remaining static in others (6). While elevational shifts of forest risk alpine plant extinction, spatial heterogeneity in advance allows a mechanism for continued coexistence (7).
Previous work by the supervisory team in the region has identified rapid shifts in the altitudinal distribution of alpine plant species driven directly by rising temperature and through displacement due to elevation of the mountain treeline (4). However, expansion of forest at the treeline is highly heterogeneous; expanding rapidly in some areas but remaining static in others (6). While elevational shifts of forest risk alpine plant extinction, spatial heterogeneity in advance allows a mechanism for continued coexistence (7).
Studentship Projects
Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
NE/S007431/1 | 01/10/2019 | 30/09/2028 | |||
2436971 | Studentship | NE/S007431/1 | 01/10/2020 | 31/10/2024 | Catherine Mercer |
Description | As a result of the award I have made significant progress with methods development for modelling alpine species distributions and mapping alpine habitats. I have also built collaborations with colleagues in Taiwan. |
Exploitation Route | The methods can be applied to other study systems and the distribution records recorded can be used in future research. |
Sectors | Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy |
Description | Building broad collaborations with academic and non-academic institutions that will lead to future research projects investigating climate change impacts on mountain systems, with a focus on Taiwan. |
First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
Description | UK-Canada Globalink doctoral exchange scheme |
Amount | £10,556 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/X007871/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2022 |
End | 08/2023 |
Description | UK-Canada Globalink doctoral exchange scheme |
Amount | $3,000 (CAD) |
Organisation | Mitacs |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | Canada |
Start | 08/2022 |
End | 08/2023 |
Description | Alistair Jump |
Organisation | University of Stirling |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Methods development, intellectual input, analysis |
Collaborator Contribution | Mentorship, advice on methods development |
Impact | At least three journal articles will be published as a result of this collaboration |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Daniel Chapman |
Organisation | University of Stirling |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Intellectual input, methods development, research design |
Collaborator Contribution | Mentorship, intellectual input, advise on methods development |
Impact | At least three articles will be published as a result of this collaboration |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Daniel Donoghue |
Organisation | Durham University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Intellectual input, research design, methods development |
Collaborator Contribution | Mentorship, intellectual input, advice on methods and research design |
Impact | atleast three papers will be published as a result of this collaboration |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Jan-Chang Chen |
Organisation | National Pingtung University of Science and Technology |
Country | Taiwan, Province of China |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Intellectual input, methods development, fieldwork planning |
Collaborator Contribution | Fieldwork assistants, logistical support in Taiwan, methods development advice |
Impact | Atleast three articles will be published as a result of this collaboration |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Lori Daniels |
Organisation | University of British Columbia |
Country | Canada |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Writing of grant application, methods development |
Collaborator Contribution | Advice on grant proposal and methods development, mentorship |
Impact | At least one paper will be published as a result of this partnership |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | Sarah Watts collaboration, University of Stirling |
Organisation | University of Stirling |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Co-authored a paper investigating the elevator-to-extinction phenomenon in Scottish arctic-alpine plants. |
Collaborator Contribution | Methods development of statistical analysis that generated a significant proportion of the results reported in the co-authored article. |
Impact | The main outcome has been a co-authored journal article. The reference for the journal article is given below: Watts, S. H., Mardon, D. K., Mercer, C., Watson, D., Cole, H., Shaw, R. F., and Jump, A. S. (2022). Riding the elevator to extinction: Disjunct arctic-alpine plants of open habitats decline as their more competitive neighbours expand. Biological Conservation, 272, 109620. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109620. |
Start Year | 2021 |