Real-time monitoring and forecasting of coastal erosion

Coastal erosion threatens nearshore infrastructure, individual properties, and people's livelihoods. Risks associated with coastal erosion are expected to increase in severity in the coming decades due to anticipated sea level rise, and the increased intensity and frequency of storm events (UKCP18). Despite these risks, coastal regions remain a focus for development and thus there is need for an evidence base to establish which assets within which coastlines are most vulnerable to erosion for strategic planning purposes. Our ability to make reliable predictions of future coastal change is dependent on a solid theoretical understanding of coastal processes coupled with records of past coastal change under known forcing conditions. Future coastal erosion around the coast of Scotland has focused at the national scale by extrapolation of historical recession rates. However, historical observations of shoreline changes are temporally sparse. Prediction of future coastal erosion requires the use of process-based numerical models that are calibrated and validated by observational data. This project aims to couple real time monitoring and modelling to develop a continuous early warning system for storm-induced coastal erosion events in response to extreme environmental conditions.