Securing Lawtonian Landscape Resilience
Lead Research Organisation:
CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY
Department Name: School of Water, Energy and Environment
Abstract
Lawton (2010) reviewed England's biodiversity and ecological networks and concluded that biodiversity sites did not comprise a coherent and resilient ecological network, in the face of a changing climate and threats to biodiversity. We need to make our network of sites bigger, better and more joined up and plan effectively to avoid further degradation. The Governments 25 year environment plan sets goals for improving the environment, aiming to achieve a growing and resilient network richer in biodiversity. This project answers the question, how do we deliver these goals by means of green infrastructure investments informed by robust science.
People |
ORCID iD |
| Ron Corstanje (Primary Supervisor) | |
| Nikolaos Toumasis (Student) |
Studentship Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE/S007350/1 | 01/10/2019 | 30/09/2027 | |||
| 2474922 | Studentship | NE/S007350/1 | 17/11/2020 | 20/09/2024 | Nikolaos Toumasis |
| Description | Ecological restoration is seen as an important tool in halting and reversing biodiversity loss and climate change. The aim of this research was to determine the ecological resilience of the STA's and how capable are to withstand perturbation, to analyse and understand resilience within the Everglades boundaries of South Florida, measuring resilience with Total Phosphorus(TP) and inflow-outflow concentration relationships in STA's for Everglades restoration and the built environment around it with the ultimate goal of shielding the area at risk of various challenges and disturbances through modern, functional, and secure solutions. By studying the phenomenon of resilience, and more specifically in the context of habitats, it is realised that it contributes substantially to the sustainable development of the areas. This study was seeking to investigate ecosystem complexity and those dynamic properties that emerge from functioning systems, such as resilience to perturbation. There are a number of important issues that have had a bearing on this study, including the need to investigate and apply wavelet analysis as well as autocorrelation analysis to detect early warning signals for state and system change in measuring ecological resilience and to study the differences between mechanical and ecological resilience. The system modified by hurricanes, droughts, and storms was based on the Stormwater Treatment Areas (STAs) in the Everglades, South Florida. The Everglades are a very large subtropical tropical wetland area that occupies the southern part of the US state of Florida. It is the southern half of a large drainage basin and belongs to the neotropic ecozone. The Everglades begin north near Orlando, with the Kissim River flowing into the great shallow Lake Okeechobee. The water that overflows from this lake during the rainy season forms a body of water with a very slow motion, a very wide (almost 100 kilometers) river, which flows 160 kilometres to the southern tip of the Florida peninsula on limestone rocks. The usage of resilience as a nebulous border object must be counterbalanced with a well-defined, descriptive definition of resilience. Resilience in ecological research may be operationalized and applied only if a coherent descriptive notion is in place. Autocorrelation and Time Series Techniques were used to demonstrate the constant wavelet transform (CWT), discrete wavelet transform (DWT), and wavelet decomposition in R. Streamflow data and TP loads were used for these wavelet treatments. Automated total phosphorus (TP) sample data was obtained at regular intervals at flow points in Stormwater Treatment Areas. Analyzing data sets as time series, I was looking for trends and random noise, determining the periodicity of any cyclical activity in the data, and utilising spectral power, which I was using as a proxy for autocorrelation, to forecast the data. By employing these techniques, we were able to spot substantial shifts in model-observed wavelet correlation and model residual wavelet variance at various scales. Moreover, working on the RestREco project improved our understanding of overlaying a robust statistical design onto an existing network of sites that represent a range of potential drivers: time since restoration began, initial state and spatial proximity to existing woodlands or grasslands and the development of new technologies and methodologies for extracting useful patterns of land-cover and land-use from remote sensing data at multiple scales. Regime shifts occur when an ecosystem demonstrates a nonlinear and discontinuous reaction to a driving variable, enabling it to undergo a drastic change when outside forcing is incrementally increased. Slowing down can be utilised to indicate the approaching of a crucial transition, rather than attempting to anticipate regime transitions by predicting critical values. Summary statistics such as variance and autocorrelation rise when an ecosystem is nearing a crucial change. An environment close to a critical transition has poor resistance, which means it takes longer to return to equilibrium after a disruption. Rapid increases in phosphorus (P) exchange among water and sediments are associated with eutrophication, which results in high P concentrations in the water and, as a result, a decrease in water quality. The 5 Everglades Stormwater Treatment Zones (STA's)-STA-1E, STA-1W, STA-2, STA-3/4, STA-5/6 received flow data and station records were merged and summarised for each flow- way. Several methods of analysis were used to examine the intake and outflow of each flow path. As a result, it was critical to understand the impacts of TP while assessing possible phosphorus concentrations. (TP) is the primary cause of the reported effects, which are linked to (TDP) and (SRP). We were particularly interested in the most and least resilient area of the Stormwater Treatment Zones. It has been hypothesised that slow internal critical transitions often made STA's less resilient over time, setting them up for collapse. Here we provide quantitative evidence for this concept. Explaining the spectacular collapses and transformations observed in concentrations of total phosphorus (TP-Mg/L) and loading (TP-Kg) is an obvious approach to investigating for external perturbations that would be responsible. Here we examined whether a loss of resilience, making the STA's increasingly fragile. The study was based on extensive sampling from 2002 to 2014, in which soil, surface water, and macrocytes were calculated within STA cells, resulting in a large body of observer data. Combined with superspectral measurements made through various aerial surveys, the results involve a fairly comprehensible set of data on the spatial variability of key components of the STA ecosystem. We expect common biogeochemical processes to create common multicultural standards across all STAs (Corstanje et al., 2016). A quantitative analysis was performed on the data resulting from these measurements in order to draw relevant conclusions regarding the maintenance of Everglades resilience. The JMP tool, which was used in applications such as Six Sigma, quality control, and engineering, experimental design, as well as research in science and engineering, was also likely used for statistical analysis. The software focused on exploratory optical analysis, which was used for data from Everglades, South Florida. A basic example of a statistical method by which to measure CSD is the Generalized Linear Models (levels of vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and resilience of water quality data under different climate scenarios, land use and land management influences on catchment hydrology by modelling and wavelets). These explorations can also be verified by hypothesis testing, data mining, or other analytical methods. In addition, the discoveries made through graphic exploration can lead to a well-designed experiment that can be designed and analysed with Rstudio, JMP and MATLAB. As a result, ecosystems nearing a tipping point lose their ability to withstand disturbances and shift towards an alternate state. The most significant concentration levels of total phosphorus (TP) occurred for inflow-way, and water P increased with P input. These findings have important applications for management because they demonstrate the ability to detect early warning signals over a broad range of tracking frequencies without the need for experts to start making situation-specific decisions regarding aggregation, which is a critical factor in the detection of early warning signals. The increasing autocorrelation of a state variable in a system could be a generic leading indicator of low resilience and an early warning alert for critical transitions. Also working on remote sensing with Python code and focusing on UK woodlands and grasslands will help us better understand system complexity, function, and emergent properties-particularly resilience and how the principles learned from ecology can be applied to our socio-ecological system. There is a growing concern over resilience arising in ecosystems because of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts between alternative ecosystem states. Tipping points are typically observed in systems where strong positive feedbacks drive the establishment of alternative stable states (Van Nes, E.H. et al., 2016). The proposed research concerns the study of the conservation and resilience of the habitat system, specifically the Everglades in South Florida in the United States of America. For this reason, the research was based on the following research questions, which were used to structure the study as a whole: Is it possible to observe/measure the resilience of an ecosystem? What numerical tools are appropriate to determine the resilience of an ecosystem? Do systems slow down or accelerate towards tipping points? What problems could jeopardise habitat resilience? In what ways can the resilience of the system be maintained? What consequences will the above have on the wider area around the habitat? Of particular interest was how deep learning in remote sensing can help to improve our understanding of the changing state of the Earth's land-cover. RestREco aims to unpick and examine the essential elements required for ecosystem restoration, focusing on UK woodlands and grasslands, and considers complexity and resilience as fundamental aims for restoration projects, rather than attempting to recreate specific target ecosystems. An important part of the present study is the conduct of quantitative research and data analysis in the Everglades of South Florida. The research question was twofold: on the one hand, the study and recording of the characteristics that endanger the resilience of the habitat and the characteristics that must be maintained in order to have its resilience. On the other hand, the research, through a statistical analysis, recorded the views of experts, seeking as a final result to draw conclusions regarding the necessary actions to improve the relevant policies and strategies so that society should shoulder the benefits of green infrastructure, especially towards strengthening its durability (Holling& Gunderson, 2002). The statistical analysis, in combination with the previous literature review, led to the formulation of conclusions and the formulation of proposals for necessary actions in order to derive the benefits of the presence of green infrastructure for the benefit of society, focusing on strengthening it. Based on the statistical analysis, the quantitative analysis of the data will follow (Folke et al., 2010). When studying periodic occurrences in time series, the wavelet approach makes sense, especially when there are possible variations in frequency over time. It is possible to find a solution to the problem of frequency and time resolution by using wavelets. It is only in the last few years that wavelets have begun to be used in economic research in addition to their many other fields of use. Many open-source programs for wavelet assessment in R have emerged in response to the growing demand for wavelet techniques. The Morlet wavelet is used by WaveletComp to examine the frequency structure of univariate and bivariate time series. This complex-valued, continuous wavelet transforms the time series under study into a complex-valued, continuous wavelet transform, keeping all of the original data. Coherency among two-time series may be studied by examining the transform's real and imaginary parts, which provide information on both the local amplitude and the instantaneous phases of any regular process over time. The use of wavelets and their constituent blocks is a technique for spectral analysis. Finding the temporal frequency distribution and the power evolution over time is a primary purpose of employing Wavelet Transform (WT). A significant event in the time series may be pinpointed by rescaling and translating a wavelet function, which has a short duration and an asymmetrical form. Aside from environmental and nutrient modelling, wavelet assessment has been used in various atmospheric and oceanic research. For example, the Wavelet Transform approach has been shown to be superior to the Fourier transform technique when it comes to locating key aspects of signals that are non-stationary at their extraction temporal position. Using the Wavelet transform, one may examine the relationship between two variables, such as one dependent or one independent variable, and see how their time-frequency distribution changes over time (Hydrology, 2018). |
| Exploitation Route | By explaining the rolling autocorrelation plots and overall differences in behaviour where autocorrelation is lengthening and then shortening not only by giving details on the signals of critical slowing down and resilience-identifying increasing variance-increasing autocorrelation but also the overall red and blue noise/disturbances in wavelet power spectrum plots, we aim to move restoration science forward, by considering complexity, multi-functionality, and resilience as fundamental aims for restoration projects, rather than attempting to re-create specific reference ecosystems. Understanding fundamental concepts of resilience signals, as well as how the system behaves on average, and indications of critical slowing down by conflicting viewpoints, we defined Correlation and Variance in the rainfall sum activity with inflow-outflow TP concentrations, consistent with gradually declining resilience. However, using these reference systems to define endpoints for restoration is increasingly difficult for two reasons: "pristine-native" states are often hard to define, and climate change is leading to a shifting baseline. Determining the periodicity and looking at ARIMA model and AR (1), along with the formulation of research questions and focusing on wavelets in water quality data, we tested for the occurrence of temporal trends, signals of resilience in water quality (TP) data and signals of critical slowing down-autocorrelation. Focusing on several ways, we explained the trends and other concepts using vivid examples-supporting tools to help with statistical analysis. We focused on connecting new knowledge with the R package and the fundamental concepts of resilience. Produced statistical methods of Time Series analysis and wavelet decomposition of the Time Series underlying principles of biodiversity. We detected if the system changes, when perturbations happen, and how the variability changes as a function of the date and of scale. An analysis of the gaps identified between the currently available and required data for the research. Moreover, I presented my research findings to the CENTA Conference 9th-10th Sep. 2021/University of Birmingham and I had also the chance to have some productive meetings with Pre-CURe mentors and other organisers (CENTA PhD Reloaded/Devon2022) to talk more about the problems in the area of ecological resilience and stormwater storage and whether they are getting worse (climate change, etc.), and how they impact people/businesses (Pre-CURe workshop/Warwick University). By submitting my video to ICURe team, I found the experience very beneficial for my next research steps. |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Education,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Description | The potential impact was initially focused on resilience and working towards developing numerical/statistical methods to illustrate the impact of concepts and methods of analysis. Ecosystem services to address resilience are critically important for ecological systems. Identifying criteria for evaluating conflicting viewpoints, we divided the main body of measuring resilience into component parts. Sustainability for the future of STA's and water conservation activities provide knowledge, skills, and competences regarding the project, as well as frameworks within which to fit new information. Analysed Phosphorus and its impact, as well as a framework for interpreting and studying the various factors relevant to the resilience of systems illustrating the location of current treatment wetlands (SFWMD-South Florida Water Management District-The EEA reservoir plan). We estimated ecological thresholds for phosphorus in the Everglades. The role of aquatic vegetation is critical to understanding the removal of TP and other nutrients from the STA's. As a result, ecosystems nearing a tipping point lose their ability to withstand disturbances and shift towards an alternate state. The most significant concentration levels of total phosphorus (TP) occurred for the inflow-way, and water P increased with P input. Our findings support efforts to secure landscape resilience, because reduced resilience could potentially lead to changes in functional ecosystem characteristics. Finally, the results indicate an anthropogenic environmental influence, which shows that even low-level human settlement is responsible for detectable environmental changes. We conclude that after comparing all the individual regions of the STA's the most resilient area is STA-1E, with the fewest critical transitions and the lowest TP (Total Phosphorus) concentrations, ensuring maximum functionality and the greatest resilience in this specific area. Our analysis suggests that the primary distribution of total phosphorus in STA's after perturbations through flow-ways is associated with autocorrelation, accumulated or not, and may begin to follow the variance as indicators of resilience; measuring such traits is important not just for preventing collapse but also for improving the success of ecological restoration. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2020 |
| Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Education,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Economic,Policy & public services |
| Description | ''Introduction to R''_NEOFR/''Introduction to sequencing data & quality control''/''Introduction to Sequencing Platforms and Bioinformatics''/NERC Environmental Omics Facility (NEOF) |
| Organisation | University of Sheffield |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | R is a highly used programming language for visualisation of data and statistical analysis. There are many R packages for the analysis of biological datasets. This course was aimed at beginners and novices to R. It gave an in depth overview of the foundations of R and Rstudio plus introduced data sorting, visualisation and statistical analysis. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The NERC Environmental Omics Facility (NEOF) provides access to omics capabilities (Genomics, Metabolomics and Proteomics) to the UK environmental research community. To help scientists working within the NERC remit to take advantage of these opportunities, NEOF is providing development projects that wish to access the latest genome sequencing technologies (Pacific BioSciences, Illumina and 10X Genomics). |
| Impact | This is specifically for early career researchers (ECR) within NERC's remit. NEOF define an ECR as a non-independent Postdoctoral Researcher (e.g. a PDRA), an independent Postdoctoral Researcher (e.g. a Research Fellow) or an individual with a technician background (such as research or instrument technicians currently employed in a research capacity within the UK in an environmental science discipline relevant to NERC's remit). |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Geophysics for Environmental Scientists GGE NERC Geophysics course_Keele University |
| Organisation | Keele University |
| Department | School of Geography, Geology and the Environment |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | INDUSTRIAL GEOPHYSICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENTISTS NERC Industrial Strategy Training Courses 19th January - 31st March 2021 |
| Collaborator Contribution | Mr. Nikolaos Toumasis was a course participant on the 50h industrial strategy training course, RSK Environment Ltd. & School of Geography, Geology & Environment, Keele University |
| Impact | NERC Industrial Strategy Training Courses |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | NERC Researcher Academy_Working in Partnership |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Mr. Nikolaos Toumasis completed the 'Working in Partnerships' cohort of the NERC Researcher Engage Academy, between May 2022 and January 2023, facilitated by the National Coordinating Centre for Public Engagement (NCCPE). The Programme worked with environmental science researchers and project staff to develop skills in public engagement, leadership, and strategy development. |
| Collaborator Contribution | As part of this programme Mr. Nikolaos Toumasis: • Attended 8 learning and training events, on the following topics: o High quality public engagement o Engaging with impact o Public engagement in practice o Practicalities of partnerships workshop o Ethics of engagement and dealing with controversy o Evaluating and sustaining partnerships o Next steps: after the academy o Evaluating and sustaining partnerships and making a case |
| Impact | • Contributed to 3 learning group and 3 cohort learning sessions, sharing expertise and advice with colleagues and utilising mentor experience. Mr. Nikolaos Toumasis and 'Working in Partnership cohort' showed their dedication to this programme, adding value to theirs and their colleagues' professional development. |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | The Innovate UK funded PreCURe Programme. |
| Organisation | United Kingdom Research and Innovation |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | PreCURe, as the name suggests, is a short programme to introduce the larger national ICURe (Innovation to Commercialisation of University Research) programme to current research students. ICURe being an up to 6 month programme that funds Early Career Researchers (Post-Docs and Doctoral students who have written up their thesis) up to £50k each for their salaries and expenses in travelling the world to identify users/customers for their research outputs, and discover the optimal route to getting their research outputs into use in society for maximum sustainable impact. |
| Collaborator Contribution | PreCURe was a 7 week programme - a cut down version of ICURe - which invited research students to hypothesise who might be the beneficiaries of their research and what quantum of value their research might be to them. These guesses formed the basis of a "Value Proposition" a well-known framework which was used. Following this, you were asked to have meaningful conversations with at least 10 potential beneficiaries to validate (or otherwise) your guesses, and discover if there were potentially other benefits that could be delivered over and above the original guesses. At the end of the programme participants were asked to summarise their final value proposition and findings in the form of a 5 minute video, which they submitted to the PreCURe team. The journey was supported by a mentor throughout the period. |
| Impact | The goal of the programme was to help the researchers: "Understand Impact" , "Define Impact" , " Create Impact", "Capture Impact" ...THEN... "Deliver Impact". The programme was about "personal development and preparing for a journey" by: • Providing knowledge that leads to understanding. (Things like "Value Proposition Canvas" and perhaps ultimately business plans). • with activities to develop your skills and capabilities (listening that leads to selling and networking). • which modify your beliefs and attitudes (self-efficacy and resilience) • then finally establish your entrepreneurial identity (The Entrepreneur). The programme was a fast paced introduction to the knowledge, understanding, skills, and attributes necessary for a successful career as an entrepreneur. The key was to provide opportunities for learning in a safe and yet challenging environment. The delivery of the learning was facilitated by employing as much experiential learning, in as many sessions, as possible. |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | C2MA workshop - IBM geospatial data access (PAIRS) and IBM Cloud/QGIS/ArcGIS/University of Liverpool and University of Pretoria |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The training workshop included keynotes, career development, breakout sessions and three training sessions on: 1. Medical entomology and epidemiology. 2. Geo-spatial science for understanding of malaria transmission in time and space. 3. Climate data for disease modelling. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | CENTA Conference 2021_University of Birmingham_Attending/Talk |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | The CENTA 2021 Conference Committee and the CENTA Management Board with their support and trust during a challenging time, helped to create the DTP's first hybrid student conference. Also, the Paleontological Society and Copernicus.org for sponsoring this event by promoting science through organising conferences and exhibitions across the world, whilst supporting researchers through publishing peer-reviewed open access journals. The conference included a wide range of activities and presentation formats to engage in the sharing of knowledge and experiences giving a talk about my research outcomes. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | CENTA Conference Leicester_National Space Centre 2022_Attending/Talk |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | During the 2022 CENTA Conference at the National Space Centre we engaged with all the amazing research on show reconnected with colleagues, and met new people. The conference included a wide range of activities and presentation formats to engage in the sharing of knowledge and experiences giving a talk about my research outcomes. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | FAO-NSL-Global Symposium on Salt-affected soils (GSAS21) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Global Symposium on Salt-affected Soils (GSAS21): "Halt soil salinization, boost soil productivity". Symposium highlights: Distinguished guests during the high-level opening session: FAO Director, Minister of Agriculture, Government of Uzbekistan; Executive Secretary, United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification - UNCCD; Head of the International Centre for Biosaline Agriculture - ICBA - Regional Office for Central Asia and South Caucasus; and President of the International Union of Soil Sciences - IUSS. Five eminent keynote speakers from: Agricultural Research Council; International Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University; University of Buenos Aires and University of Groningen. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Infohackit_6 months online programme May-November 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Design Principles_Essential Affinity Designer training/Affinity Skills for Designing Infographics and Visual Abstracts/Advanced Affinity Designer training & practice: Pens, Pencils & Brushes/3D Drawing |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |