The Influence of Climate Change on Future Ocean Conditions: Implications for Offshore Renewable Energy

In response to the global climate emergency, the UK has committed to becoming carbon-neutral by 2050 with Greater Manchester committing to an even more ambitious plan to become carbon-neutral by 2038. A major component of the carbon budget for both the UK and the Greater Manchester region is the electricity sector. As such, efforts are required to ensure electricity (both regionally and nationally generated) through sustainable means. The UK - an island nation surrounded by energetic waters and strong winds - has the potential to generate large proportions of its electricity through offshore renewable (ORE) technologies. As such, the UK already produces around 10% of its electricity from offshore wind with this number set to increase to 30% by 2030. Complimenting this 30% is an expected increase in contribution from nascent wave and tidal energy sectors.

As the UK becomes increasingly reliant on ORE for its electricity, it becomes increasingly important to understand the harsh conditions they operate in; both from the perspective of survivability and expected energy yield. While ORE technologies are important for combatting climate change the conditions they must operate in are also subject to the effects of climate change. Significant uncertainty exists about future weather conditions. Key questions include:
Will the severity and frequency of damaging storms increase? How do extreme events affect design decisions for future wind/wave energy devices?
How will mean energy (wave, wind) levels change?
How do these alter the effectiveness and suitability of existing ORE deployments? How does this affect the optimal locations, design and operation of future deployments?
Can maintenance vessels safely operate in the predicted weather conditions and windows? How does this influence energy production?

This project aims to assess the sensitivity, and uncertainty in performance, of current and future ORE deployments to the effects of climate change. Development of a UK-centred wave model will enable assessment of the predicted wind and wave conditions based on different climate scenarios. Reducing the uncertainty of the future conditions will facilitate improved design, reliability, and location choice for ORE; subsequently increasing the capacity factor (energy yield) and levelised cost of energy (LCOE). As such, this project pertains to the relevant EPSRC themes: Living With Environmental Change, Fluid Dynamics, and Water Engineering.