Probabilistic assessment of structural integrity of composite components in offshore wind energy

Studies show that a significant number of offshore wind turbine generators (WTGs) will reach the end
of their type certified design life before 2030 (Adedipe and Shafiee 2021) and with the push in recent years
to increase the installed capacity of offshore wind energy to meet Net-Zero targets and improve energy
security, EoL decisions will become increasingly important. As demonstrated by the Middelgrunden and
HR1 OWFs, the industry is likely to see a shift towards extending the operational life of existing assets as
opposed to straight decommissioning (Gokhale 2021). Furthermore, the low energy prices at the start of
2020, as a result of the pandemic, have meant that older plants are considering lifetime extension as a
method of recuperating losses through extended operation (Randall-Smith 2020).
An alternative method of assessing WTG component structural integrity could be to apply a probabilistic
approach. Probabilistic structural integrity analyses, often referred to as structural reliability analysis,
account for the probability distributions of the input load and resistance properties to give the failure frequency
of a component. Probabilistic models incorporate randomness and unlike deterministic methods,
which can demonstrate that failure is not credible, probabilistic methods can demonstrate that the risk of
failure is less than a specified acceptable value, often referred to as the target reliability. The target reliability
is the allowable probability of failure in a given time for a particular a component under a specific failure
mode.

The primary impact will be achieved by industrially-sponsored student research projects. These will be designed to deliver immediate benefits to project sponsors, and the wider sector, forming a critical mass in capacity, knowledge and innovation opportunities.

The Offshore Renewable Energy (ORE) sector has seen rapid growth over recent years, with asset installations and operations increasing significantly. The UK is a global leader in the research, development and engineering in ORE, delivering significant benefits for UK plc. Current UK offshore wind installed capacity is in excess of 5GW and is forecasted to grow to around 10GW by 2020, with expected capacity increases of 1GW/year until 2030. Across Europe, installations (excluding the UK) exceed 6GW capacity, with a further 9GW envisaged before 2020 and a growth rate of 2.5 GW/year up to 2030. Whilst offshore wind is at an industrial stage where it creates new jobs right now, tidal and wave energy hold the potential to further mature to provide the benefits from commercial deployments by 2040. ORE generation complements the low carbon energy portfolio, reducing CO2 emissions.

The sector will drive substantial economic benefit to the UK, provided development, research and training can keep up with the sector. Economic analysis conducted for the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland shows that 3FTE construction job years are created per MW of offshore wind deployed, and a further 0.6FTE are created through ongoing operations and maintenance, creating thousands of jobs per GW/year. Analysis by the ORE Catapult found that current offshore wind projects have an average 32% UK content. By 2040 the UK is to increase this content in areas of strength such as blade and tower manufacture, cable supply and O&M, by providing the needed investment, development and skills training. Supply chain analysis projects that 65% UK content could be possible by 2030, with further export opportunities, estimated to be worth £9.2bn per year by 2030. The current GVA to the UK per GW installed (at 32% UK content) is £1.8bn and estimates suggest a possible increase to £2.9bn by 2030. Future UK employment in the ORE sector has been modelled by Cambridge Econometrics. By 2032 the sector could support 58,000 FTE jobs in the UK, with 21,000 FTE jobs direct employment (up from 10,000 FTEs jobs currently) and another 37,000 FTE additional indirect jobs.

IDCORE will contribute to and improve ORE supply chain development, by providing dedicated R&D support to SMEs and developers, building industry and investor confidence and working with investors and asset owners. The program will result in new technical solutions, enhanced O&M service offerings and enhanced engineering design and analysis tools for the benefit of the industry partners and the wider sector.

The role of government strategy and policy development will be a crucial element of the training provided to IDCORE students. Used within their projects, and in interactions with sponsors, this knowledge will improve the outcomes for their work making it relevant to latest policy developments. It will also drive the development of robust evidence for government, improving policy making. Such engagement is supported by links created between the partners and the Scottish and UK Governments and organisations like Wave Energy Scotland and the International Energy Agency.

The development and demonstration of an effective EngD programme is important for the broader academic community, providing a model for engagement with industry and other stakeholders which is as effective in its impact on SMEs as it is with larger organisations.

The consortium has strong international links across Europe and in Chile, China, India, Japan, Mexico, and the USA. Promoting EngD programmes for renewable energy has the potential to lead to the formation of new sister programmes - expanding opportunities for staff and student exchange.