The Effects of Renewable Essential Materials on Arms Transfers and Militarised Interstate Disputes.

The global energy system is experiencing a major transition due to the growing application of renewable technologies. However, such technologies require large quantities of natural resources to produce power. As such, demand for Renewable Essential Materials (REMs) has also increased. As prior research links natural resources to Militarised Interstate Disputes (MIDs), this thesis investigates the impact of REMs on interstate conflict processes. I argue that the increased exportation of REMs provides states with a source of revenue that leaders can use to buy more weapons. This increase in military capabilities provides states with a greater opportunity and willingness to launch an MID; increasing the likelihood that they will do so.

This theory is tested in three inter-related empirical chapters using panel data for states in sub-Saharan Africa between 1995 and 2014. In the first empirical chapter, I directly examine the arguments made. The results show that the increased exportation of REMs reduces the level of Major Conventional Weapons (MCWs) that states import. Moreover, REMs do not impact the likelihood that states will initiate an MID.

I then investigate whether the observed results vary between different regimes. I argue that the hypothesised effect only occurs in personalist and non-personalist autocracies as REMs provide economic incentives to refrain from purchasing more weapons. As the survival of autocratic regimes is dependent upon a strong military, leaders have the required motivations to overrule such financial incentives. The results show that my original findings hold for all regimes.

Finally, I examine whether the effect of REMs varies for the transfer of MCWs and Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALWs). MCWs are expensive and possibly unaffordable with REM-based revenue. SALWs by contrast are more affordable. The results show that the increased exportation of REMs has no effect upon the transfer of SALWs for all regimes.