The blue mussel Mytilus edulis as an indicator species for modelling marine connectivity in Scotland

Mussels provide a range of ecosystem services, however populations are declining, with potential stressors including ocean acidification, global warming, and changing predator-prey dynamics. It is crucial to understand the resilience of this key species, its ability to recover and recolonise, and its potential response to these and other threats. This project addresses the resilience of blue mussel at large spatial scales with models capable of representing the population dynamics of the species within locales and also dispersal between locales.

Models will be built using a combination of "social" network modelling and metapopulation dynamic approaches. By identifying network features which are at risk or crucial as corridors between patches, targets for focus conservation and surveillance will be identified. These models will address a knowledge gap: Hydrological models typically focus in detail and with high computational complexity on water flow, without addressing long-term population dynamics. We will use outputs from hydrological models to inform our metapopulation model, and parameterise using genetic data and sampling data where available, particularly from related projects.